India and Canada are poised for a significant diplomatic thaw, with energy cooperation emerging as the cornerstone of renewed ties. Recent developments at India Energy Week 2026 in Goa have catalysed this shift, where high-level meetings signalled a commitment to deepen bilateral engagement.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is slated to visit New Delhi in early March 2026, a trip expected to finalise a landmark 10-year uranium supply agreement valued at over $2 billion.

This pact addresses India’s growing nuclear energy needs, leveraging Canada’s vast uranium reserves from Saskatchewan mines. Such a deal would enhance India’s civil nuclear programme, supporting its ambitious target of 22,480 MW nuclear capacity by 2031.

Beyond uranium, discussions encompass long-term pacts for liquefied natural gas (LNG), liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), crude oil, and critical minerals like lithium and rare earths. Canada’s Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, Timothy Hodgson, met India’s Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri on the sidelines of IEW 2026 to revive the Canada–India Ministerial Energy Dialogue, dormant since diplomatic strains peaked in 2023.

India’s surging energy demand—projected to rise 3.6 per cent annually through 2050—underpins this outreach. With natural gas targeted to constitute 15 per cent of its energy mix by 2030, India seeks diversified imports to bolster energy security. Canada, the world’s fourth-largest LNG exporter by potential, views India as a key market amid global shifts away from Russian supplies.

Critical minerals form another pillar, with Canada offering secure supply chains for India’s electric vehicle and renewable energy ambitions. Investments in upstream projects and refining coordination are on the table, aligning with India’s Atmanirbhar Bharat push for self-reliance. Indian firms like Indian Oil Corporation have already signalled interest through high-level meetings in Canada.

Trade talks are accelerating too, with formal negotiations resuming for a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). India’s High Commissioner to Canada, Dinesh Patnaik, indicated that talks could conclude within a year, potentially doubling bilateral trade from $8 billion in 2025. This framework would encompass services, investments, and goods beyond energy.

The backdrop to this reset is a pragmatic recalibration. Diplomatic tensions, exacerbated by the 2023 Khalistan row and reciprocal expulsions, had chilled relations.

Yet, mutual economic imperatives—Canada’s need to diversify from US markets amid trade frictions, and India’s quest for reliable partners—have prevailed. Prime Minister Carney’s outreach reflects Ottawa’s broader pivot to Asia.

Clean energy collaboration adds strategic depth. Both nations are exploring hydrogen, biofuels, and emissions-reduction technologies, anchored in G7 commitments. Joint ventures in supply chain resilience could position them as leaders in sustainable energy transitions, blending Canada’s resource prowess with India’s manufacturing scale.

For India, this partnership mitigates risks in its energy import basket, currently 85 per cent foreign-sourced. Uranium inflows would fuel reactors like Kakrapar and Kudankulam, while LNG deals support city gas networks. Critical minerals secure battery production for 30 per cent EV adoption by 2030.

Canada gains a foothold in India’s $500 billion energy market by 2040, offsetting domestic political pressures and enhancing its Indo-Pacific presence. Experts see this as a model for issue-based diplomacy, where economics trumps ideology.

High-level visits, starting with Hodgson’s IEW participation—the first by a Canadian Cabinet Minister—pave the way. Carney’s March itinerary may include business roundtables and a CEPA signing ceremony, cementing the pivot. Follow-up dialogues will target investment flows and technology transfers.

Challenges persist, including parliamentary scrutiny in Canada over India’s human rights record and India’s wariness of extraterritorial probes. Yet, energy’s mutual benefits appear to outweigh frictions, heralding a phase of strategic convergence.

This energy-led reset underscores a broader truth: in geopolitics, pragmatism often resets ruptured ties. From rift to partnership, India and Canada are scripting a narrative of resilience and reciprocity, with March 2026 as the inflection point.

​Agencies