Pakistan's suspension of the landmark 1972 Simla Agreement marks a significant escalation in the deteriorating relations between the two nuclear-armed neighbours. This action, coupled with airspace closure for Indian aircraft, shutting down of the Wagah border crossing, and halting all bilateral trade, represents one of the most severe diplomatic crises between India and Pakistan in recent years.

The suspension comes in direct response to India's own punitive measures, including the freezing of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, following a deadly terror attack in Pahalgam that claimed 26 civilian lives. This report analyses the current crisis, examines the historical significance of the Simla Agreement, and explores the potential implications of its suspension for regional security and bilateral relations.

The current diplomatic crisis between India and Pakistan was triggered by the deadly terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, which resulted in the deaths of 26 civilians. India's response was swift and multifaceted.

On April 23, 2025, following a Cabinet Committee on Security meeting chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India announced a series of punitive measures against Pakistan. These included the immediate closure of the Attari-Wagah border crossing, suspension of the long-standing Indus Waters Treaty, expulsion of Pakistani military attachés, and the revocation of visa clearances for Pakistani nationals.

The Indian government's decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty—a water-sharing agreement dating back to 1960 that had survived multiple wars and conflicts—signalled a significant shift in its approach toward Pakistan. This treaty, brokered by the World Bank, had allocated the waters of the eastern rivers (Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi) to India and the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab) to Pakistan, establishing a framework for cooperation even during periods of heightened tensions. Its suspension represents an unprecedented escalation, leveraging water security as a diplomatic tool against Pakistan.

Pakistan's response came on April 24, 2025, following a National Security Committee meeting that included both civil and military leadership. The committee announced a comprehensive package of retaliatory measures, most notably the suspension of the 1972 Simla Agreement. Additional countermeasures included closing its airspace to Indian aircraft, shutting down the Wagah border for trade, reducing the staff of the Indian High Commission from 55 to 30 personnel by April 30, and expelling Indian military, naval, and air advisers by declaring them persona non grata. These tit-for-tat actions have created a diplomatic stand-off with far-reaching implications for regional stability.

A central tenet of the Simla Agreement was its emphasis on bi-lateralism in resolving disputes, particularly regarding Kashmir. By agreeing to settle differences bilaterally, the agreement effectively side-lined the role of international mediation and United Nations resolutions on Kashmir. The agreement explicitly stated that neither side would seek to alter the Line of Control unilaterally, "irrespective of mutual differences and legal interpretations," and both parties would "refrain from the threat or the use of force in violation of this Line". This provision has been a cornerstone of the relative stability along the LOC for over five decades.

Since its signing, the Simla Agreement has been credited with reducing the frequency of full-scale armed conflicts between India and Pakistan. In the period before the agreement, the two countries fought three major wars (1947-48, 1965, and 1971); since its implementation, they have engaged in only one limited conflict—the Kargil War of 1999. Despite periodic violations of ceasefire along the LOC and persistent tensions, the agreement has provided a diplomatic framework for managing bilateral disputes and preventing their escalation into major military confrontations.

Pakistan's decision to suspend the Simla Agreement carries profound strategic implications for both countries and the broader South Asian region. At its core, this suspension undermines the bilateral framework that has governed India-Pakistan relations for over five decades and potentially opens the door to significant shifts in how both countries approach territorial disputes, particularly regarding Kashmir and the Line of Control.

Former Indian diplomat Syed Akbaruddin has highlighted that Pakistan's announcement effectively means "the agreement to address bilateral differences peacefully is no longer being considered by Pakistan as a binding commitment." This development calls into question the validity of the Line of Control agreement, potentially releasing both countries from the clause that prohibits unilateral changes to the LOC regardless of disagreements or differing legal interpretations. Akbaruddin notes that this "opens up the validity of the LoC which both sides have abided by since 1971" and may free each side from commitments not to unilaterally alter this boundary.

By moving away from the bilateral approach enshrined in the Simla Agreement, Pakistan may be signalling an intent to internationalise the Kashmir issue—a strategy that India has consistently opposed. For decades, India has insisted on handling Kashmir as a strictly bilateral matter, beyond the purview of international mediation. The Modi government reinforced this position in 2015 by explicitly renaming planned dialogues as "comprehensive bilateral dialogue" instead of simply "comprehensive dialogue" to emphasise opposition to third-party intervention.

The suspension also has serious implications for military posturing and security along the Line of Control. Without the restraining influence of the Simla Agreement's provisions against unilateral alteration of the LOC, both countries might feel less constrained in their military operations near the border. Some analysts suggest that if Pakistan no longer adheres to peaceful bilateral resolution mechanisms, Indian policymakers might feel less bound by previous restraints, potentially bolstering calls within India to address Kashmir through more assertive or even military means.

The current crisis reflects a complex interplay between territorial sovereignty, water security, and border management—issues that have long been flashpoints in India-Pakistan relations. The Indian government's decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty directly targets Pakistan's water security, as the country heavily depends on rivers originating in India for its agricultural and domestic needs. Pakistan has explicitly warned that any Indian move to divert water from the Indus system would be treated as an "act of war," highlighting how water resources have become increasingly securitised in bilateral relations.

The closure of the Wagah-Attari border by both countries represents another dimension of this crisis. This border crossing has served as one of the few channels for limited trade and people-to-people exchanges between India and Pakistan. Its shutdown not only disrupts economic ties but also carries significant symbolic weight, as this is the site of the famous daily flag-lowering ceremony that attracts visitors from both countries. The immediate closure of this crossing, with only a brief grace period for returning travellers, signals a complete suspension of normal cross-border interactions.

Pakistan's decision to close its airspace to Indian aircraft adds another layer of complexity to the crisis. This measure echoes actions taken during previous periods of heightened tensions, such as following the 2019 Balakot airstrikes, when Pakistan closed its airspace to Indian flights for several months. Such closures significantly impact air travel between the two countries and force airlines to take longer, more costly routes for international flights, imposing economic costs on India's aviation sector.

The tit-for-tat expulsion of diplomatic personnel—with India declaring Pakistani military attachés persona non grata and Pakistan ordering Indian military, naval, and air advisers to leave the country—further diminishes channels for official communication at a time when dialogue is most needed. The reduction of the Indian High Commission staff in Pakistan from 55 to 30 by April 30 represents a significant downgrading of diplomatic ties, limiting the capacity for engagement during this critical period.

The current crisis presents a significant challenge to the already fragile relationship between India and Pakistan. The suspension of both the Indus Waters Treaty and the Simla Agreement—two foundational agreements that have survived numerous conflicts—signals a potential paradigm shift in bilateral relations. These developments raise serious questions about how disputes, particularly regarding Kashmir and the Line of Control, will be managed in the absence of these diplomatic frameworks.

The statements from both governments indicate a hardening of positions. Pakistan has explicitly linked the suspension of bilateral agreements to accusations that India is "fomenting terrorism inside Pakistan" and engaging in "trans-national killings," while also criticising India's approach to Kashmir. Meanwhile, India has framed its actions as necessary responses to cross-border terrorism, particularly following the Pahalgam attack. This mutual attribution of blame creates a difficult environment for de-escalation.

The international community's response to this crisis will be crucial. The World Bank, as a signatory to the Indus Waters Treaty, may attempt to mediate that aspect of the dispute. However, with Pakistan moving away from bi-lateralism by suspending the Simla Agreement, and India historically resistant to third-party intervention, the prospects for effective international mediation remain uncertain. The coming weeks will likely see intensive diplomatic activity as other nations attempt to prevent further escalation between the nuclear-armed neighbours.

Pakistan's suspension of the 1972 Simla Agreement represents a significant break from the diplomatic framework that has governed India-Pakistan relations for over five decades. Coming in response to India's suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty following the Pahalgam terror attack, this move signals a dangerous escalation in bilateral tensions. The suspension calls into question the validity of the Line of Control and potentially releases both countries from commitments not to alter it unilaterally—a development with serious implications for regional stability.

The current crisis highlights the interconnected nature of security concerns in South Asia, where territorial disputes, water security, and terrorism create a complex web of challenges. With both countries now taking unprecedented steps to suspend long-standing agreements, there is a real risk of further destabilisation in an already volatile region. The path forward will require careful diplomacy and a willingness on both sides to step back from escalatory measures. However, at present, the trajectory appears to be moving away from dialogue and toward greater confrontation, raising concerns about the future of India-Pakistan relations and stability in South Asia.

IDN (With Inputs From Agencies)