India faces a pressing challenge in maintaining air superiority, with the Indian Air Force's fighter squadrons dwindling to 29 against a sanctioned strength of 42. Air Chief Marshal A.P. Singh recently emphasised that without a robust military, other national power elements like economic strength diminish in relevance.

This stark reality underscores the urgency of addressing the quantitative gap, particularly as adversaries China and Pakistan modernise their fleets aggressively.

The Ministry of Defence is advancing a proposal for 114 multi-role fighter aircraft under the MRFA programme, predominantly 'Made in India' Rafales from Dassault Aviation in partnership with Indian firms.

Of these, 18 will be procured off-the-shelf in flyaway condition, with the balance assembled domestically, at an estimated cost of ₹3.25 lakh crores, or about $36 billion. An announcement may coincide with French President Emmanuel Macron's visit on 19-20 February 2026.

The Defence Procurement Board cleared the project on 16 January, followed by the Defence Acquisition Council's approval on 12 February, naming Rafale in the Acceptance of Necessity. Negotiations now focus on cost, technology transfer, indigenous content, delivery timelines, and local partners, requiring subsequent Cabinet Committee on Security clearance chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Experts anticipate the final contract may take over a year to sign post-announcement.

Deliveries pose further delays; the initial 18 flyaway jets may arrive around 2032 due to Dassault's commitments elsewhere. Domestic production of the remaining 96, contingent on assembly line setup and local content ramp-up, would similarly commence deliveries in that timeframe. This timeline aligns with indigenous programmes like Tejas Mk2, prompting debates on resource allocation.

This MRFA initiative echoes the 2007 MMRCA tender, where Rafale emerged victorious in 2012 after trials, leading to negotiations for 18 fly-away ready and 108 licensed by HAL. The 2015 NDA government scrapped it, opting for a 36-jet inter-governmental deal delivered by 2022. HAL's exclusion this time stems from its commitments to other projects.

Rafale proved its mettle in Operation Sindoor, jamming Pakistan Air Force frequencies effectively, as noted by Air Marshal Anil Chopra (Retd), MMRCA evaluation committee member. France offers the advanced F4 variant now, upgrading to F5 later, with gallium nitride-based electronic warfare and latest AESA radar, surpassing the IAF's F3R fleet.

Production for the 96 jets targets Dassault Reliance Aerospace Limited's Nagpur facility, following Dassault's majority stake acquisition last September. Partners include TATA Group (already producing fuselages), Mahindra, Dynamatic Technologies, and over 30 suppliers, aiming for 60 per cent indigenous content phased in. Separate pacts cover fuselages and Safran M-88 engines, with MRO in India, including Hyderabad engine overhauls.

The prior 36-jet deal featured India-specific upgrades like Israeli helmet-mounted displays, radar warning receivers, low-band jammers, and weapons including Meteor, MICA, Magic-II missiles, and Hammer bombs used in Operation Sindoor. Similar integrations are expected, enhancing interoperability.

France's refusal to share source code for systems like Thales AESA radar and Modular Mission Computer persists, citing security. While integrations like ASTRA MK-1 and SAAW succeeded, full code denial limits future upgrades, pushing experts towards API-level access for modular integrations. Squadron Leader Vijainder K. Thakur (Retd) advocates delinking ToT from weapons to cut costs and boost readiness.

Critics argue a massive Rafale influx could divert funds from indigenous efforts, with deliveries mirroring Tejas Mk2 timelines into the 2030s. Despite producing 850 MiG-21s domestically, India lacks full aerospace independence, retaining OEM reliance without IPR ownership. Christopher Clary of the Stimson Center notes Rafales mitigate but do not resolve quantitative shortfalls against China, urging AMCA progress.

The IAF's 29 squadrons comprise 13 Su-30MKI, three each MiG-29UPG and Mirage-2000, six Jaguars, two TEJAS MK-1, and two Rafales. Retirements of MiG-29s, Jaguars, and Mirage-2000s loom from 2030, fully by 2035, necessitating Su-30MKI upgrades and potential Su-57 interim buys till AMCA in 2035.

Pakistan boasts 25 squadrons with 450 fighters, including upgraded F-16s to 2040 ($686 million US package), J-10Cs with PL-15 missiles, and J-35A pursuits. China fields nearly 400 J-20s, targeting 1,000 by 2030, plus J-35A and modern J-10/J-16s, exceeding 2,200 platforms. Clary warns India's qualitative edge over Pakistan narrows as China's quantitative superiority grows.

The IAF seeks to diversify from Russian platforms, whose lifecycle costs exceed Western equivalents despite lower upfront prices. Balancing Russia, US, and Europe while accelerating indigenous development frames the Rafale as a bridge. Ultimately, this procurement addresses immediate gaps, buying time for home-grown fighters amid self-reliance goals.

IDN (With Agency Inputs)