New Satellite Evidence Undercuts Official Denials: Operation Sindoor’s ‘Warning’ Strike On Pakistan’s Kirana Hills

India’s lightning-quick Operation Sindoor, executed on the night of 9 May
2025, was proclaimed a limited counter-terror operation. Two months later,
newly released Google Earth imagery analysed by open-source sleuth Damien
Symon places an unmistakable missile scar on Pakistan’s nuclear-linked
Kirana Hills and exposes freshly patched runways at nearby Mushaf (Sargodha)
airbase. The pixels contradict official Indian and Pakistani denials,
spotlighting a clandestine episode that has already reshaped regional
deterrence calculus.

Background: From Pahalgam To Precision Retaliation
The immediate catalyst for Operation Sindoor was the 22 April 2025 massacre of
twenty-six tourists in Pahalgam, claimed by The Resistance Front (TRF), a
Lashkar-e-Taiba proxy. Domestic outrage galvanised New Delhi to authorise a
tri-service response framed as “equal intensity in the same domain,”
emphasising terror infrastructure rather than Pakistani state assets.
Yet the geography of the strikes quickly told a different story. Within 23
minutes, at least fifteen BrahMos cruise missiles and multiple SCALP/HAMMER
precision munitions detonated across Punjab and Sindh, damaging eleven of
thirteen major Pakistani airbases, including Nur Khan, Rahim Yar Khan, Sukkur,
and Mushaf.
Anatomy of Operation Sindoor
India’s integrated air campaign unfolded in three tightly sequenced
waves:
1. Suppression of Pakistani air-defence radars with loitering munitions and SEAD Rafales.Cruise-missile salvos against runways, hardened shelters, command-and-control nodes, and fuel farms.2. Contingency air-patrols by Su-30MKI and S-400 batteries to blunt any counter-strike—capabilities vindicated when Pakistan’s retaliatory drones were intercepted over Jammu and Rajasthan.3. Official briefings in New Delhi emphasised that strikes were confined to militant camps; however, the target set quietly expanded once Pakistan launched what Indian planners deemed escalatory missile raids on 8 May.
Kirana Hills: Pakistan’s Shadowy Nuclear Nerve Centre
Kirana’s black-granite ridge lies 8 kilometres south-east of Mushaf airbase in
Sargodha district. Since the late 1970s, Islamabad has carved more than
forty-six tunnels into its flanks to store warheads, house
transporter-erector-launchers, and conduct sub-critical “cold tests”
(codenamed Kirana-I) between 1983 and 1990. The Bulletin of the Atomic
Scientists flagged the site in 2023 as Pakistan’s most probable underground
stockpile, complete with redundant blast doors and environmental controls to
preserve fissile cores.
Why Mountainous Bunkers?
Mountains like Kirana offer natural overburden, stable humidity, and
insulation from satellite-borne synthetic-aperture radars. They complicate
earth-penetrator trajectories and enable rapid dispersal of nuclear assets
through multiple adits. For India, even a symbolic strike near such a facility
telegraphs political resolve without triggering radioactive fallout.
Satellite Imagery Findings: What the Pixels Reveal
Impact Scar
Symon’s comparative analysis of Google Earth tiles dated 30 April 2025
(pre-strike) and 18 June 2025 (post-strike) reveals a roughly 6-metre-wide
blast crater on Kirana’s southwestern face, accompanied by radial scorch
marks. The absence of breaching around known tunnel mouths indicates a
surface-level detonation consistent with a low-yield, unitary conventional
warhead—likely a BrahMos derived from the Block-I series with fragmentation
rather than penetrator settings.
Repaired Runways
At Mushaf, two intersecting runways show rectangular patches of lighter
asphalt, each about 70 × 15 metres, aligning with night-time strike
coordinates publicised by Indian journalists on 13 May. Patchwork repairs,
completed within nine hours according to Pakistani NOTAM filings, still cause
detectable vibration during F-16 taxi runs.
Multi-Source Corroboration
Maxar and PlanetScope imagery, analysed independently by NDTV and India Today,
confirm twin craters of 8–9 metres on runways 06/24 and 14/32. A Moneycontrol
investigation calculates Rahim Yar Khan’s primary runway crater at 19 feet
radius, leaving the airfield “in ICU” for over forty days.
| Evidence Tier | Data Source | Key Observation | Date Stamp |
|---|---|---|---|
| Optical | Google Earth | 6-metre impact scar on Kirana’s SW slope | 18 Jun 2025 |
| Synthetic-Aperture Radar | Capella Space via India Today | Runway subsidence at Mushaf sectors A-3 and C-1 | 11 May 2025 |
| Thermal | Sentinel-2 SWIR band processed by Intel Lab | Anomalous heat plume over Kirana at 02:14 IST | 10 May 2025 |
| Human Intelligence | Resident VHF logs | Emergency NOTAM: Mushaf closed 00:30-08:15 PKT | 10 May 2025 |
Contradictory Official Narratives And The Viral Smirk
At a 12 May press conference, Air Marshal A.K. Bharti thanked a journalist
“for telling us” about Kirana’s nuclear tunnels, insisting no strike
occurred—a statement delivered with a fleeting half-smile that ignited
speculation across social media. Islamabad’s Inter-Services Public Relations
(ISPR) similarly denied any hit but issued contradictory communiqués on runway
closures.
The dissonance illustrates a classic “strategic ambiguity” manoeuvre: both
capitals seek deterrent advantage without public escalation. Yet the digital
era’s ubiquitous satellites have eroded such plausible deniability.
Strategic Significance of A ‘Warning Strike’
Hitting the hillside rather than tunnel mouths served four overlapping
objectives:
Demonstrative Deterrence: Signals India’s surveillance reach and
precision capacity without provoking nuclear retaliation.
Escalation Control: By avoiding underground penetration, New Delhi kept
combat thresholds beneath Islamabad’s declared red-lines.
Psychological Warfare: Reminder to Pakistan’s strategic corps that
sanctuaries are observable and vulnerable, shaping crisis bargaining
behaviour.
Domestic Assurance: Visual proof for Indian audiences that terror
fatalities would be avenged decisively.
Sargodha/Mushaf Airbase: Collateral Or Co-Equal Target?
While Kirana captured headlines, Mushaf’s crippling mattered operationally.
The base hosts No.9 “Griffins” F-16 squadron, JF-17 Block-III jets, and
Pakistan’s main AEW&C detachment. Two runway cuts temporarily grounded
quick-reaction alerts, compelling the PAF to disperse fighters to outlying
strips like Mianwali.
Repair tenders valued at 100 million PKR for Bahawalpur and unspecified sums
for Mushaf and Rahim Yar Khan were floated on 6 June, indirectly validating
damage severity.
Repair Efforts And Lessons In Runway Resilience
Pakistan’s rapid-patch doctrine relies on aluminium AM-2 mats and
quick-setting concrete. Satellite change-detection timelines, however, expose
variances:
| Airbase | First Patch Complete | Full Operational Readiness | Repair Lag |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mushaf (Sargodha) | 9 h | 96 h | 87 h |
| Rahim Yar Khan | 14 d | 44 d (estimated) | 30 d |
| Sukkur | 48 h | 10 d | 8 d |
| Nur Khan | 72 h | 8 d | 5 d |
Longer lags correlate with crater diameter, asphalt quality, and logistical
depth, providing Indian planners future target-selection heuristics.
Open-Source Intelligence Versus State Secrecy
Operation Sindoor marks the first South-Asian conflict in which civilian
imagery drove the narrative more forcefully than official briefings. OSINT
actors such as Symon (@detresfa_), Goodhind, and Foxtrot crowdsourced
geolocation, BDA (battle-damage assessment), and repair-progress tracking
within hours.
Governments face a shrinking window for narrative control, underscoring the
need for proactive transparency or more sophisticated deception tactics.
Risk of Escalation And Back-Channel Diplomacy
Despite severe damage, Islamabad refrained from large-scale kinetic
retaliation, choosing DGMO-level talks by 15 May. Analysts attribute restraint
to:
Pakistan’s reduced sortie rate amid runway outages.Diplomatic pressure from Washington and Riyadh to forestall nuclear brinkmanship.India’s calibrated messaging that “next rounds would go deeper” if cross-border terror persisted.
Legal and Ethical Considerations Under International Law
India framed Sindoor within Article 51 self-defence, citing an “impending
threat” of further terror attacks. Striking near (but not within) a nuclear
storage complex skirts the Additional Protocol I prohibition on attacks
endangering civilian populations via nuclear risk, though critics argue the
potential for collateral radiation still raises proportionality concerns.
Nuclear Stability Implications
The strike sets a precedent that conventional precision weapons can be
brandished against nuclear-related sites as messaging tools. That norm blurs
the deterrence boundary and may incentivise Pakistan to harden, disperse, or
pre-delegate launch authority—steps that could increase crisis instability.
Conversely, Pakistan’s muted response suggests a recognition that limited
conventional strikes, carefully bounded, need not spiral—a dynamic akin to the
“stability–instability paradox” playing out in real time.
Conclusion: Silence Speaks Volumes
The Kirana Hills crater, though tactically minor, casts a strategic shadow. It
exposes the narrowing gap between battlefield action and public verification,
complicates nuclear risk calculus, and reaffirms that even the most fortified
secrets can now be mapped by crowdsourced constellations. As both governments
maintain polite fictions, the world’s satellites continue their silent
testimony—reminding South Asia that in the 21st-century battlespace, the truth
is literally written on the ground.
IDN (With Inputs From A ET News Report)
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