A US think tank, the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), has issued a stark warning in its Conflicts to Watch in 2026 report, highlighting a moderate likelihood of renewed armed conflict between India and Pakistan next year.

The assessment stems from a survey of American foreign policy experts and points to heightened terrorist activity in Kashmir as the primary trigger. Despite a fragile ceasefire holding since May 2025, regional tensions remain palpably high.

The chain of events traces back to the Pahalgam terror attack on 22 April 2025, where Pakistan-sponsored militants killed 22 to 26 civilians, mostly tourists, in Indian-administered Kashmir.

India responded decisively on the night of 6-7 May with Operation Sindoor, a tri-services precision strike operation launched from Indian soil targeting nine terror hideouts of Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed, and Hizbul Mujahideen across Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. Indian officials reported over 100 terrorists neutralised, with deliberate avoidance of civilian and military structures, though Pakistan claimed civilian casualties.

Pakistan retaliated with drone swarms—up to 300-400 across 36 locations—and missile strikes on Indian cities and military sites, alongside heavy weapons fire along the Line of Control. This prompted further Indian counter strikes, including the destruction of Pakistan's HQ-9 air defence system and precision missile hits on multiple Pakistan Air Force bases.

Satellite imagery from Maxar Technologies confirmed damage at Nur Khan in Rawalpindi, Mushaf in Sargodha, Bholari, and Shahbaz in Jacobabad, with Pakistani officials later admitting strikes on Nur Khan that injured personnel and wrecked infrastructure.

The four-day mini-war saw significant losses on the Pakistani side, including at least four F-16 jets, a Saab 2000 Erieye AWACS, a C-130, radars, and drones like Bayraktar TB2 at bases such as Rafiqui, Murid, and others.

Pakistan's military leadership, under pressure, sought de-escalation; on 10 May, their Director General of Military Operations contacted his Indian counterpart, leading to a ceasefire agreement. The Indian Army later released footage underscoring the operation's success and Pakistan's plea to halt hostilities.

Even with the ceasefire in place, security challenges persist in Jammu and Kashmir. Intelligence agencies report over 30 Pakistani terrorists active in the Jammu region, having shifted to higher mountain areas in Kishtwar and Doda to evade detection amid snowbound conditions during Chillai Kalan, the harshest 40-day winter phase. These militants exploit winter for infiltration and regrouping, pressuring locals for sustenance, though support has dwindled.

Indian security forces have abandoned traditional winter lulls, deploying winter warfare units with drones, thermal imagers, and sensors for a "surveillance-sweep-surveillance" doctrine across valleys and ridges. Operations continue relentlessly in harsh weather to eliminate pockets and prevent movement, establishing forward bases in high-altitude zones. This intensified posture signals that adverse conditions will no longer shield terrorists.

Both nations are now racing to bolster defences. India cleared procurement worth ₹79,000 crore on 29 December 2025 via the Defence Acquisition Council, chaired by Rajnath Singh, encompassing suicide drones, Astra MK-2 air-to-air missiles, Pinaka rockets, guided bombs, radars, and high-altitude naval surveillance drones. These indigenous systems aim to enhance combat readiness across domains, particularly in the Indian Ocean region.

Pakistan, reeling from Operation Sindoor setbacks, has turned to allies for urgent upgrades. Talks with China and Turkey focus on new drones—including Bayraktar models—and air defence systems, amid revelations of Beijing providing real-time intelligence during the conflict.

China reportedly treated the skirmish as a "live lab" to test weapons against Indian systems, which ultimately according to international defence analyst failed miserably. It was a true vindication of India's technological prowess and maturity and also a testimony to the rigorous testing process being adopted by both government labs and the private defence industry.

The CFR report also flags a parallel risk: armed clashes between Pakistan and Afghanistan in 2026, driven by resurgent cross-border militant attacks along the Durand Line, compounded by recent firefights, trade collapse, and diplomatic strains.

For India-Pakistan, the think tank deems US interests minimally affected, yet the volatility underscores South Asia's fragility. Ongoing procurements and terror threats suggest the ceasefire remains a tenuous pause rather than a resolution.

Agencies