A dramatic realignment in Europe’s fighter procurement is unfolding, with France’s Rafale on track to eclipse the F-35 Lightning II in a pivotal Portuguese tender. This is the fourth major instance where European states reconsider reliance on American hardware amid strategic doubts and a drive for greater autonomy.

The latest developments centre on Portugal, which initially showed interest in Lockheed Martin’s fifth-generation F-35 jets. However, growing apprehensions over delivery setbacks, fiscal constraints, and strict U.S. control protocols are pushing Lisbon towards the Rafale.

This shift is heavily influenced by the recent performance of Dassault Aviation, the French manufacturer, which has amplified its marketing campaign in Europe.

The Rafale’s blend of multirole capabilities—spanning air-to-air dominance, ground attacks, and advanced reconnaissance—has already won contracts in Greece, Croatia, and beyond Europe in Egypt. Analysts point to its proven versatility as a decisive factor, further reinforced by Dassault’s willingness to transfer technology and share maintenance rights, a major draw for sovereignty-minded nations.

Portugal’s Defence Minister, Nuno Melo, has openly signalled his receptiveness to the Rafale package. The prospective deal includes training centres on Portuguese soil alongside joint exercises, offering tangible benefits for the local defence sector.

Should the agreement proceed, over €5 billion could flow into the French economy, while Portugal stands to significantly upgrade its F-16 fleet.

French policy, championed by President Emmanuel Macron, continues to stress “buy European” defence. Macron has openly encouraged allies to prioritise European platforms, citing risks in over-reliance on American technology subject to political controls and export restrictions. This rhetoric is gaining support, especially as supply chain fragilities become evident across NATO members.

Critics of the F-35 point to its operational opacity, citing restricted access to mission-critical software and dependencies on American-based logistics. These are viewed as significant strategic liabilities, particularly against the backdrop of growing hybrid threats from Russia and emerging global players.

The Rafale, in contrast, boasts an effective combat radius of 1,800 kilometres and seamless integration with cutting-edge MBDA Meteor missiles. Its sensor fusion capabilities rival those of the F-35, all while framed within an independent, export-friendly architecture that reassures buying nations they retain control.

Dassault’s production line is being scaled up to deliver 25 fighters annually by 2025, directly addressing concerns over F-35 backlogs. European states, eager for timely fleet upgrades, see this as a logical solution. The industrial gains are equally attractive, fostering networks for joint maintenance, training, and operational integration.

Still, U.S. officials highlight the F-35’s unmatched networking capacity and combat data-sharing, warning that a fragmented European aerospace market could weaken overall NATO interoperability and cohesion.

A fourth high-profile Rafale win would validate France’s push for defence sovereignty and set a precedent for other holdouts. Observers note that the Netherlands and Romania may soon revisit their own procurement strategies in light of Portugal’s example.

If concluded by mid-2026, the deal will represent a watershed for France’s export ambitions and reframe Europe’s airpower landscape. For prospective buyers, the implications are clear: securing technological independence now ranks alongside raw combat capability in shaping national defence decisions.

International Agencies