US President Donald Trump’s latest comments have rekindled worldwide anxiety over the potential resumption of nuclear testing. In a high-profile interview on CBS News’ 60 Minutes, Trump claimed that Pakistan, along with Russia, China, and North Korea, had been conducting nuclear tests — a statement used to justify Washington’s plans to restart its own.

The remarks, delivered just ahead of a diplomatic meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, drew confusion in Washington and alarm abroad. Trump’s suggestion that “Pakistan’s been testing” immediately placed South Asia’s fragile nuclear equilibrium back in the spotlight.

South Asia’s Nuclear Perspective

According to the 2025 Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) Yearbook, India and Pakistan continued to refine their respective nuclear arsenals throughout 2024. SIPRI estimates indicate that India now holds about 180 nuclear warheads, up from 172 the previous year. Pakistan’s stockpile remains constant at around 170.

Country Estimated Nuclear Warheads (Jan 2025) Key Developments/Capabilities

CountryWarheadsKey Developments/Capabilities
USA5,459Modernising nuclear triad; subcritical testing continues; debate over full-scale testing.
Russia5,177Upgrading ICBMs and submarine fleet; maintains world’s largest nuclear arsenal.
China600Rapid expansion with MIRV-capable ICBMs; projected near-parity with US and Russia by 2030.
India180Strengthening triad with INS Arighaat; developing MIRV-equipped Agni-5 missiles.
Pakistan170Advancing missile delivery systems; pursuing sea-based nuclear cruise missile capability.

India’s Expanding Triad

India’s nuclear doctrine continues to rest on its “maturing triad” — the ability to deliver nuclear weapons from land, air, and sea. This triad provides flexibility and bolsters India’s second-strike capability.

During peacetime, India traditionally stores warheads separately from their launch systems to prevent accidental escalation. However, SIPRI notes emerging indications of higher readiness levels, such as cannisterised missile deployments and longer deterrence patrols, suggesting potential shifts towards partial mating of warheads with launchers.

The induction of INS Arighaat, India’s second indigenous SSBN, signified a breakthrough in sea-based deterrence. With subsequent vessels — Aridaman and S-4 — nearing operational status, India is consolidating its strategic capability to maintain continuous sea deterrence, joining the elite group of six nations operating nuclear-armed submarines.

Technological Superiority: MIRV And Command Doctrine

India’s most advanced missile, the Agni-5, now integrates Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicle (MIRV) technology, allowing a single missile to strike several targets simultaneously. This development significantly improves response flexibility and reduces vulnerability to interception.

India’s officially declared nuclear doctrine, formulated in 2003, centres on “no first use.” It authorises nuclear retaliation only in response to an enemy nuclear strike, envisaging “massive and unacceptable damage” in return. The Nuclear Command Authority, chaired by the Prime Minister, retains exclusive control over nuclear use decisions, underscoring strict civilian oversight.

SIPRI’s findings, however, suggest that India is gradually extending its deterrence beyond Pakistan, focusing increasingly on China’s expanding arsenal and its improving missile reach across Asia.

Pakistan’s Strategic Calculus

Pakistan’s nuclear posture continues to centre on credible deterrence against India’s larger conventional and nuclear forces. Although its warhead count remains around 170, advancements are evident in delivery mechanisms and fissile material production.

Islamabad is steadily developing a limited sea-based deterrent via sea-launched cruise missiles (SLCMs) to complement its land-based ballistic systems. The enhancement of Shaheen and Babur missile variants, including extended ranges and potential multiple-warhead configurations, suggests a long-term strategy to ensure survivability and parity within South Asia’s nuclear dyad.

China’s Expanding Arsenal

China’s nuclear modernisation continues at an unprecedented pace. With an estimated 600 warheads by early 2025, Beijing has become the world’s fastest-growing nuclear power. Its deployment of MIRV-equipped ICBMs and advanced hypersonic systems is reshaping deterrence models across Asia.

Analysts project that by 2030, China could rival the United States and Russia in the number of deployed ICBM launchers, even if total warheads remain fewer. This escalation is influencing strategic recalibrations in both New Delhi and Islamabad, as they seek to maintain regional stability while safeguarding deterrent credibility.

Rising Regional Tensions

SIPRI’s report coincided with heightened uncertainty in South Asia. In May 2025, India launched Operation Sindoor, striking terror camps and military facilities in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir following the Pahalgam attack. The operation triggered a four-day exchange involving fighter aircraft, drones, and long-range precision strikes — among the most intense conventional confrontations since Balakot.

The episode underscored the volatility of the subcontinent’s security dynamics, where routine hostilities risk spiralling into a nuclear crisis under the constant shadow of mutual deterrence.

Testing Debate

Worldwide, nuclear modernisation is accelerating rather than retreating. The United States and Russia collectively possess over 10,000 warheads, but instead of disarmament, renewed rhetoric around testing threatens to unravel decades of restraint.

Trump’s unverified claim that “others are testing” has revived fears of the erosion of the moratorium that has preserved nuclear stability since the Cold War’s close. Security experts warn that a US return to testing could legitimise similar moves by other nuclear states — potentially including India and Pakistan — thereby igniting a new era of arms competition.

Strategic Takeaway

Trump’s statement about Pakistan allegedly “testing nuclear weapons” may lack factual grounding, yet it underscores a deeper truth: the guardrails of nuclear restraint are weakening. The once-clear lines between deterrence and escalation are wearing thin.

For South Asia, these blurred thresholds present existential challenges. India’s triad is nearing operational maturity, Pakistan’s remains adaptive, and China’s arsenal is expanding rapidly. The interplay among these forces will define the subcontinent’s strategic stability — and perhaps the future trajectory of global nuclear order itself.

IDN (With Agency Inputs)