From October 2025, the Indian Air Force's (IAF) fighter squadron strength will reduce to 29 squadrons, nearing parity with Pakistan Air Force’s (PAF) 25 squadrons, which is a cause for concern given China’s much larger fleet of 66 squadrons. Each squadron typically includes 18 to 20 jets, meaning IAF will have roughly 522 fighter jets compared to Pakistan's 450, while China possesses nearly 1,200 aircraft, reported Rudroneel Ghosh of TOI.

The immediate reason for this dip is the retirement of IAF's last two MiG-21 squadrons in September 2025 after over six decades of service, a plane that has been progressively phased out due to obsolescence. The total IAF squadron count has already fallen below the authorized number of 42, now at an all-time low of 29–31 squadrons.

This decline is compounded by the retirement plans of other older fighter models such as the Jaguar, MiG-29, and Mirage-2000 over the next decade. Without replacements, these retirements could drop squadron strength further to 25 by 2035, equal to Pakistan’s current strength.

This projection underscores the urgency of IAF modernization to avoid a critical capability gap, especially considering India's two-front security challenges against Pakistan and China.

The scrapping of the Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) deal for 126 jets in 2015 significantly impacted the IAF’s planned expansion. While India procured 36 Rafales afterward and ordered 26 more for the Navy, the shortfall in fighter numbers remains substantial.

Additionally, though plans exist to purchase 114 Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA), no progress has been made so far.

India has also heavily invested in indigenous fighter development with the HAL TEJAS fighter. However, only about two squadrons (38 MK-1 jets) are operational, and upgrades to TEJAS MK-1A and MK-2 variants are delayed due to production, engine supply, avionics integration, and missile system challenges.

The indigenous engine project (Kaveri) failed to meet standards, highlighting the complexity of building modern jet engines domestically. Advanced materials science, especially for critical parts like ceramic-coated turbine blades, remains a bottleneck.

The IAF aims to eventually build a 42-squadron strength by 2035, relying on the ramp-up of indigenous aircraft production, foreign collaborations, and acquisition of advanced aircraft like the proposed 5th generation Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA). However, many of these remain in early development or planning stages, and production timelines have slipped.

Some defence experts speculate that changing warfare paradigms involving drones and UAVs might offset the reduced fighter jets, citing Ukraine’s drone use against Russia as a model. India plans to expand drone usage but must overcome technology and operational challenges.

Still, fighter jets remain crucial for offensive and penetrative capabilities that drones cannot currently match. Hence, the near-parity with Pakistan in fighter squadrons continues to be a strategic concern.

The IAF’s fighter fleet is at a critical junction. Squadron strength will soon match Pakistan’s due to phased retirements and slower replacements, with China significantly outpacing both. Indigenous programs and new acquisitions are vital but currently lagging behind needs.

Without accelerated induction of new jets and overcoming indigenous production challenges, the IAF faces a shrinking combat capability gap that could compromise India's air defence and regional deterrence posture in the coming decade.

Based On A TOI Report