India’s position in the global rocket and commercial launch race is under growing scrutiny as China accelerates the development and deployment of reusable rocket technologies, particularly with successful sea and land-based recoveries.

Chinese companies have already moved beyond theoretical demonstrations, raising funds and making strategic promises around ultra-fast logistics using these reusable systems.

In contrast, the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) is still several years away from operationalising its own Next-Generation Launch Vehicle (NGLV) with Vertical Take-Off Vertical Landing (VTVL) capabilities.

While ISRO has made progress—such as successful landing trials of its Pushpak spaceplane—the winged design of Pushpak does not align with the VTVL systems that are now dominating the global market.

The NGLV, which aims to introduce VTVL capabilities and partial reusability (with the first stage designed for 15–20 reuses), is still in the design and testing phase. Official approval for the NGLV came in late 2024, with an anticipated development timeline of about eight years, projecting operational status only by 2032–2035. This timeline places India significantly behind both China and the United States, where operational reusable rockets are already a reality.

The commercial consequences of this technological lag are significant. Indian space-tech start-ups such as Pixxel, Digantara, and XDLINX have increasingly opted to launch their satellites with SpaceX’s Falcon 9, attracted by its cost-efficient, frequent rideshare launches—a service the Indian launch ecosystem currently cannot match.

This shift is not just a matter of national pride but impacts the entire Indian space industry’s ability to capture and retain commercial satellite business, which is crucial for long-term growth and innovation.

ISRO’s NGLV project is ambitious, featuring advanced navigation, steerable grid fins, deployable landing legs, and semi-cryogenic propulsion. However, these technologies are still being validated on smaller test vehicles, and full-scale implementation remains years away.

Meanwhile, China’s rapid demonstration and commercialization of reusable rockets—especially with sea landings—give it a clear edge in both technology and market readiness.

Jayant Mundhra, a prominent commentator on the sector, underscores that speed is now the defining metric in the space launch race. While India is not lacking in technical capability or ambition, the global competitive landscape is being reshaped by those who can execute and commercialize faster. As a result, China and the US are not only advancing technologically but are also attracting the very start-ups and commercial customers that might once have relied on Indian launch vehicles.

Unless ISRO can accelerate its development and deployment of reusable launch technology, and unless India’s commercial launch sector can offer more competitive pricing and frequency, the country risks falling further behind in the global space race—both technologically and commercially. The challenge is not just to innovate, but to do so quickly enough to retain relevance in a rapidly evolving market.

Based On Business Today Report