The Ecological Threat Report 2025 by the Sydney-based Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) has warned that India’s ability to alter flows in the Indus River could deepen Pakistan’s water scarcity and hit its heavily irrigated farmlands.

Around 80% of Pakistan’s agricultural activity depends on the Indus basin’s waters, making the country particularly vulnerable to even minor upstream adjustments by India.

According to the report, while India cannot entirely stop or divert the Indus waters under international norms, technical modifications in dam operations—especially during the summer months—could still drastically affect water supply in Pakistan’s populated plains.

These areas form the core of its food production and are already facing stress due to climate change and dwindling water reserves.

The IEP noted that Pakistan’s water storage capacity remains alarmingly low, limited to roughly 30 days of river inflow. This structural weakness means the country has little buffer in the event of reduced Indus water flow. "Pakistan’s densely populated plains could face severe water shortages, particularly in the dry and winter seasons, if flows were curtailed,” the report warned.

The current situation follows India’s decision in April 2025 to place the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in abeyance after the Pahalgam terror attack in Kashmir, which New Delhi attributed to Pakistan-backed militants. India stated that the suspension would continue until Pakistan demonstrably renounces cross-border terrorism.

New Delhi has also indicated it may redirect portions of the Indus and its tributaries for domestic use, citing strategic and developmental priorities.

The IEP findings suggest that the suspension of the IWT could alter regional hydro-politics. In a further geopolitical twist, China expanded its support for the Mohmand Dam project in Pakistan in May 2025, presenting it as a counterbalance to India’s move.

Chinese state media characterised the acceleration of the dam’s construction as solidarity with Pakistan amid what it called India’s “water threats.” Beijing’s stance reflects its own delicate position on transboundary rivers such as the Brahmaputra.

The report also noted the new strategic dynamic created by the Pakistan–Saudi Arabia defence agreement signed in September 2025. The treaty obliges both nations to assist each other in case of external aggression.

While primarily seen as a pact extending nuclear deterrence to Riyadh, the agreement also signals that Saudi Arabia could back Pakistan diplomatically or militarily if tensions with India escalate over water issues.

Taken together, these developments underline how the Indus basin has evolved from a shared ecological resource into a potential flashpoint in South Asia’s broader strategic contest, where water security, counterterrorism, and regional alliances are becoming ever more tightly interlinked.

Based On News18 Report