NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has heightened tensions in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict by announcing that the alliance will impose “100% secondary sanctions” on any country continuing to trade oil and gas with Russia.

With this unprecedented threat coming just days after U.S. President Donald Trump’s sharp escalation in rhetoric and policy against Moscow, the spotlight is now firmly on major economies like India, China, and Brazil—each of which has remained significant consumers of Russian energy since the onset of sanctions tied to the invasion of Ukraine.

In a press conference held in Washington, DC, alongside leading U.S. senators, Rutte directly addressed the leaders of China, India, and Brazil, warning that unless they actively push President Putin toward serious peace negotiations, their continued purchase of Russian hydrocarbons will have “massive” negative repercussions: “If you are the President of China, or the Prime Minister of India, or the President of Brazil… I will impose 100% secondary sanctions”.

Rutte’s warning followed President Donald Trump’s newly unveiled policy shift. Trump gave Russia a 50-day deadline to negotiate a ceasefire or face “biting” 100% tariffs and secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian exports.

Trump announced additional military support for Ukraine, including the delivery of advanced weaponry, while clarifying that Ukraine should not target Moscow directly. These moves, drastic in both their scope and intent, are designed to force a breakthrough toward peace, leveraging economic and diplomatic tools in tandem.

Specific Challenges For India

India is especially vulnerable to these sanctions, both diplomatically and economically:

Energy Dependence: India now imports between 35% and 40% of its crude oil from Russia, having rapidly increased purchases since early 2022. In June 2025, India imported over 2 million barrels per day from Russia—making it the world’s largest buyer of Russian crude.

Economic Reality: Russian oil is largely purchased above the $60 per barrel western price cap, but its cost-effectiveness, deep discounts, and logistical improvements (such as the new Eastern Maritime Corridor) have made it vital to Indian energy security.

Strategic Calculus: India’s foreign policy has been driven by strategic autonomy and pragmatism. While Prime Minister Narendra Modi has voiced sorrow about civilian casualties and stressed “dialogue and diplomacy,” India has notably abstained from UN resolutions condemning Russia and refused to join western sanctions.

Diplomatic Balance: India’s approach reflects not just economic interests, but also deep defence ties with Russia and concerns over ceding strategic space to China.

Diplomatic And Economic Repercussions

The threat of comprehensive secondary sanctions represents a new phase in western efforts to isolate Russia. For India, China, and Brazil, such sanctions would potentially jeopardize not only critical energy supplies but also broader economic relations with western markets and financial systems:

Secondary Sanctions: These could target banks, shipping companies, insurers, and any third parties facilitating Russian oil and gas trade, disrupting global commerce and financial flows for nations that resist western policy alignment.

Global Impact: The move would require major economies—whose energy needs cannot easily be met from alternative sources—to make urgent decisions about risk, exposure, and possible diplomatic pushback or trade retaliation.

Indian Leadership Response & Strategic Dilemmas

Despite these threats, India has so far stayed the course—highlighting peace but not condemning Moscow nor immediately reducing Russian oil imports. This balancing act signals both the depth of India’s ties with Russia and its desire to avoid aligning too closely with any single global bloc.

However, looming 100% sanctions, if enacted, may force India to review its options. New Delhi faces stark choices: whether to defy western warnings for the sake of energy and strategic autonomy, or to recalibrate its approach to minimise economic fallout and diplomatic isolation.

Conclusion

The NATO Secretary General’s explicit call and the U.S. President’s 50-day ultimatum mark a sharp elevation of economic warfare accompanying the military and diplomatic dimensions of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. India, China, and Brazil, as major emerging economies reliant on Russian energy and commodities, are now under intense pressure to influence Moscow’s decisions—or risk facing severe economic consequences that could reverberate across their economies and global markets.

The coming weeks will test their diplomatic agility, as the world watches whether intensified sanctions threats will force a change in the trajectory of their Russian ties—or a pivot in the broader course of the war itself.

Agencies