Baloch leader, Mir Yar Baloch, has issued a stark warning to India's External Affairs Minister, S Jaishankar, claiming that China may soon deploy troops in Balochistan as part of its deepening alliance with Pakistan.

In an open letter dated 1 January 2026 and shared on X, Baloch described this potential move as a profound threat to both Balochistan and India. He urged immediate action to bolster Baloch resistance forces amid advancing phases of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

Balochistan, a resource-rich province in southwestern Pakistan, has long been a hotspot of separatist insurgency. Baloch leaders, including Mir Yar Baloch, accuse Islamabad of decades-long repression, state-sponsored terrorism, and human rights abuses against the estimated 60 million Baloch people. The letter frames Pakistan's control as an "illegal occupation" spanning 79 years, calling for its eradication to secure lasting peace and sovereignty.


Mir Yar Baloch positioned himself as a representative of the self-proclaimed "Republic of Balochistan." He highlighted CPEC, a flagship Belt and Road Initiative project traversing Balochistan, as the catalyst for escalation. Beijing and Islamabad have fast-tracked the corridor to its final stages, he claimed, raising fears of direct Chinese military involvement to safeguard investments.

CPEC connects China's Xinjiang region to Pakistan's Gwadar port, promising economic gains but drawing fierce criticism. India opposes it vehemently, arguing that it passes through Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir (PoK), violating its sovereignty. New Delhi has lodged consistent protests, with Minister of State Kirti Vardhan Singh reiterating in Rajya Sabha earlier this year that any expansion involving third countries remains unacceptable.

The Baloch leader warned that without strengthened Baloch defence and freedom forces, Chinese troops could arrive within months. Such a deployment, lacking local consent, would ignite unimaginable regional challenges, he asserted. It could destabilise South Asia, complicating India's security calculus along its western borders and countering New Delhi's strategic interests in the Indian Ocean.

Baloch praised India's Operation Sindoor, launched last year in retaliation to the Pahalgam terror attack that claimed 26 lives. The strikes targeted terror infrastructure in Pakistan and PoK, demonstrating "exemplary courage" against Islamabad-backed threats. This endorsement aligns Baloch aspirations with India's counter-terrorism stance, potentially signalling informal alignment against shared adversaries.

China and Pakistan have dismissed similar allegations, insisting CPEC is purely economic. Beijing views it as vital for regional connectivity, while Islamabad touts job creation and infrastructure. Yet, attacks on Chinese personnel by Baloch militants underscore security vulnerabilities, with Gwadar remaining a flashpoint.

India's geopolitical strategy in the region intertwines Balochistan's plight with broader concerns. New Delhi monitors CPEC's PoK segments closely, viewing them as extensions of Chinese encirclement. Baloch voices like Mir Yar Baloch amplify calls for international scrutiny, echoing past Indian parliamentary references to Baloch human rights.

The letter arrives amid heightened India-Pakistan tensions, following cross-border strikes and terror incidents. Baloch social media campaigns, including trends like "Republic of Balochistan announced," have gained traction, urging UN peacekeeping and even a Baloch embassy in New Delhi. These developments test Pakistan's internal cohesion.

No official responses have emerged from India, China, or Pakistan as of 2 January 2026. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs maintains silence on such appeals, prioritising diplomatic channels. Analysts speculate that while sympathetic to Baloch grievances, New Delhi avoids overt support to prevent escalation.

Balochistan's mineral wealth—copper, gold, and gas—fuels the conflict. Projects like Reko Diq draw Chinese funding, but locals decry exploitation without benefits. Insurgent groups like the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) have intensified attacks, targeting CPEC assets and signalling resistance to foreign footprints.

For India, a Chinese military presence in Balochistan could reshape the Indo-Pacific balance. It might secure Gwadar as a PLA Navy outpost, challenging Indian naval dominance. Baloch warnings thus resonate with New Delhi's Quad partnerships and efforts to counter BRI expansion.

Mir Yar Baloch's appeal invokes historical parallels, likening Baloch struggles to broader anti-colonial fights. He called for Bharat—using the indigenous term—to lead on Baloch sovereignty, framing it as mutual security. This rhetoric blends nationalism with realpolitik.

Pakistan faces a dilemma: quelling Baloch unrest risks alienating allies, while conceding invites disintegration. Beijing, invested billions in CPEC, may push for security guarantees, potentially validating Baloch fears. Regional stability hangs in the balance.

India's consistent PoK stance provides leverage. By highlighting CPEC's illegality, New Delhi isolates the project globally. Baloch advocacy amplifies this narrative, pressuring multilateral forums like the UN.

As tensions simmer, Mir Yar Baloch's letter underscores Balochistan's volatility. It positions the province as a pivot in great-power rivalry, with implications for India's defence posture, energy security, and alliances. Monitoring developments remains crucial for stakeholders.

Based On ANI Report