The latest reports from Pakistan's Indus River System Authority (IRSA) reveal a significant decline in the flow of Indus water from India to Pakistan, particularly impacting the Sindh province where water releases dropped by 16.87% compared to the same period last year.

On June 16, only 1.33 lakh cusecs were released to Sindh, down from 1.6 lakh cusecs, while Punjab province also saw a reduction to 1.26 lakh cusecs from 1.29 lakh cusecs, a 2.25% decrease. This shortfall is severely affecting the sowing of Kharif (monsoonal) crops, as the water available in rivers and reservoirs is insufficient, and the monsoon is still weeks away, deepening the crisis for farmers.

The reduction in water flow follows India's suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty after the April 22 Pahalgam terror attack, which resulted in 26 deaths. The treaty, in place since 1960 and brokered by the World Bank, had governed the sharing of six rivers between the two countries, granting India rights over the three eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) and Pakistan access to the three western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab).

With the treaty suspended, India has also stopped sharing river water level data with Pakistan, raising concerns about Pakistan’s preparedness for potential floods, as it can no longer anticipate sudden increases in water flow from upstream.

The situation is exacerbated by India’s efforts to maximise its use of the Indus system’s western rivers, including plans for new canals and dam projects to divert excess water for domestic use, further reducing the flow to Pakistan.

As a result, Pakistan is now discharging more water than it receives, leading to a critical imbalance and pushing major reservoirs like Mangla and Tarbela close to their dead storage levels, where water cannot be drained by gravity. Experts warn that unless the monsoon arrives soon, the water shortage could worsen, threatening both irrigation and drinking water supplies, especially in Punjab and Sindh, Pakistan’s key agricultural provinces.

Pakistan has formally protested the suspension, arguing that India cannot unilaterally abrogate the treaty, but India maintains its stance, linking any reconsideration to Pakistan ending support for cross-border terrorism. In the meantime, the ongoing water crisis is expected to have a severe impact on Pakistan’s agricultural output and food security, particularly as the country faces a predicted heatwave that will further strain water resources.

Based On A NDTV Report