India faces a critical strategic dilemma in its military competition with China. The widening disparity in defence budgets, technological advancements, and military capabilities poses significant challenges for India’s long-term security and geopolitical ambitions.

China’s defence budget for 2025 is approximately $249 billion, significantly higher than India’s $81.72 billion. This gap reflects China’s ability to invest more in advanced technologies and military modernisation.

Over 50% of India’s defence budget is allocated to personnel costs, leaving limited resources for modernisation, compared to China’s higher allocation for equipment and research.

China has developed advanced military platforms like the J-20 stealth fighter and Type-076 amphibious assault ship, showcasing its prowess in indigenous high-tech weaponry.

India remains heavily reliant on imports for critical defence technologies, with delays in domestic projects like the TEJAS fighter jet highlighting inefficiencies.

China’s collaboration with Pakistan further complicates India’s strategic environment. Pakistan’s acquisition of Chinese J-31 stealth fighters could erode India’s historical air superiority.

The combined deployment of advanced Chinese and Pakistani aircraft, such as the J-10s and J-20s, presents a coordinated challenge to India’s aerial dominance.

India faces a complex and evolving security challenge as it navigates the dual threats posed by China and Pakistan, particularly in the realm of air power. While India has traditionally maintained air superiority in the region, recent developments underscore the need for accelerated modernisation and strategic recalibration.

China’s advancements in military technology, such as the J-36 stealth fighter, and its growing defence collaboration with Pakistan have heightened regional tensions. Pakistan’s acquisition of Chinese J-10C fighters and their deployment alongside China’s J-20s near Indian borders exemplify a coordinated strategy to challenge India’s aerial dominance. These developments have forced India to reassess its defence posture, particularly as its indigenous Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) program lags behind schedule.

Despite these challenges, India retains significant strengths. The Indian Air Force (IAF) ranks among the world’s top four air forces and boasts advanced platforms like Rafale jets, Su-30MKIs, Mirage-2000s, and indigenous TEJAS fighters. India’s deployment of S-400 missile systems further enhances its multi-layered air defence capabilities. However, delays in domestic programs like TEJAS Mark-II and AMCA underscore the limitations of India’s indigenous defence manufacturing.

Strategically, India must decide between continued reliance on defence imports or prioritising self-reliance through domestic production. While partnerships with Western countries have yielded dividends, India remains cautious about formal alliances to preserve its strategic autonomy. At the same time, it faces the imperative of balancing internal military capacity-building with external partnerships to counterbalance China’s growing influence.

India also confronts the broader geopolitical challenge of a potential two-front war with China and Pakistan. Historically, it has relied on limited resources to prepare for short-term conflicts while holding defences against simultaneous threats. However, this approach may no longer suffice given China’s aggressive posturing and Pakistan’s alignment with Beijing. To address this, India may need to pursue durable peace with one adversary or deepen collaborations with global powers like the United States through frameworks such as the Quad.

In conclusion, while India has made strides in modernising its military capabilities, it must accelerate its defence reforms and adopt a pragmatic strategy that balances indigenous development with selective external support. This will not only ensure deterrence but also position India as a resilient power capable of navigating an increasingly volatile regional security environment.

China’s infrastructure along the Sino-Indian border provides strategic advantages, while unresolved territorial disputes exacerbate tensions. China’s growing naval presence in the Indian Ocean adds another layer of complexity to India’s security calculus.

India must decide whether to continue chasing parity with China or adopt a more pragmatic approach tailored to its strengths and limitations:

Instead of attempting to match China across all domains, India could prioritise specific areas like missile systems, cyber warfare, and space-based capabilities where it can achieve relative parity or superiority.

Path Forward To Address These Challenges

India's reassessment of its defence strategy vis-à-vis China reflects a shift toward realism, acknowledging the significant technological, economic, and industrial gaps between the two nations. Historically, India perceived its relationship with China as a dyadic rivalry, but evolving geopolitical realities demand a more pragmatic approach. This includes balancing indigenous defence development with strategic imports and maintaining constructive relations with China.

India's push for self-reliance under the Atmanirbhar Bharat vision has led to an ideological commitment to indigenisation, but this has often come at the expense of immediate solutions. For instance:

The Indian Air Force faces operational shortages, with only 31 out of 42 sanctioned fighter squadrons functional. Indigenous projects like the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft are delayed, with its first flight postponed to 2028.

India lacks the robust infrastructure and dual-use industrial base that China has successfully developed over decades, enabling Beijing to produce next-generation fighter jets and advanced military equipment.

India's Defence Policy Is Caught In Cognitive Dissonance:

On one hand, there is fierce commitment to self-reliance and reducing dependence on foreign imports. On the other hand, India's domestic defence manufacturing ecosystem struggles to meet its growing security needs.

China's economy is approximately five times larger than India's, underscoring the material asymmetry in their rivalry. While India has recently outpaced China in terms of GDP growth rates, the absolute economic gap continues to widen. Moreover, China's strategic priorities lie elsewhere (e.g., the western Pacific), while India views China as its principal rival.

India needs to have a balanced approach, India must view defence imports as supplements rather than compromises to sovereignty. Strengthening industrial capabilities is essential for long-term competitiveness.

Overcoming domestic inertia and shifting public sentiment away from competitive rhetoric toward pragmatic realism will be critical.

India’s ability to recalibrate its defence strategy will depend not only on technological advancements but also on navigating complex political narratives tied to national pride and strategic identity.

Deepening partnerships with countries like the United States, Japan, and Australia through frameworks like the Quad could help counterbalance China’s influence. Regional collaborations with smaller South Asian nations could enhance India’s strategic depth.

Accelerating reforms in defence production through private sector involvement and reducing dependence on state-run enterprises like Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) is crucial for timely delivery of indigenous systems.

Leveraging asymmetric tactics such as economic measures, cyber capabilities, and leveraging soft power could offset China’s conventional military advantages.

Moving beyond symbolic posturing and fostering a realistic understanding of India’s strategic priorities among policymakers and the public will be essential for sustainable defence planning.

India cannot afford to chase China blindly in a resource-intensive arms race that it is unlikely to win given current economic and structural constraints. Instead, it should focus on a pragmatic strategy that leverages its comparative advantages, strengthens alliances, and addresses inefficiencies in its defence establishment. This approach would allow India to secure its interests without overstretching its resources or compromising long-term stability.

IDN