The New York Times has revealed that the Trump administration’s $1.3 billion push into Pakistan’s mineral wealth is faltering as the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) escalates its insurgency, striking at the very heart of US-Pakistani mining ambitions.

The insurgency has evolved into a middle-class movement, fuelled by resentment over resource plunder and human rights abuses, leaving flagship projects like Reko Diq paralysed.

A high-stakes gamble by Washington to counter Chinese influence in Pakistan’s mining sector was symbolically launched in September last year when Pakistan Army Chief Asim Munir presented President Trump with a wooden box of gems in the Oval Office.

Trump praised Munir as “a very great guy,” and the gesture paved the way for a major US investment in Balochistan, a province rich in copper and gold reserves. The initiative was intended to anchor America’s regional strategy and secure lucrative deals for US companies.

However, the insurgency has placed this economic pivot on a collision course with the BLA, a separatist group fighting for independence in the volatile borderlands of Pakistan, Iran, and Afghanistan. On 31 January, a massive coordinated assault by 500 BLA rebels struck 18 targets across 12 areas, killing at least 58 people.

The attacks targeted military outposts and civilian infrastructure, directly challenging the state’s sovereignty and exposing Pakistan’s inability to secure its territory. Several of these attacks occurred along the transit route to Reko Diq, one of the world’s largest untapped copper and gold deposits, which was intended to be the flagship asset of the US-Pakistani partnership.

The scale of the violence has shaken investor confidence. Barrick Gold, which owns half of Reko Diq, has slowed development until 2027, citing the deteriorating security climate.

The New York Times described the insurgency as a “primary, project-defining risk” rather than a peripheral nuisance. Islamabad’s attempts to project stability have been undermined by verified footage of the January attacks, highlighting systemic security failures.

Compounding the crisis are allegations of widespread human rights abuses by the Pakistani military. Activists claim that over 1,200 people disappeared in the past year alone, accusing the state of using secret abductions to silence dissent.

The rebellion, once led by tribal elders, has transformed into a middle-class militancy driven by educated Baloch youth who believe their land is being plundered. This internal resentment has turned Balochistan into a graveyard for foreign ambition.

Despite Washington designating the BLA as a terrorist organisation, the group continues to wield US-made weaponry abandoned during the 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan.

These arms have been used in suicide bombings and raids, intensifying the insurgency’s lethality. Pakistani officials such as Sarfraz Bugti insist they “can’t negotiate with the barrel of the gun,” but reliance on brute force appears to be radicalising the population further.

For Islamabad, the inability to contain the BLA represents a nightmare scenario. The insurgency threatens to alienate its newest and most powerful investor, undermining both economic ambitions and strategic partnerships.

For Washington, the insurgency has shattered the vision of anchoring its regional strategy to Pakistan’s minerals, tethering it instead to a state unable to secure its borders or appease its citizens.

ANI