India has decided to expand its submarine acquisition plan, moving beyond the earlier proposal of six boats under Project 75(I) to a total of nine conventional diesel-electric submarines in the first phase, as reported by The Print. 

This decision reflects the government’s assessment that the Navy’s underwater fleet will face significant depletion from the late 2030s onwards, as several of the nineteen submarines currently in service are scheduled for decommissioning.

The additional three submarines, whose make is yet to be finalised, will follow the six advanced Air Independent Propulsion (AIP)-equipped vessels being built by Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Limited (MDL) in partnership with Germany’s Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (TKMS).

The contract modalities for Project 75(I) are being finalised and expected to be signed later this year, involving both a commercial agreement and a government-to-government arrangement between India and Germany.

The expansion to nine submarines is intended to strengthen India’s underwater deterrence in the face of rapid naval modernisation by China and Pakistan. China currently operates an estimated sixty-five submarines, a fleet larger than that of the United States, while Pakistan is expected to induct eight Chinese-origin Hangor-class submarines in the coming years.

Indian planners believe that six new submarines alone would be insufficient to maintain the Navy’s edge in the Indian Ocean Region, hence the push for three additional boats under the first phase. The final decision on whether these will be follow-on TKMS boats or additional Scorpene-class submarines built with France’s Naval Group remains pending.

The Scorpene option has remained under consideration despite delays. The Navy had earlier proposed three additional Scorpènes as a stop-gap measure, but price negotiations stalled progress. MDL submitted a bid in August 2023 for three more Scorpene-class submarines under the Buy (Indian) category of the Defence Acquisition Procedure 2020, requiring at least sixty percent indigenous content. 

The initial bid exceeded ₹50,000 crore but was later reduced to around ₹36,000 crore. Former Navy chief Admiral Dinesh Tripathi had indicated in December 2024 that the deal would be signed by January 2025, but the proposal lost momentum as Project 75(I) advanced.

The French government and Naval Group continue to push for a follow-on Scorpene programme, arguing that a fleet of nine boats would make the supply chain more sustainable and cost-effective. The proposed submarines would be larger, more capable, and feature nearly double the mission endurance of the current Scorpene fleet, with expanded storage, accommodation, and weapon load capacity.

Project 75(I) itself is designed to deliver six AIP-equipped submarines with forty-five percent indigenous content in the first boat, rising to sixty percent by the sixth. Deliveries are scheduled to begin seven years after contract signing, with one submarine delivered annually thereafter.

The program is expected to create a robust submarine-building ecosystem involving major private companies, MSMEs, and smaller suppliers, laying the groundwork for Project 76.

Project 76 will mark India’s indigenous conventional submarine program, with at least six next-generation boats built largely with Indian design and technology, similar to the Arihant-class nuclear submarines.

The TKMS-MDL partnership is seen as having an advantage in Project 76, as the expertise and industrial ecosystem generated under Project 75(I) will directly support the indigenous effort.

By contrast, while MDL successfully built six Scorpene-class submarines in partnership with France’s Naval Group, the indigenous content remains below twenty percent once labour and infrastructure costs are excluded. Long-term maintenance concerns also persist, with many critical spare parts for the Scorpene fleet still sourced from France.

This has reinforced the government’s preference for the German partnership, which promises greater technology transfer and industrial self-reliance. Nevertheless, the Scorpene pitch remains strong, with proposals for larger, more capable submarines featuring growth margins for future weapon integration.

India’s long-term plan envisions close to two dozen submarines over the next two decades, including conventional attack submarines, nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs), and ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs).

The expansion of Project 75(I) to nine boats, followed by Project 76, represents a critical step in addressing the shrinking fleet and ensuring that India retains credible underwater capabilities in the face of regional challenges.

Agencies