The Yarlung Zangbo dam project by China, which will surpass the Three Gorges Dam with a capacity of around 70 gigawatts, is a massive hydropower endeavour located in Tibet on the upper Brahmaputra river.

This project has raised significant geopolitical concerns because it gives China strategic control over the river water that flows downstream into India and Bangladesh, affecting millions of people who rely on the river for agriculture, drinking water, and livelihoods.

China's upstream position allows it to potentially weaponize the water flow, manipulating the timing and volume of water released to exert pressure or gain political leverage over downstream countries. 

This capability is especially sensitive given the already heightened tensions in the region. Experts fear China could create droughts or floods downstream by regulating the dam’s discharge, a form of water diplomacy or coercion that could dramatically impact India's north-eastern states like Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, and further into Bangladesh.

India is responding defensively with its own Siang Upper Multipurpose Project (an 11,000 MW dam in Arunachal Pradesh), but this project faces environmental concerns and local resistance, constraining India’s ability to counterbalance China’s upstream advantage fully.

Due to the fundamental asymmetry—with China hydrologically upstream and authoritarian in decision-making, and India downstream facing democratic constraints—Beijing retains significant strategic advantage regardless of India’s measures.

China claims the project is part of its renewable energy transition and carbon-neutral goals by 2060 and insists it has engaged in hydrological monitoring cooperation with downstream countries for flood prevention and mitigation.

However, transparency is limited, and the lack of a comprehensive water-sharing agreement between China and India exacerbates mistrust.

The scale of Chinese hydropower development in Tibet is immense: since 2000, nearly 193 projects have been built or authorized, with many still in planning. These large-scale projects threaten to displace over 1.2 million residents and disrupt sacred sites.

The Yarlung Zangbo dam stands as a symbol of both China's infrastructural power and its readiness to use water resources as geopolitical tools in South Asia.

The Yarlung Zangbo dam project emphasizes China's strategic intent to harness water resources as leverage in regional diplomacy, intensifying water security concerns for downstream countries like India and Bangladesh and marking a significant moment in the geopolitics of South Asian water resources.

Based On ANI Report