Beijing's Pakistan Arms Support During Operation Sindoor Undermines Mediator Credibility: South Asia Analyst Michael Kugelman

China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi has claimed that Beijing mediated tensions between India and Pakistan during their brief military confrontation in May 2025, listing it alongside other global conflicts such as those in Myanmar and the Middle East.
This assertion, made at the Symposium on the International Situation and China's Foreign Relations on 30 December 2025, portrays China as adopting an objective stance to address both symptoms and root causes of such disputes.
However, India has firmly rejected any third-party involvement, insisting that the ceasefire resulted from direct military-to-military communications between the Directors General of Military Operations (DGMOs) of both nations on 10 May.
The conflict erupted following a terrorist attack on 22 April 2025 in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, which killed 26 civilians, mostly Hindu tourists, and was initially claimed by The Resistance Front, a Lashkar-e-Taiba offshoot.
India accused Pakistan of supporting cross-border terrorism, a charge Islamabad denied, labelling the incident a false flag operation. In response, India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty and closed airspace to Pakistani airlines, heightening diplomatic tensions amid border skirmishes.
On 7 May, India launched Operation Sindoor, conducting precision missile and air strikes on nine sites in Pakistan-administered Kashmir and Punjab province, targeting infrastructure linked to Jaish-e-Mohammed, Lashkar-e-Taiba, and Hizbul Mujahideen.
Indian officials described the 25-minute operation as focused and non-escalatory, using Rafale jets armed with SCALP missiles and AASM Hammer bombs, while claiming to have jammed Chinese-supplied Pakistani air defences. Pakistan condemned the strikes as an act of war, reporting civilian casualties in mosques and residential areas, and retaliated with artillery shelling in Jammu, particularly Poonch, killing civilians and damaging religious sites.
The clashes escalated into the first drone war between the nuclear-armed neighbours, involving over 114 aircraft in beyond-visual-range engagements on 7 May. Pakistan claimed to have shot down five Indian jets, including three Rafales, using Chinese J-10 fighters and PL-15 missiles, while India acknowledged losses as part of combat but provided no specifics.
On 8-10 May, both sides exchanged drone and missile strikes; India targeted Pakistani air bases like Nur Khan and Rafiqui with BrahMos missiles, while Pakistan's Operation Bunyan-un-Marsoos hit Indian bases such as Udhampur and Adampur.
Casualties mounted on both sides, with India reporting 21 civilians and eight military personnel killed, mainly from Pakistani shelling, and Pakistan claiming 40 civilians and 13 military deaths from Indian strikes.
The four-day confrontation raised nuclear fears, as strikes near Pakistan's Strategic Plans Division headquarters at Nur Khan prompted US concerns, though both nations' leaders later confirmed no nuclear considerations.
Ceasefire talks culminated on 10 May at 17:00 IST after DGMO hotline communications, with both sides agreeing to halt all firing across land, air, and sea. While US President Donald Trump claimed credit via social media, and figures like JD Vance and Marco Rubio engaged officials, India emphasised bilateral resolution without external mediation. Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif acknowledged multiple countries' roles, including China, but New Delhi dismissed such narratives.
Wang Yi's recent claim echoes Trump's, positioning China as a global mediator despite its status as Pakistan's primary arms supplier, providing over 81 per cent of Islamabad's military equipment, including systems used in the conflict. South Asia analyst Michael Kugelman, speaking to ANI on 31 December 2025, urged scepticism, arguing Beijing lacks credibility for India given its support for Pakistan—like supplying a match then offering to extinguish the fire.
Kugelman highlighted China's pattern of touting mediation to showcase global clout, questioning the plausibility of its involvement in the India-Pakistan standoff. Indian military officials have accused China of treating the conflict as a live laboratory, extending support to Pakistan, a charge Beijing has not directly refuted. This comes amid strained India-China ties, though Wang noted positive momentum, citing Prime Minister Modi's SCO summit attendance in Tianjin.
India's rejection of third-party mediation aligns with its longstanding policy on Pakistan disputes, reiterated by Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri post-ceasefire. The ceasefire has held, with normalcy resuming, including reopened airspaces and commercial flights, but sporadic violations were reported initially. Analysts view China's claim as strategic messaging to embed its narrative in international discourse and equate India with Pakistan in regional affairs.
Geopolitically, the episode underscores South Asia's volatility, with drone warfare, cyber intrusions, and near-misses at key installations marking a new escalation threshold. Pakistan celebrated 16 May as Youm-e-Tashakur for its forces, while India focused on operational reviews, admitting limited base damage but refuting exaggerated Pakistani claims. As 2026 begins, Wang's remarks risk reigniting diplomatic friction, prompting New Delhi to reaffirm sovereignty over bilateral resolutions.
Based On ANI Report
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