The face of terrorism in the Valley is changing. Instead of joining the ranks of Hizbul Mujahideen (HM), Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), militants these days are working in "modules" and are being radicalised "online". Infact, according to additional DGP (Kashmir Zone) Vijay Kumar, "there is no radical structure like earlier when militant groups had a central command and commander-in-chief followed by district-level and local-level commanders. They are working in small modules." In 2022, youths joining militancy in the Valley were 99 compared to 136 in 2021 and three districts of Kashmir reported zero recruitment.

As both Centre and the UT administration try to wean youths away from militancy and bring in a new order of "good governance", power corridors are abuzz with talk of "youth engagement", "self-employment", "investment proposals", "sports infrastructure", "saturation of central schemes", "uptick in tourism", surge of "self help groups" and "women empowerment."

On August 5, 2019, Article 370 was abrogated and J&K was bifurcated into two UTs. The J&K government has taken up many development projects since then but feels that the biggest challenge is to win the "narrative war". According to J&K police, 206 law and order incidents were reported between August 5, 2019 and November 2022 compared to 555 before that.

The New Normal

Will Jammu and Kashmir be able to sustain this new normal? After decades of insurgency and state-sponsored terrorism, it has been only two years since the Valley is witnessing an influx of tourists, investment proposals and fewer suspension of internet services. In 2022, the Valley recorded over 1.4 crore visitors with more than 1 crore of them visiting the Vaishno Devi shrine in Jammu. After the uproar over targeted killing of Kashmiri Pandits and migrants this year, police have stepped up vigil at places where Kashmir Pandits reside. CRPF and the Army are on the alert near industries where migrant labourers work. The owners of these industries have been asked to take extra precaution and install CCTVs on their premises, they added.

Since October 2021, the UT administration has granted permissions for 180 films, songs, documentaries and OTT shooting. After the film policy was tweaked in August last year, it was mandatory to provide security arrangements "free of cost" to enable filmmakers complete their shooting. As per the policy, permission to shoot includes police clearance, which has to be granted within a month of receiving the application. The security team is specially trained to handle film shoots. A J&K administration official told Sunday ET that most of these shooting permits were for low-budget films. But recently Bollywood actor Vicky Kausal was in Kashmir for Megha Gulzar' Sam Bahadur. The film also starts Fatima Sana Sheikh and Sanya Malhotra. Officials said earlier Emraan Hashmi shot for his upcoming film Ground Zero. Film shooting permission is mainly given in Pahalgam, Gulmarg, Srinagar, Bhaderwah and Jammu.

Restoration of Statehood

Not many in the Valley talk about the revocation of Article 370 but are keenly observing the Election Commission's (EC) decisions. Elections were last held in 2014 and since 2018, after the BJP withdrew support from Mehbooba Mufti's PDP, the state has been under central rule. The EC recently published the revised electoral rolls following the delimitation exercise, which resulted in the addition of seven new assembly constituencies in the UT. Six of these were added to the Jammu division and one to Kashmir division. Following the additions, Kashmir region now has 47 assembly seats and Jammu has 43. The EC is yet to announce elections.

As per the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), unemployment rate in November 2022 was 23.9% in J&K, one of the highest in India. Due to marginal presence of the private sector, the government becomes the main source of jobs. Abida Ashraf (25), who runs a women self-help group in Pulwama, says the National Rural Livelihood Mission (NRLM) under the Ministry of Rural Development, started in 2015, has "empowered" women. From 400 SHGs, Pulwama has 2,450 now but she is "uncertain" about the future. "We help unemployed boys and girls but the government should ensure honorarium to such community mobilisers and ensure financial support," Abida said.

Owais Yaqoob (25), who trains boys and girls in martial arts in Pulwama, said the "environment has changed" since 2019 but government "initiatives" to open sports clubs, upgrade stadiums, engage youths, do not ensure employment for youths. Yaqoob recently became the first fighter from Kashmir to win a contract from Matrix fight night but feels "not many facilities" are available for sportspersons.

Mudashir Muzafer was recruited as Rehbar-i-Khel (sports teachers) in 2019 but, he along with 2,474 teachers across J&K, are demanding the seven-year probation period to be reduced to five. "We are responsible for imparting skills and motivating youths to join sports. We used to receive Rs 3,000 per month during the first two years which was increased to Rs 4,000 in the third year. We have made a representation before the LG and administration to reduce the probation period from 7 to 5 years," Muzafer said, speaking on behalf of All J&K Rehbar-i-Khel teachers forum.

Faisal Wagnoo (23) from Srinagar is the football captain of his team, Downtown Heroes FC. Wagnoo says sports clubs are meant to engage "youth energy" so that they do not take "path of violence." According to the J&K administration, every panchayat is required to set up sports clubs and they have earmarked playing fields.

However, J&K chief secretary Arun Mehta says the new industrial policy will bring '75,000 cr that will generate more than 2 lakh jobs. A total of 5 lakh jobs will be generated by the industry and agriculture, said Mehta. On government jobs, the UT administration said it has organised the "largest-ever recruitment drive" and no interviews are conducted up to level 5. From 2019 till November 2022, 29,813 recruitments were carried out. "During the current year, 1,087 gazetted and 4,436 non-gazetted vacancies have been referred to recruiting agencies, 3,175 class-IV vacancies have also been identified," the official added (See BOX).

IT Industry And Security

Internet was suspended on August 5, 2019 and was restored after 18 months in February 2021. Many young entrepreneurs had to either to move out or shut their operations. "The crime rate in J&K is the lowest in the country. The Valley has skilled manpower and the IT industry will bounce back and grow here. We are moving to more normalcy," added the top official.

According to J&K police, incidents of stone pelting are all-time low after many stone pelters were rounded up and action initiated against Jamat-e-Islami (JeI) and Hurriyat on charges of terror funding and money laundering ahead of the removal of Article 370. ADGP Vijay Kumar said incidents of violence and radicalisation among youths have come down in the past two years. He believes militancy can be wiped out from the valley in two years. The security situation has improved but threats of sticky bombs, infiltration of Pakistani militants, use of drones for smuggling of narcotics, arms and ammunition are concerns, he said.