The HQ-9 is a copy of the Russian S-300 system a "hybrid design" based on the Russian SA-20 but with radar, seeker head and C2 elements heavily influenced by American and Israeli technology

Operation Sindoor, India's decisive military operation against terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan, has unexpectedly created significant repercussions beyond South Asia's borders. While the conflict primarily involved India and Pakistan, China has emerged as an indirect casualty due to the poor performance of its exported weapons systems in actual combat conditions. The operational failure of Chinese-made missiles, air defence systems, and fighter jets has severely damaged China's reputation as a reliable arms supplier in the global defence market, potentially impacting its long-term ambitions to become a major weapons exporter.

In a significant display of air superiority, the Indian Air Force shot down at least five Pakistan Air Force aircraft during the operation, including one Mirage-5, two Chinese made JF-17 Thunder jets, one US made F-16, and a fifth unidentified aircraft during Operation Sindoor. Military analysts have suggested that the fifth aircraft might have been one of Pakistan's nine Saab-2000 Erieye airborne early warning and control aircraft, representing a high-value target for the Indian forces. After three days of hostilities, both countries agreed to a ceasefire on May 10, though reports indicate Pakistan violated this agreement within hours by conducting fresh drone strikes in Srinagar and other border regions.

The Battlefield Reality Check

The tactical outcomes of Operation Sindoor have provided a rare real-world test of Chinese weapon systems in modern combat conditions. The results have proven deeply troubling for China's defence industry reputation, as multiple high-profile systems demonstrated significant operational shortcomings when faced with sophisticated electronic warfare and counter-measures employed by the Indian armed forces. These failures occurred despite Pakistan's heavy investment in Chinese military technology, which accounts for 81% of its total arms imports during 2020-24.

Chinese Weapons Systems Failures: The PL-15 Missile Debacle

Among the most damaging revelations emerging from the conflict is the spectacular failure of China's PL-15 beyond-visual-range air-to-air missiles. Considered one of China's most advanced aerial weapons and marketed as a potential competitor to the American AIM-120D, the PL-15's combat performance fell far short of expectations. During aerial engagements, PL-15 missiles fired from Pakistan's J-10C fighter jets either missed their targets completely or experienced in-flight malfunctions, with several missiles reportedly falling within Indian-controlled territory rather than reaching their intended targets.

This operational failure directly contradicts China's marketing claims about the PL-15's precision, long-range capabilities, and advanced guidance systems. For a weapon system promoted as a next-generation air dominance missile, its inability to perform under combat conditions against India's Rafale and Su-30MKI fighters-both equipped with modern electronic warfare capabilities-raises fundamental questions about its technological reliability and combat effectiveness. The failure has particularly significant implications for China's narrative of military modernisation and technological advancement in missile guidance systems.

HQ-9 Air Defence System Collapse

Perhaps even more damaging to China's military export reputation has been the comprehensive failure of the HQ-9 surface-to-air missile system during Operation Sindoor. The Chinese-made HQ-9, modelled after the Russian S-300 platform, was deployed as Pakistan's premier air defence system intended to provide a layered and integrated air defence umbrella. However, according to reports from Islamabad, the system failed to intercept even a single Indian missile or aircraft during Operation Sindoor.

Multiple HQ-9 air defence launchers deployed across Pakistani cities reportedly sustained heavy damage during India's precision strikes. The failure of this flagship export product of China's defence industry to provide effective protection against incoming projectiles has raised serious concerns within Pakistan's defence establishment. Defence analysts note that this performance collapse may significantly damage the credibility of the HQ-9 system in the global defence market. This is particularly concerning for China as the HQ-9 represents a hybrid design influenced by Russian, American, and Israeli technologies that China has invested heavily in developing and marketing internationally.

Pakistan's Growing Reliance On Chinese Military Hardware

Pakistan's military relationship with China has deepened substantially over the past decade, creating a situation of strategic dependence. During 2020-24, China was the largest arms supplier to Pakistan, accounting for 81% of its total weapons imports-a significant increase from 51% in 2009-14 and 73% in 2015-19. This growing reliance has coincided with a decline in Pakistan's acquisition of American weapons, reflecting its closer strategic alignment with Beijing. The Netherlands and Turkey have emerged as Pakistan's second and third largest arms suppliers, accounting for 5.5% and 3.8% of its imports respectively.

This arms relationship is mutually significant, as Pakistan represents China's single largest arms export market. During 2020-24, Pakistan accounted for 63% of China's total arms exports, up from 41% in 2009-14. This concentration of exports in a single market makes China particularly vulnerable to reputational damage when its weapons underperform in Pakistani service. The relationship highlights China's challenge in diversifying its defence export customer base beyond its closest strategic partners.

Implications For Pakistan's Military Modernisation

Pakistan's current position as the world's fifth-largest arms importer, accounting for 4.6% of global arms imports in 2020-24 (up from 2.8% in 2015-19), reflects its prioritisation of military spending despite economic challenges. Pakistan reportedly outspends all other comparable countries on defence as a proportion of GDP, allocating approximately 2.8% compared to the 1.8% average for low-middle-income countries. This significant investment in Chinese hardware has left Pakistan vulnerable to the quality issues now exposed by combat operations.

The operational failures of Chinese systems during Operation Sindoor present Pakistan with difficult strategic choices regarding future procurement. Having committed so heavily to Chinese platforms and systems, any major shift would require significant financial investment and operational adjustments, including retraining personnel and establishing new logistics chains. This creates a strategic dilemma for Pakistani military planners balancing budget constraints against the need for reliable defence capabilities.

Economic And Market Repercussions: Chinese Defence Stocks Decline

The market response to Operation Sindoor and its aftermath provides a clear indicator of investor sentiment regarding the implications for Chinese defence manufacturers. Following the announcement of the India-Pakistan ceasefire on May 10, 2025, Chinese defence stocks experienced significant declines. The Hang Seng China A Aerospace & Defence Index fell by 3% on May 13 alone, while individual companies like AVIC Chengdu and Zhuzhou Hongda saw even steeper drops of 8.6% and 6.3% respectively.

This decline represents a dramatic reversal from the initial market reaction to Operation Sindoor, when Chinese defence stocks had surged by up to 36% on expectations of increased arms sales to Pakistan. The market correction suggests investors have reassessed the long-term business prospects of Chinese defence manufacturers in light of the poor battlefield performance of their products. For publicly traded companies in China's defence sector, this market response creates additional pressure to address quality and reliability issues in order to restore investor confidence.

Long-Term Impact On Export Ambitions

The operational failures during Operation Sindoor come at a particularly challenging time for China's defence export ambitions. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), China accounted for 5.9% of global arms exports in 2020-24, a slight decline from the previous five-year period. This modest global market share reflects ongoing challenges for Chinese defence manufacturers in penetrating markets beyond their traditional clients.

A significant factor limiting China's export potential has been persistent concerns about product quality and reliability. These concerns now appear validated by battlefield evidence from Operation Sindoor. As early as 2023, analysts noted that China's arms exports had declined by nearly a quarter over the preceding decade due to "poor quality, and weak and inconsistent performance". SIPRI data showed China's arms shipments fell 7.8% between 2016 and 2020 compared to the preceding five-year period, with its global market share shrinking from 5.6% to 5.2%. The latest combat failures will likely accelerate this downward trend.

Credibility Gap In Global Defence Markets

The poor performance of Chinese weapons systems during Operation Sindoor creates a significant credibility challenge for China's aspirations to become a major player in the global arms market. While China has succeeded in attracting customers with competitive pricing and favourable financing terms, the hidden costs of equipment malfunctions are now clearly visible to potential buyers. This creates an opportunity for competing suppliers from Russia, Europe, and the United States to emphasise reliability and combat-proven performance in their marketing efforts.

For China to overcome this credibility gap, it will need to demonstrate significant improvements in quality control, reliability testing, and operational effectiveness. This may require greater transparency about system capabilities and limitations-something that has not traditionally been China's approach in defence marketing. The alternative is to accept a limited market position focusing on price-sensitive customers with lower operational requirements, which would represent a significant scaling back of China's ambitions in the defence export sector.

Technical Assessment And Lessons Learned

The specific failures observed during Operation Sindoor provide valuable intelligence for multiple stakeholders. For potential buyers of Chinese systems, the performance issues with the PL-15 missiles and HQ-9 air defence systems offer concrete examples of capabilities falling short of advertised specifications. For competing weapons manufacturers, these failures reveal potential vulnerabilities that can be exploited in marketing competing systems. For Chinese engineers and designers, the combat data represents an opportunity to identify and address specific technical shortcomings.

Of particular concern for China is the evident gap between its domestic military technology advancements and the quality of systems provided for export. Over the past 30 years, China has made substantial progress in developing indigenous military technology capabilities, moving from being a major arms importer to increasingly self-sufficient in weapons production. However, the question remains whether export versions of Chinese systems incorporate the same quality standards and technologies as those produced for the People's Liberation Army, or if export customers receive downgraded versions with inferior components.

Conclusion: Reshape Or Retreat?

The operational failures of Chinese weapon systems during Operation Sindoor represent a significant inflection point for China's defence export strategy. The combination of embarrassing technical failures, market scepticism reflected in stock prices, and damaged credibility among potential customers creates multiple challenges that will require substantive responses rather than public relations management alone.

China now faces strategic choices about its approach to the global defence market. It could fundamentally reshape its quality control processes and testing regimes to address the reliability issues revealed during Operation Sindoor, accepting short-term costs to rebuild its reputation for the long term. Alternatively, it might retreat to focusing on less demanding customers while attempting to protect its relationship with Pakistan through concessions or replacements for failed systems.

What is clear is that the poor performance of Chinese weapons in a high-intensity conflict between India and Pakistan has created repercussions that extend far beyond South Asia. For a nation with ambitions to challenge established powers in the global defence market, the technical failures exposed during Operation Sindoor represent not just an embarrassment, but a strategic setback that will shape perceptions of Chinese military technology for years to come. As defence planners worldwide assess the lessons of this conflict, China's reputation as a reliable arms supplier has sustained damage that cannot be easily repaired.

IDN (Based On Agency Inputs)