Armenia is reportedly poised to sign a significant defence agreement with India for the acquisition of Hindustan Aeronautics Limited’s (HAL) Su-30MKI multirole fighter jets.

The deal, as reported by News.Az citing Indian Defence News, marks a major expansion of India–Armenia military cooperation and reflects Yerevan’s growing interest in diversifying its defence sources beyond Russia.

Sources indicate that the agreement is now in advanced negotiation stages, with the package valued between 2.5 and 3 billion USD. Initial deliveries are expected to cover 8 to 12 aircraft, with a possible phased expansion depending on future operational needs and financial considerations. The deal is set to include pilot training, ground support systems, weapons integration, and a dedicated maintenance framework.

The delivery schedule reportedly aligns with HAL’s current production line for the Indian Air Force, with dispatches expected to commence by late 2027 and conclude by 2029. Armenia’s air force, which currently lacks advanced multirole fighter capability, is expected to gain a substantial boost in deterrence and strike potential through this acquisition.

This development comes as Azerbaijan strengthens its own aerial fleet with the induction of 40 JF-17C Block-III fighters, jointly developed by Pakistan and China. Analysts interpret Yerevan’s move as a calculated response to maintain regional air power equilibrium in the South Caucasus.

Over the past five years, Armenia has steadily deepened defence cooperation with India. Notable contracts have included the procurement of the Pinaka multi-barrel rocket system, Swathi counter-battery radars, and advanced anti-tank guided munitions, all contributing to Armenia’s broader military modernisation program.

The prospective Armenian variant of the Su-30MKI is expected to feature several indigenous Indian systems. These include DRDO’s Uttam active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar, Astra Mark-1 and Mark-2 beyond-visual-range air-to-air missiles, and the latest indigenous electronic warfare and defensive aids suites. Such customisation would not only enhance combat effectiveness but also reflect India’s evolving capacity for export-standard defence innovations.

Strategically, the deal reinforces India’s emergence as a reliable defence partner for smaller nations seeking advanced yet cost-effective military platforms outside traditional Western or Russian supply chains. It also strengthens New Delhi’s influence within Eurasia, a region increasingly shaped by shifting power alignments and competitive arms acquisitions.

Geopolitical Analysis

Armenia’s potential Su-30MKI acquisition from India carries bearings beyond a mere arms transaction, reshaping regional power dynamics in the South Caucasus. The move comes at a time when Azerbaijan, backed by both Turkey and Pakistan, has been actively reinforcing its military capabilities and asserting strategic dominance following the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

For Yerevan, the Su-30MKI deal with India signals a conscious effort to break away from decades of near-exclusive reliance on Russian platforms. Armenia views India as a dependable defence partner capable of delivering high-performance systems without the geopolitical strings often attached to supplies from Moscow. The choice also allows Armenia to access advanced sensors and missiles developed indigenously in India, thereby modernising its capabilities at a lower cost than Western systems.

For New Delhi, the agreement strengthens its strategic outreach to the Eurasian corridor, positioning India as a credible arms supplier west of the Caspian. The growing partnership with Armenia also indirectly serves India’s interests in countering the Pakistan–Turkey military nexus that extends support to Azerbaijan. By aligning with Yerevan, India subtly fortifies a geopolitical counterbalance without direct involvement in the regional conflict.

Azerbaijan, meanwhile, is expected to perceive the development as a direct challenge to its expanding airpower, particularly given the symbolic contrast between Indian-built Su-30MKIs and Pakistani-origin JF-17Cs. Analysts foresee a potential acceleration in Baku’s future procurement programmes—possibly with Turkish or Chinese collaboration—to uphold its aerial advantage.

If concluded, the deal would mark a new phase in Eurasian defence alignments, establishing India not merely as a supplier but as a stakeholder in regional stability. Armenia’s bolstered aerial capacity, complemented by other Indian-origin systems such as Pinaka and Swathi, would solidify its deterrence posture and redefine how smaller states in the post-Soviet sphere approach defence partnerships in the coming decade.

Azerbaijani News