India is reportedly accelerating negotiations with Armenia for the export of Sukhoi Su‑30MKI multirole fighter aircraft in what appears to be one of New Delhi’s most consequential defence export deals to date. 

Valued at an estimated 2.5 to 3 billion US dollars, the contract, once formalised, would represent Armenia’s largest‑ever military procurement and a defining moment in India’s emergence as a credible aerospace exporter.

Armenia’s turn towards India comes after years of military frustration and dwindling confidence in Moscow’s security assurances, particularly in the wake of Azerbaijan’s decisive battlefield successes in Nagorno‑Karabakh in 2020 and 2023.

Facing depleted inventories and waning Russian support, Yerevan began diversifying its defence partnerships, finding in India a pragmatic and reliable supplier.

Between 2022 and 2024, Armenia procured Indian Pinaka multi‑barrel rocket launchers, Swathi weapon‑locating radars, advanced 155‑mm artillery systems, and anti‑tank munitions from multiple Indian manufacturers, including Bharat Earth Movers Limited (BEML) and Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL). The potential Su‑30MKI acquisition thus marks a clear shift from tactical armaments to high‑end air combat capability.

According to defence sources, Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) is preparing a dedicated Su‑30MKI export line tailored to Armenian operational requirements. Deliveries could begin around 2027.

The export configuration is expected to feature an indigenous Uttam Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar, a fully digital cockpit, Astra beyond‑visual‑range (BVR) air‑to‑air missiles, and a next‑generation electronic warfare suite for enhanced survivability and counter‑stealth capability.

Such a configuration would give the Armenian Air Force a decisive technological edge against Azerbaijan’s recently acquired JF‑17C Block‑III fighters sourced from Pakistan, which serve as the latter’s first integrated BVR‑capable fleet. The Armenian fleet is also likely to include advanced targeting pods and precision‑guided munitions compatible with Indian and Russian weapon standards.

The India–Armenia alignment occurs against the backdrop of intensifying Pakistan–Azerbaijan defence cooperation. Islamabad’s sale of 40 JF‑17C Block‑III multi‑role fighters to Baku, announced earlier this year, marked a major milestone in Pakistan’s export portfolio and signalled a new axis of military cooperation extending beyond traditional allies.

Azerbaijan’s operational experience, including the effective use of Turkish drones and Israeli loitering munitions, has reinforced its confidence in rapid‑strike warfare, compelling Armenia to rebuild its air‑defence ecosystem and pursue parity in both deterrence and capability projection.

The Su‑30MKI remains India’s most capable and combat‑proven air‑superiority platform. Developed jointly by Russia’s Sukhoi Design Bureau and India’s HAL, the twin‑engine aircraft combines long endurance, heavy payload capacity, and 3D thrust‑vectoring manoeuvrability, allowing for both dogfight dominance and long‑range strike roles.

Since 2023, India has been conducting an extensive “Super Sukhoi” modernisation across more than 150 airframes under the Indian Air Force. The program integrates advanced Indian subsystems: upgraded mission computers, enhanced electronic warfare receivers, and compatibility with Astra MK‑2 and MK‑3 BVR missiles. These arms now position the aircraft among the world’s most evolved 4.5‑generation fighters, making HAL’s export offer increasingly competitive in global tenders.

If finalised, the Su‑30MKI purchase would mark Armenia’s first foray into high‑end air power since the fall of the Soviet Union. It would also alter the conventional balance in the Caucasus, introducing a new dimension to regional deterrence. With India supplying both radar systems and strike materiel, Armenia would no longer depend exclusively on Russian supply lines, thereby achieving partial defence autonomy.

Equally, India’s growing role as a defence partner in the Caucasus subtly checks Pakistan’s expanding influence in the region.

The geostrategic ramifications extend beyond bilateral trade: they signal India’s readiness to project its manufacturing and technological capabilities westward under the banner of ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ and the broader vision of a self‑reliant defence ecosystem.

Armenia would join the ranks of Egypt and Malaysia—both evaluating Su‑30 and related derivative platforms—as potential future clients in India’s aerospace export drive. The deal, if sealed, would reinforce HAL’s status as a full‑spectrum defence exporter, capable of delivering advanced fighters, radar systems, and indigenous missiles under a single framework.

For New Delhi, the transaction is more than a commercial success. It represents the confluence of strategic intent, industrial maturity, and geopolitical signalling—transforming India from a defence importer to an influential supplier shaping regional balance in one of Eurasia’s most volatile theatres.

IDN (With Agency Inputs)