© Kuntal Biswas    

India's Indian Air Force (IAF) confronts a pressing squadron shortfall, currently operating at around 30 squadrons against an authorised strength of 42.

This deficit exposes vulnerabilities along tense borders with China and Pakistan, where air superiority remains pivotal.

Acquiring 114 multi-role fighters through imports, as debated for the Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) program, appears deceptively straightforward yet harbours crippling fiscal and strategic pitfalls.

Calculations reveal the staggering expense of such a procurement. At an estimated unit cost of £150 million for advanced platforms like the Rafale—factoring in flyaway price, weapons, spares, and training—the total outlay for 114 aircraft exceeds £17 billion.

This figure balloons further with offsets, infrastructure upgrades, and lifecycle support, easily surpassing £25 billion over a decade. India's defence budget, hovering at 1.9% of GDP or roughly £60 billion annually, allocates merely 20-25% to capital acquisitions, leaving scant room for such extravagance.

Historical precedents underscore the peril of import dependence. The Rafale deal for 36 jets already strained finances at over £7 billion, with delays in delivery and integration plaguing operations.

Scaling to 114 would amplify these issues, tying the IAF to foreign vendors for decades amid volatile geopolitics. Supply chain disruptions, as witnessed during the Ukraine conflict, could ground fleets, while escalating global prices—driven by inflation and raw material costs—render long-term affordability illusory.

The IAF's dire state demands sheer numbers over exquisite quality. Frontline squadrons equipped with ageing MiG-21s and Mirage-2000s face obsolescence, with accident rates underscoring urgent fleet renewal.

Imports, even if swiftly inducted, fail to address the need for 500 aircraft within a decade to reach 42 squadrons plus reserves. Each imported jet, burdened by high maintenance costs averaging £20,000 per flight hour, drains resources that could sustain multiple indigenous platforms.

Pushing the TEJAS MK-2 emerges as the pragmatic cornerstone. This 4.5-generation fighter, designed indigenously by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) and the Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA), promises a unit cost under £50 million—less than a third of imports.

With superior avionics, AESA radar, and net-centric warfare capabilities, it aligns with IAF requirements while fostering self-reliance. Prototypes are advancing, with first flight slated for 2027 and serial production by 2030, enabling rapid scaling to 200-300 units.

Yet TEJAS MK-2's success hinges on indigenous jet engine development. The GE F414 engine, powering initial batches, perpetuates foreign dependency, with royalties and supply risks.

The Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) Kaveri engine revival, now under the Technology Demonstration Vehicle program, targets 110-120 kN thrust by 2032. Parallel efforts like the HAL Dry Engine and private sector involvement via iDEX promise a fully 'Atmanirbhar' platform, slashing costs by 40% and insulating against sanctions.

Strategic imperatives amplify the case for indigenisation. Neighbouring adversaries like China's J-20 and Pakistan's potential J-35 acquisitions demand numerical parity, not boutique imports. A 500-aircraft infusion over 10 years—roughly 50 annually—necessitates production lines unfeasible with imports due to low vendor outputs.

TEJAS MK-2 lines at HAL Nashik and Bangalore, augmented by private partners like TATA and L&T, could deliver 25-30 jets yearly, scaling to 60 with investments.

Budgetary realism reinforces this shift. Imports devour foreign exchange reserves, currently at £500 billion but vulnerable to oil shocks and trade imbalances. Indigenous production recirculates funds domestically, spurring jobs, MSME growth, and tech ecosystems.

The 2025-26 defence allocation prioritises 'Make in India', with £10 billion earmarked for local fighters, enabling TEJAS MK-2 without fiscal distress.

Sceptics cite delays in Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) programs, yet reforms have accelerated timelines. Nashik's greenfield facility, operational since 2024, boosts MK-1A output to 16-24 jets annually, with 83 on order deliverable by 2029.

TEJAS MK-2 prototypes integrate Uttam radar and DRAL subsystems, proving maturity. Coupled with Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) development, this roadmap sustains the IAF through 2050.

Rafale's role, while valuable for high-end strikes, cannot anchor the fleet. Its 72-jet backlog for French forces limits exports, and integration with Su-30MKI-dominated IAF logistics proves cumbersome. Retaining 36-72 Rafales for nuclear deterrence makes sense, but mass induction risks overstretch.

Transitioning to TEJAS MK-2 variants—air superiority, maritime, and twin-engine—offers versatility without redundancy. Geopolitical winds favour self-reliance. Western export controls, as seen in S-400 sanctions threats, underscore risks. Russia, a traditional supplier, grapples with Ukraine war legacies, delaying Su-30 upgrades. Indigenous engines and platforms mitigate these, aligning with Quad partnerships for co-development rather than outright buys.

The IAF's survival demands a numbers-first doctrine powered by TEJAS MK-2 and indigenous propulsion. Imports patch holes; indigenisation builds fortresses.

With political will—evident in recent cabinet approvals—India can vault from deficit to dominance, securing skies for generations. Urgent investment in production, testing, and skills will turn this vision into squadrons aloft by 2035.

IDN (With Agency Inputs)