A brewing conflict involving Iran has thrust India into a precarious diplomatic tightrope, as New Delhi strives to maintain equilibrium between its key partners: the United States, Israel, and Tehran,  Jerusalem Post reported.

The war, sparked by US-Israeli strikes following failed Geneva negotiations, has disrupted vital trade routes, energy supplies, and the livelihoods of millions of Indian expatriates in the Gulf.

Iran's deputy foreign minister, Saeed Khatibzadeh, used India's Raisina Dialogue forum to issue stark warnings, accusing Washington of duplicity and framing the clash as an existential battle.

Khatibzadeh lambasted the Trump administration's pre-war talks as a "cheesy reality show," claiming they masked aggressive intent, including carpet bombing of Iranian targets. He vowed to expel US presence from the Persian Gulf, adopting a calculated "chess mentality" rather than impulsive action. Yet, his tone softened towards India, underscoring the importance of bilateral ties amid escalating tensions.

The stakes for India could scarcely be higher. The nation imports 88 per cent of its crude oil, with half transiting the Strait of Hormuz, now a flashpoint. Approximately nine million Indian workers in the Gulf remit over $50 billion annually—exceeding India's trade surplus with the US. Disruptions threaten India's economy, from soaring fertiliser costs to stranded citizens and crippled aviation links.

Tragedy struck close to home when the Iranian frigate IRIS Dena, recently hosted by the Indian Navy in Visakhapatnam during joint exercises, was sunk near Sri Lanka. Iran decried the incident as an "atrocity at sea," noting the vessel carried 130 unarmed sailors returning from "peace duties." Indian naval assets aided search-and-rescue efforts, highlighting unintended spillover into India's maritime neighbourhood.

New Delhi's response has been notably restrained, bordering on silence regarding the initial US-Israeli strikes. Prime Minister Narendra Modi had addressed Israel's Knesset just a week prior, complicating perceptions of neutrality. India condemned subsequent Iranian missile attacks on Gulf states but issued no formal statement on the opening salvos. Diplomatic missions delayed signing Iranian condolence books until Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri's visit to Tehran's embassy.

Reports of US forces using Indian ports for strikes were swiftly denied by the Ministry of External Affairs, underscoring efforts to evade any operational entanglement. Analysts at Raisina praised this calibrated approach as pragmatic, protecting energy flows, Chabahar Port connectivity, and burgeoning security pacts with Washington and Jerusalem.

Israeli Foreign Minister Gidon Saar, speaking virtually, portrayed Iran as recklessly aggressive, striking over 10 nations including Gulf states and Turkey. He dismissed the regime's sanity, aiming for a long-term threat elimination "written by the Iranian people." Saar confirmed India received no prior briefing, as decisions crystallised post-negotiation failures.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who negotiated in Geneva with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, expressed betrayal, noting abrupt attacks mid-talks. Tehran signals readiness for prolonged conflict, with Supreme National Security Council secretary Ali Larijani insisting Iran did not initiate hostilities. Araghchi dismissed ceasefire prospects and welcomed potential US ground incursions as a "big disaster" for America.

Economic ripples are profound. Tanker traffic through Hormuz has plummeted from 24 ships daily to four, with war-risk insurance premiums surging 50 per cent. Iranian drone strikes halted QatarEnergy's vast LNG and fertiliser facilities, triggering force majeure and global price spikes. India, reliant on Qatari urea feedstock, faces production cuts at fertiliser plants ahead of the June monsoon.

Rice exports suffer too, as Iran and Iraq—buyers of nearly half India's basmati—stockpile amid uncertainty, inflating domestic prices. Aviation chaos compounds woes: Emirates, Qatar Airways, and others suspended flights, stranding tens of thousands of Indians. Carriers reroute via Africa's Cape of Good Hope, inflating costs and delays, with Pakistani airspace already off-limits.

US Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau seized the moment at Raisina, pitching American energy as India's ideal alternative. A 30-day Treasury waiver permits Russian crude purchases, while Brent crude topped $85 per barrel—each dollar rise adding $1.4 billion to India's bill. Ship-tracking reveals Russian tankers diverting to Indian ports.

Criticism mounts within India. Former Navy chief Admiral Arun Prakash decried unnotified US nuclear submarine operations near Indian waters. Analyst Brahma Chellaney labelled the frigate sinking a strategic embarrassment, undermining India's Indian Ocean security provider role. Opposition leader Mallikarjun Kharge questioned New Delhi's silence amid backyard turmoil.

Pakistan, meanwhile, acts as Tehran's diplomatic conduit, securing assurances against Saudi launchpads for anti-Iran strikes. Pro-Iran protests there turned deadly, yet restrained Iranian actions against Riyadh and Oman suggest dialogue's influence. Dubai, per cybersecurity expert Jiten Jain, has managed shocks calmly.

Experts like Harsh V. Pant of the Observer Research Foundation affirm India's tightrope strategy, balancing partnerships while safeguarding interests. Kabir Taneja warns of economic peril, urging oil alternatives for India's ravenous demand. Adelle Nazarian lauds Modi's equipoise amid domestic divides—some protesting, others quietly supportive.

Stockholm International Peace Research Institute's Karim Haggag cautions against historical precedents like Iraq 2002 or the 2018 nuclear deal exit, which bred radicalism. Chicago Council’s Leslie Vinjamuri predicts US pursuit of maximalist aims, viewing regime survival as untenable. As war frays India's lifelines, New Delhi's balancing act grows ever more tenuous.

JP