For nearly three years, Russia has firmly established itself as India’s top crude oil supplier, consistently holding over a 35% share in the country’s oil import basket. This marks a dramatic shift from pre-2022, when Russian oil accounted for less than 2% of India’s imports.

The transformation was driven by Western sanctions on Russia following the Ukraine conflict, which redirected discounted Russian barrels to Asian buyers like India and China, as per a report by Sputnik India.

Amid intensifying hostilities between Israel and Iran, the strategic significance of Russian oil for India has grown. The ongoing Middle East crisis has heightened risks for global oil supply, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint handling about a fifth of the world’s oil and roughly 60% of India’s Middle Eastern crude imports. Any disruption here could severely impact India, which relies on imports for nearly 80% of its crude requirements.

Unlike Gulf oil, Russian crude reaches India via alternative routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Urals crude is shipped from Russia’s Baltic and Black Sea ports, typically transiting the Suez Canal or rounding the Cape of Good Hope, while ESPO and Sokol grades are shipped directly from Russia’s Far East to India’s eastern coast. This logistical detachment insulates Russian supplies from immediate fallout if regional tensions escalate, providing a critical buffer for India’s energy security.

In April and May 2025, India imported over 1.9 million barrels per day (mbd) of Russian oil, with Russian grades accounting for more than 38% of total imports—reaching a 10-month high. These volumes have helped India maintain refinery throughput and shield domestic fuel prices from extreme volatility, even as insurance and freight costs for Gulf oil have surged due to the regional crisis. Russian Urals crude, often priced below the G7’s $60-per-barrel cap, has also delivered significant cost savings for Indian refiners, improving margins and supporting economic stability.

If the conflict in the Middle East intensifies and the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, experts anticipate that India will lean even more heavily on Russian barrels, especially Urals and ESPO grades, which are already embedded in India’s procurement and refining systems.

While India would also diversify toward other tested routes—such as imports from the United States, West Africa, and Latin America—these alternatives entail higher freight costs and longer voyage times. Russian oil, therefore, remains the most reliable and cost-effective option in the near term.

India’s strategy has evolved to prioritise energy security over cost efficiency. The country has added flexibility by settling Russian oil purchases in alternative currencies like yuan or dirhams, further enhancing resilience against market shocks. Despite narrowing discounts, Russian crude continues to offer India a strategic advantage—providing stable supply at affordable rates.

While the likelihood of a complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains low due to geopolitical and economic deterrents, even a brief disruption could send Brent crude prices soaring above $100 per barrel and threaten the continuity of global supply chains. In this volatile environment, Russian oil is expected to expand its share in India’s crude mix, reinforcing its role as a vital buffer against external shocks.

Russia’s oil supplies have become indispensable for India, offering both logistical and economic advantages amid escalating Middle East tensions. This partnership not only mitigates the risks posed by geopolitical instability but also underpins India’s broader strategy of diversification and adaptive procurement to ensure uninterrupted energy flows.

Based On Sputnik India Report