India's Indian Air Force has been pursuing a modern fighter jet acquisition for nearly two decades, a quest now approaching culmination amid pressing squadron shortages.

Reports indicate that New Delhi is in the final stages of approving and signing a contract with France for 114 additional Rafale jets, potentially sealed during French President Emmanuel Macron's forthcoming visit to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

This prospective deal would address the culmination of the Air Force's long-standing hunt, initiated post-Kargil War in 1999, when the service operated around 40 squadrons, many reliant on ageing MiG-21s.

Air Chief Marshal AP Singh's candid February 2025 rebuke of Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) at Aero India highlighted chronic delays in TEJAS MK-1A deliveries, with none of the 83 ordered jets yet handed over despite a 2021 contract.

The Air Force now fields just 30 active squadrons—each comprising 18-20 aircraft—against a sanctioned strength of 42, deemed essential to counter threats from China and Pakistan, marking its smallest fleet since the 1962 war.

The saga traces back to the post-Kargil era, when impressed by Mirage-2000's laser-guided bomb strikes on Tiger Hill, the Air Force sought 126 Mirage-2000-5 units as a stopgap before the indigenous Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) matured.

Cleverly framed as "additional" Mirages to bypass fresh procurement hurdles, the plan faltered in 2004 with the UPA government's arrival, which rejected single-vendor bulk buys and opted for a global competition.

This spawned the Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) contest—hailed as the "mother of all defence deals"—pitting six contenders: F-16 and F-18 (USA), MiG-35 (Russia), Gripen (Sweden), Eurofighter Typhoon (Europe), and Rafale (France).

Mirage production had ceased, with France even offering its full line to India, a move Delhi declined in favour of the open tender—a choice that arguably exacerbated today's squadron crisis.

Rigorous trials from 2007 onwards saw teams evaluate aircraft abroad, culminating in Rafale and Typhoon as frontrunners; Rafale clinched victory on technical merits, lifecycle costs, and France's non-sanctioning stance post-India's 1998 nuclear tests.

Negotiations hit "sticker shock": the deal's cost swelled from $10 billion to nearly $20 billion—half India's then-defence budget—likened to trading a modest Swift Dzire for a luxury SUV, burdened further by technology transfers.

A key impasse arose over 108 jets to be built by HAL, with India demanding Dassault certify their quality, a responsibility the French firm refused for non-self-built aircraft, stalling the 126-jet MMRCA.

The 2014 NDA government revived the pitch but prioritised indigenous efforts like Tejas, eventually side-lining the full tender in 2016 for a swift 36-jet off-the-shelf Rafale buy to meet urgent needs while nurturing local programs.

Bargaining reduced the IAF's 72-jet minimum to 36—two squadrons—one for the eastern (China) front, one western (Pakistan), with infrastructure readied for future expansions.

Signed in 2016 amid a New Delhi press conference between Modi and then-President François Hollande, the deal later ignited controversy, with Opposition cries of "scam" over alleged irregularities dominating 2019 polls, though the NDA secured a stronger mandate.

Political fallout shelved plans for 36 more Rafales, even as MiG-21s exceeded service life without Tejas replacements; the last squadron retired in September 2025, cementing the 30-squadron nadir.

The quest evolved into Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA), reviving MMRCA contours for 114 Rafales at an estimated ₹3.25 lakh crore (~$39 billion)—nearly half the 2025 defence budget.

Details suggest 18 jets direct from Dassault's Mérignac factory, the rest via a Nagpur line, plus upgrades to existing Rafales for Indian weapons integration, addressing gaps like BrahMos incompatibility during May 2025's Operation Sindoor finale.

Full disclosures are anticipated next month, with the IAF eyeing Modi-Macron signatures amid urgency: China projects over 1,000 fifth-generation fighters by decade's end, rendering 4.5-gen Rafales a vital necessity to keep India "at the table" in aerial contests.

Agencies