Satellite imagery has revealed a significant uptick in military aircraft at Saudi Arabia's Prince Sultan Air Base, a key facility long utilised by United States forces. High-resolution images captured on 21 February 2026 showed at least 43 aircraft parked at the base, a notable increase from the 27 visible just four days earlier on 17 February.

By 25 February, the number had slightly decreased to 38 aircraft, suggesting a temporary surge rather than a permanent redeployment. This base, located in the Saudi desert, has hosted US troops for decades and serves as a critical hub for regional operations.

Among the aircraft spotted on 21 February were 13 Boeing KC-135 Stratotankers, essential for mid-air refuelling, and six Boeing E-3 Sentry planes, better known as AWACS for their airborne warning and control capabilities. Forensic imagery analyst William Goodhind of Contested Ground confirmed these details, noting a total of 29 large, swept-wing aircraft in that image.

In contrast, the earlier 17 February image, which was of medium resolution, revealed only 11 such large aircraft. This rapid build-up aligns with escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran over Iran's nuclear programme.

The Pentagon offered no comment on the matter, adhering to its standard policy of silence on troop and asset movements. Saudi Arabia's government media office similarly failed to respond promptly to enquiries.

This activity occurs against a backdrop of Saudi Arabia's recent assurance to Iran that it would not permit its airspace or territory to be used for strikes against Tehran. The kingdom, a steadfast US ally, is navigating delicate relations amid indirect negotiations between the US and Iran.

Oman, acting as mediator, reported progress in Thursday's talks, though no major breakthrough emerged to forestall potential US military action. Omani Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr Albusaidi indicated that consultations in national capitals would precede resumed negotiations, with technical discussions slated for Vienna next week.

US President Donald Trump heightened the rhetoric on 19 February, demanding Iran strike a deal within 10 to 15 days or face "really bad things." His comments underscore the urgency as diplomatic windows narrow.

Broader satellite observations from early February compared to January images also indicate a regional build-up of US aircraft and equipment across the Middle East. This pattern suggests heightened preparedness amid the standoff.

Meanwhile, Iran has been captured on satellite imagery repairing and fortifying key sites, including a sensitive military installation reportedly struck by Israel in 2024. Such moves signal Tehran's own defensive posture.

Prince Sultan Air Base's revival for US operations dates back to recent years, following a hiatus after the withdrawal of forces in 2003. It now hosts advanced assets, bolstering US power projection in the Gulf.

The presence of KC-135 tankers points to extended mission capabilities, enabling fighter jets and bombers to operate far beyond normal ranges without landing. AWACS platforms, meanwhile, provide real-time surveillance and command over vast areas.

Forensic analysis like Goodhind's relies on open-source satellite data from commercial providers, offering unprecedented transparency into military dispositions. Such insights have become routine in modern conflict monitoring.

Saudi Arabia's stance reflects its balancing act: deepening security ties with the US while avoiding entanglement in direct confrontation with Iran, a regional rival with whom it shares economic interests in oil markets.

Oman's mediation role leverages its neutral diplomacy and borders with both Iran and the UAE, positioning it as a trusted intermediary. Vienna's involvement hints at links to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action framework.

Trump's timeline evokes memories of his first-term "maximum pressure" campaign, which included sanctions and the 2020 killing of General Qasem Soleimani from Iraqi soil. Current posturing may aim to coerce concessions on uranium enrichment limits.

Iran's site fortifications could include underground bunkers or anti-air defences, responding to Israeli strikes that exposed vulnerabilities. This mirrors a shadow war of attrition between Jerusalem and Tehran.

Regional allies like the UAE and Israel closely monitor these developments, given their own tensions with Iran. A US strike could ripple through Gulf security architectures, including the Abraham Accords.

Economically, oil prices have ticked upwards amid the uncertainty, with Brent crude sensitive to any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global supply flows.

Diplomatic off-ramps remain viable, but satellite evidence of force posture shifts underscores the high stakes. As talks resume, the aircraft count at Prince Sultan may serve as a barometer of Washington's resolve.

Reuters