US President Donald Trump has escalated his trade policy by raising proposed global tariffs to 15 per cent, up from 10 per cent announced just a day prior.

This move follows a US Supreme Court ruling that struck down his use of emergency powers under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose sweeping tariffs, deeming them unconstitutional in a 6-3 decision.

Trump responded swiftly with an executive order on Friday night, invoking Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act to introduce the initial 10 per cent global import tax. He justified the hike to 15 per cent in a social media post, lambasting the court's verdict as "ridiculous, poorly written, and extraordinarily anti-American." The tariffs, however, carry a strict 150-day limit unless Congress legislates an extension.

For India, the implications appear contained rather than catastrophic. Last year, New Delhi faced 25 per cent reciprocal tariffs from the US, which ballooned to 50 per cent after Trump slapped an extra 25 per cent duty over India's purchases of Russian oil—deemed to fuel the Ukraine conflict.

In early February 2026, tensions eased when Trump reduced India's reciprocal tariffs to 18 per cent following a bilateral framework for an interim trade deal. India's concessions included pledges to curb Russian oil imports, shift sourcing towards US goods, and commit to large-scale purchases in energy, technology, and agriculture exceeding $500 billion.

The Supreme Court ruling initially promised a rollback to pre-Trump levels of about 3.5 per cent for India. Yet Trump's new 15 per cent global baseline, layered atop the existing 18 per cent reciprocal rate, yields an effective tariff of roughly 18.5 per cent—a negligible uptick from the recent agreement.

This marginal adjustment underscores the stability of the US-India interim deal amid Trump's countermeasures. White House clarifications note that nations with trade pacts, like India, see temporary relief before full application, preserving negotiated terms.

Sectors vulnerable to prior tariffs—such as gems, jewellery, textiles, footwear, chemicals, and engineering goods—may face renewed pressure, though exemptions persist for pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, energy, and critical minerals.

India's exports to the US, valued at around $87 billion annually, represent over 55 per cent exposure in affected categories. The Modi government, having traded diplomatic concessions like reduced Russian oil buys for tariff relief, continues monitoring developments.

Geopolitically, India's oil pivot aligns with US priorities, setting a precedent for tariff negotiations. This quid pro quo—zero tariffs on US goods, non-tariff barrier removal, and "Buy American" alignment—bolsters bilateral ties despite global tariff turbulence.

Trump's rhetoric sharpened post-ruling, branding dissenting judges "disloyal lapdogs" while praising Justices Kavanaugh, Thomas, and Alito as "heroes" committed to "Make America Great Again." He vowed further hikes, hinting at layered duties ahead.

Economically, the 15 per cent levy targets balance-of-payments deficits, aiming to repatriate manufacturing jobs. For India, it disrupts supply chains less severely than China's 145 per cent burden or prior 50 per cent peaks on New Delhi.

Longer-term, extension beyond 150 days hinges on Congressional approval amid partisan divides. India's resilient growth trajectory—over 7.5 per cent GDP annually since FY22—positions it to weather shocks better than peers.

Opportunities linger in trade diversification; past Trump tariffs redirected flows from China to India in textiles and chemicals, potentially amplifying "Make in India" under sustained US pressure.

As negotiations evolve, India's strategic restraint—balancing Russian energy ties with US alignment—will prove pivotal. The 18.5 per cent effective rate signals continuity, not crisis, in Indo-US commerce.

Agencies