China’s Defence Spending Hides More Than It Reveals; Outstrips Combined Expenses of India, Japan
China's new Hypersonic Missile DF-17 on display during a military
parade in Beijing
China doesn’t reveal the accurate cost of all its military goods and services,
thus, increasing the inconsistencies and ambiguities about its defence
spending. China is many folds ahead of its regional competitors, and it would
take a significant jump for the regional actors, including India, to catch up
with China
The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) annual National People’s Congress (NPC)
ended last week. Like every year, the first day of the NPC was dominated by
news about China’s defence expenditure. Its national budget projected that
China’s defence spending is expected to rise to 1.45 trillion Yuan (US $229.47
billion) in 2022. This marks a 7.1 per cent increase from 2021 spending, which
was 1.36 trillion Yuan (US $209.2 billion). The People’s Liberation Army’s
(PLA) defence spending has increased by at least 6.6 per cent every year since
the past three decades, and its defence expenditure has increased nearly
six-fold in the past two decades. Interestingly, the 2022 budget marks the
only time that the budget’s growth rate has increased two years consecutively
in the last decade. Currently, China spends more on defence than any other
country except the United States (US).
How To Read China’s Defence Expenditure?
China’s 2019 defence whitepaper outlines three major categories of China’s
defence spending: personnel expenses, capital expenses and training and
sustainment expenses. The white paper highlights that since 2010, China’s
capital expenditure has increased every year. In 2010, China’s capital
expenditure was 33.2 per cent of the total budget, and it grew to 41.1 per
cent of the total expenditure in 2017. Earlier, in the last two decades,
China’s defence spending was roughly equal in all three categories. However,
the rising trend, especially in this decade, aligns with Xi Jinping’s rise as
the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) general secretary.
Interestingly, China’s 2015 defence white paper emphasised that the PLA should
focus more on far seas operations to protect it overseas interests along with
near sea defence. This would require a major investment in the Navy and Air
Force, which are more capital intensive forces than the ground force.
Furthermore, Xi’s armed forces reforms have also emphasised on newer weaponry
to achieve ‘multi-domain integrated joint operations’. Thus, in this decade,
the PLA’s defence expenditure is majorly utilised on commissioning more
advanced and high-tech weapons to achieve regional supremacy and
extra-regional operational capabilities.
What Defence Expenditure Hides?
But these are just conservative estimates that are published by China’s State
Council and Ministry of Finance. Military observers across the world have
questioned these numbers and claim that China hides more than it reveals. For
instance, scholars from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
(SIPRI), International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) and RAND
Cooperation have all claimed that China’s defence expenditure is much higher
than it showcases. Similarly, the US Department of Defence's (DOD) annual
China military power report doesn’t provide a specific assessment but has
repeatedly claimed that China’s military spending could be much higher than
projected.
This is because China’s military expenditure hides major categories of defence
spending. For instance, China’s published numbers don’t account for People’s
Armed Police and Coast Guard expenses (paramilitary forces), which could be
significantly high in all probability. Similarly, it doesn’t account for newer
but capital-intensive areas like China’s space and cyber programmes, nuclear
programmes and defence mobilisation funds. It also doesn’t reveal the
provincial military bases’ operating costs. Furthermore, China’s defence
expenditure also excludes expenditure on disaster relief operations — which is
later to be reimbursed through non-defence related agencies. Finally, China
also doesn’t reveal the accurate cost of all its military goods and services,
thus, increasing the inconsistencies and ambiguities about its defence
spending.
However, China is not the only country to hide its defence expenditure, as
India too doesn’t reveal several components like its defence spending on
space, cyber and nuclear programmes.
Comparing China’s Defence Expenditure
The US DOD report projects a slowdown in China’s economic growth in the next
10 years, thus reducing its capabilities to spend on defence and national
security needs. However, on comparing defence expenditures, it is clear that
China is many folds ahead of its regional competitors, and it would take a
significant jump for the regional actors, including India, to catch up with
China.
For instance, China’s total defence expenditure for 2022 is more than the
combined defence expenditures of India, Japan, Australia, South Korea, and
Taiwan for 2021. However, China’s defence expenditure is around 3.5 times less
than the US annual military budget, thus making the US an important
extra-regional actor in the Indo-Pacific region for balancing China’s rise.
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