The Indian Army’s recent drone attack on the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) headquarters in Myanmar has delivered a significant blow to the alleged efforts by China and Pakistan to reignite insurgency in Northeast India.

Following the fall of the Sheikh Hasina government in Dhaka, intelligence sources indicate that the Pakistan Army and ISI, with tacit support from China, have been actively plotting to revive insurgent activities in the region by reactivating groups operating from Bangladesh and Myanmar.

The drone strike targeted ULFA’s eastern base, which has historically served as a shelter and training ground for cross-border operations into India. This action comes at a time when China is accused of facilitating the movement of ULFA’s exiled leader, Paresh Baruah, from Ruili near the Arunachal Pradesh-Myanmar border to the Xishuangbanna Dai region in Yunnan, China.

This region, home to the Tai/Dai people with ethnic ties to Assam’s Ahoms, is seen as a strategic location for Baruah, potentially allowing access to Mong La in Myanmar—a territory tightly controlled by China through its proxy, the NDAA group.

Reports suggest that China’s involvement extends beyond providing safe passage. Baruah has expressed support for Beijing’s proposed 60,000 MW hydroelectric dam project on the Yarlung Tsangpo River (which becomes the Brahmaputra in Assam), indicating possible alignment of interests. The broader strategy appears to involve leveraging ethnic and insurgent networks across the border to destabilize India’s Northeast, especially amid shifting political dynamics in Bangladesh.

Despite these efforts, the Indian Army’s precision drone strike has disrupted these plans, sending a clear message regarding India’s resolve and capability to counter cross-border insurgency. While ULFA’s Paresh Baruah-led faction remains opposed to peace talks—unlike the pro-talk group that recently signed a tripartite peace accord—the attack underscores India’s commitment to neutralizing external support for insurgent groups.

The situation remains fluid, with north-eastern rebels reportedly maintaining hideouts in Myanmar’s Sagaing region. However, the drone operation marks a strategic setback for China and Pakistan’s ambitions to use insurgency as a lever against India in the Northeast, highlighting the growing complexity of regional security dynamics.

Agencies