The world is entering a perilous new phase of nuclear competition, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) Yearbook 2025, which reveals that China has rapidly expanded its nuclear arsenal to at least 600 warheads—an increase of 100 warheads in both 2023 and 2024. This acceleration marks China as the fastest-growing nuclear power, outpacing all other nuclear-armed states in the rate of expansion.

SIPRI’s annual assessment highlights that nearly all nine nuclear-armed states—the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel—continued intensive modernisation of their nuclear forces in 2024, upgrading existing weapons and introducing new delivery systems. The report warns that arms control regimes are severely weakened, and the era of global reductions in nuclear arsenals, which had persisted since the end of the Cold War, is drawing to a close.

Of the estimated 12,241 nuclear warheads worldwide as of January 2025, about 9,614 are in military stockpiles for potential use, with roughly 3,912 deployed on missiles or aircraft. Around 2,100 of these are on high operational alert, almost all belonging to Russia or the United States, though China is now believed to keep some warheads on missiles during peacetime. Russia and the United States still possess about 90 percent of the world’s nuclear weapons, with Russia holding 5,459 warheads and the US 5,177, while China’s arsenal, though smaller, is growing at an unprecedented rate.

SIPRI’s data shows that by January 2025, China had completed or was nearing completion of approximately 350 new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) silos in northern desert regions and eastern mountainous areas. If current trends continue, China could possess as many ICBMs as Russia or the US by the end of the decade, and may reach 1,000 warheads within seven to eight years. Even at a projected 1,500 warheads by 2035, China’s stockpile would still be only about one-third the size of the current Russian and US arsenals.

Other nuclear powers are also modernising. India and Pakistan are developing new delivery systems, with India’s arsenal rising to about 180 warheads and Pakistan’s remaining steady at around 170. North Korea is estimated to have 50 warheads, with enough fissile material to potentially double that number. The UK and France are maintaining or planning to expand their arsenals, while Israel’s stockpile remains at about 90 warheads.

SIPRI Director Dan Smith emphasises that the risks of a new nuclear arms race are heightened by the rapid development of technologies such as artificial intelligence, cyber capabilities, missile defence, and quantum computing, which are radically redefining nuclear deterrence and increasing the potential for instability and miscalculation. The weakening of arms control agreements, particularly as the New START treaty between the US and Russia nears expiration in 2026 with no successor in sight, further exacerbates these dangers.

The report concludes that the world is witnessing the end of the post-Cold War trend of declining nuclear arsenals, replaced by a new era of modernisation, expansion, and heightened nuclear risks, with China’s rapid build-up serving as a central driver of this emerging arms race.

Based On ANI Report