by Dr Punit Saurabh

As reported by various news agencies, India’s latest operational deployment to the South China Sea featured its first joint patrol with the Philippines in the contested waters. This news is not surprising with Philippines gradually accepting India as a bulwark against Chinese aggression soon after President Duterte visited India in 2018.

The currant Philippine Presidential sojourn to India which effectively began on 4th August aimed to take the relation to the next level. Notedly, India had successfully delivered its strategic Brahmos supersonic missiles in a $375 million deal last year and it is presumed that the currant visit would help Philippines cement its relations while strengthening its deterrence against Chinese navy.

It has now been confirmed that Philippines is negotiating with India for the purchase of at least 2 additional batteries of Brahmos Missiles. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. had said in an interview with Firstpost on 7th of August.

“I think we will probably… we are in the process of actually procuring more,” Marcos added.

Beyond supporting the operational deployment in the South China Seas as well as agreeing to sell strategic armaments, India has effectively sent a clear message to Chinese PLAN to stay off the aggressive plans in the contested regions. In recent years India which has lately emerged as a ‘blue water navy’ has carried out naval exercises with most of the nations in the region across all ASEAN countries except Cambodia and Laos which are considered close towards China. It has also delivered 12 offshore ships to Vietnam built in India shipyards, customized to the requirements of Vietnam.

The Thailand Cambodia strife has once again reinforced the latent fear simmering in the region against China which can potentially destabilise the region as seen in its tacit support towards Cambodia in insinuating the conflict. Given India’s rapid ingress in the region among democratic nations and its close bonding with its regional partners including the QUAD, it will continue to play a stabilizing role in maintaining stability and peace in the region.

What Is Driving East Asian Partners Towards India?

India has been a key partner in execution of the China containment strategy in the Indo-Pacific region which is considered as a major cornerstone in the overall game plan.

India’s ‘look East policy’ which initially revolved around increasing its business influence over ASEAN region went through a rapid metamorphosis and eventually turning into “ACT EAST” and SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) policy thanks to repetitive Chinese ingress in the ASEAN territorial regions.

India has remained strong strategic partner to its Eastern counterpart in maintaining peace and stability in the region while advocating for open sea lanes and ‘freedom for navigation’. This runs contrary to the viewpoint held by China given their repeated incursions in the East Asian and South China sea region. India’s plan gels well with the US plan to accelerate strategic engagement with effected nations which effectively counters China in the high seas specially in the contested region.

In the backdrop of an increasingly belligerent China , India has become the de facto ‘net security guarantor’ in the region while building deterrence capability of key East Asian nations. India naval engagements along with its QUAD partners now stretch beyond the Straits of Hormuz, spreading its reach from Diego Garcia all across the South China sea towards Okinawa, closely monitoring the sea routes through the Andamans strategically positioned Far East command.

It is this strategic bonhomie emerging between India and US along with regional partners, which provides solace to Philippines and other likeminded democratic nations of their ability to counter Chinese expansionism. Any internal disruption between partners will have a debilitating impact on all partnering countries against Chinese expansionism.

Challenges To The US -India Bonhomie And Impact On East Asian Nations

The challenges to the strategic partnership between US and India are few and far between yet, they cannot be ignored. India’s latent gravitation towards China (though temporary in nature), normalizing its relationship with the nation and ending the sustained estrangement in the backdrop of the Doklam conflict, pleads for an urgent look in the manner the US seeks to engage India in future.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict has led to a serious fallout with both nations having their own set of expectations for each other. The recent tariff game plan by the Trump administration has soured the relation with India in the short term with prospects of a widening rift may not be ruled out in future as the news of cancellation of the visiting team from US involved with trade talks with Indian Government sets in.

A sustained trust deficit may impact the sustainability of QUAD as well as bear a negative impression on the American defence exports to India. As the news of another secondary tariff on India sets in taking the total tariff imposed to 50% by the White house, India is perturbed beyond doubt. Consequently, it has now been known that the Indian Prime Minister has firmed up a visit to China after a gap of 7 years to take part in the multilateral forum while preparing to host Vladimir Putin this year.

It is also learnt that India has quietly decided not to go for additional P-6 Boing Poseidon Submarine hunters as was planned earlier. And to signal its intent no end, it has already rushed its National security Adviser Ajit Doval to meet the Russia President and firm up crude oil as well as defence purchases. 

India will also host the Brazilian as well as Japanese PM as well as couple of important Heads of states this year. Hopefully US realizes the fact that an increasingly powerful China would require more then the support of democratic nations like India to act as a leverage in the Eastern hemisphere. Thus, pushing India too long in favour of Pakistan will have negative consequences for US

Dr. Punit Saurabh is an Assistant Professor at Institute of Management, Nirma University and his subjects of research varies from international relations and International Business. He shares opinion pieces for Taiwan Times, Raksha Anirveda defence journal, Nikkei Asian review, US Naval Institute, IDN as well as other contemporary research journals. He can be reached at punit@nirmauni.ac.in. his essay reflects author's opinions alone