HDW Type-214 stealth submarine

India is poised to make a significant strategic shift in its submarine modernisation program, moving away from a planned ₹36,000 crore deal with France for three additional Scorpene submarines in favour of a more advanced ₹70,000 crore contract with Germany's ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems for six next-generation submarines under Project 75I.

This decision, while not yet finalised in writing, reflects India's commitment to acquiring cutting-edge underwater warfare capabilities to counter growing naval threats from China and Pakistan.​

The Indian Navy currently operates a critically thin submarine fleet comprising only 16 conventional submarines, including six newly commissioned French Scorpene-class boats and ageing Russian Kilo-class and German HDW submarines.

This contrasts starkly with China's formidable fleet of over 60 submarines, including advanced nuclear-powered vessels that regularly patrol the Indian Ocean. China's naval expansion has been particularly concerning for Indian defence planners, with Chinese submarines demonstrating extended three-month deployments in the Indian Ocean.​

Pakistan's submarine capabilities are also expanding through Chinese assistance, with eight new Yuan-class diesel-electric submarines with Air Independent Propulsion (AIP) technology expected to significantly boost Pakistan's naval deterrence. This regional submarine arms race has created an urgent imperative for India to modernise its underwater fleet with the most advanced technology available.​

The decision to potentially cancel the French Scorpene order stems from significant technological advantages offered by the German submarines. The ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems design represents what defence officials describe as "a generation ahead" of the French vessels. The German submarines will feature fully integrated Air Independent Propulsion systems, enabling underwater operations for up to three weeks without surfacing, compared to conventional submarines that must surface or snorkel every few days.​

The German Type 214-based design offers superior stealth capabilities with reduced acoustic signatures and enhanced noise absorption. Unlike the French MESMA AIP system used in Scorpenes, which requires combustion-based propulsion, the German fuel cell AIP technology provides virtually silent operation. This technological advantage is crucial for anti-submarine warfare and intelligence gathering missions in contested waters.​

The shift toward German submarines aligns with India's broader "Make in India" defence strategy, with the Project-75I contract promising approximately 60% indigenous content. This represents a significant increase from the indigenous content achieved in the original Scorpene program. The German partnership with Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Limited (MDL) is designed to transfer substantial submarine design and manufacturing technology to India.​

MDL's capacity to handle both projects simultaneously has raised concerns among defence officials, who note the complexity of managing two different submarine construction programs concurrently. The German submarines are expected to serve as a technological bridge to India's future Project 76 program, which will feature completely indigenous submarine designs.​

The potential cancellation of the French submarine order reflects India's evolving strategic calculus in the Indo-Pacific region. While France remains a key strategic partner with ongoing projects including Rafale aircraft procurement and joint jet engine development worth ₹61,000 crore, India's immediate naval requirements prioritise technological superiority over diplomatic considerations.​

China's submarine fleet modernisation has been rapid and extensive, with the deployment of Jin-class ballistic missile submarines and Shang-class attack submarines throughout the Indo-Pacific. These vessels carry advanced submarine-launched ballistic missiles with ranges exceeding 5,400 nautical miles, fundamentally altering the regional strategic balance.​

Contract negotiations for the German submarine project began in September 2024, with commercial discussions expected to conclude within six to nine months. The first submarine under Project 75I is targeted for delivery seven years after contract signing, with subsequent vessels delivered annually. This timeline means India's conventional submarine fleet will remain under significant strain until the mid-2030s.​

The extended delivery schedule highlights the urgency behind India's submarine modernisation crisis. Current projections suggest India will operate only nine conventional submarines by 2030, far below the Navy's stated requirement of 24 operational submarines. This capability gap occurs precisely when China's submarine presence in the Indian Ocean is intensifying.​

The German submarine program represents one of India's largest defence procurement initiatives, with the ₹70,000 crore cost nearly double the Project-75I's original ₹35,000 crore estimate from 2010. However, defence officials justify this expense based on the submarines' advanced capabilities and high indigenous content. The program is expected to generate thousands of skilled manufacturing jobs and strengthen India's submarine industrial base.​

The potential cancellation of the ₹36,000 crore French order, while diplomatically sensitive, would allow India to concentrate resources on acquiring more advanced technology. Combined with the German contract, India's total submarine procurement could exceed ₹1 lakh crore, representing the largest naval modernisation investment in the nation's history.​

The German partnership emphasises substantial technology transfer, with ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems committed to establishing India as a regional submarine manufacturing hub. This includes design know-how transfer that would enable MDL to develop future submarines independently. The arrangement contrasts with the French approach, which focused more on licensed production than comprehensive technology absorption.​

The German submarines will incorporate indigenous systems including combat management systems developed by Bharat Electronics Limited and sonar technology from the Defence Research and Development Organisation. This hybrid approach combines German structural design excellence with Indian electronic warfare and sensor capabilities.​

The submarine modernisation program represents a critical component of India's broader Indo-Pacific strategy, designed to maintain maritime superiority in the Indian Ocean while deterring Chinese naval expansion. Success in this program will determine India's ability to project power and protect vital sea lanes connecting the Middle East, Africa, and Southeast Asia.

This strategic naval transition signals India's commitment to acquiring the most advanced underwater warfare capabilities available, regardless of diplomatic sensitivities, as the nation positions itself for long-term strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific region.

Based On A ET News Report