India is closely observing the escalating tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan, which risk spiralling into a full-scale conflict. Islamabad has declared an "open war" after conducting airstrikes on alleged terrorist hideouts in Afghanistan, prompting retaliatory measures from Kabul.

The conflict ignited last week when Pakistan conducted an airstrike on Kabul, prompting a robust retaliation from Afghan forces. Both nations have since reported substantial casualties inflicted upon the other, fuelling a cycle of accusations and counter-accusations.

However, unverified reports suggest that senior Taliban leaders may have perished in these strikes on Kabul, though Indian officials have been unable to confirm such details independently.

The once-promising relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan has deteriorated sharply since the Taliban's return to power in 2021. Initial optimism in Islamabad has given way to accusations that the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), or Pakistan Taliban, orchestrates attacks from Afghan soil. Pakistan has repeatedly targeted TTP bases and splinter groups there, while also claiming that Baloch insurgents receive sanctuary across the border.

Kabul has typically countered with what it describes as restrained military responses. This latest episode, however, marks a significant shift, as Pakistan's strikes have extended beyond terrorist sites to Afghan military installations in Kabul and other urban centres. The trajectory of escalation now hinges on the Taliban's willingness to intensify their reprisals.

New Delhi has condemned Pakistan's cross-border operations, particularly those causing civilian deaths, as a distraction from its internal shortcomings. Earlier this week, Indian officials labelled the airstrikes an effort to externalise domestic woes.

Simultaneously, External Affairs Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said India remains fully committed to the sovereignty, territorial integrity, and independence of Afghanistan.

"We are closely monitoring the situation. Three things are clear -- one, that Pakistan hosts terrorist organisations and sponsors terrorist activities," Jaiswal said.
"Two, it is an old practice of Pakistan to blame its neighbours for its own internal failures, and three, Pakistan is infuriated with Afghanistan exercising sovereignty over its own territories."

India's engagement with the Taliban has undergone a remarkable transformation in recent years. It began with substantial humanitarian aid to Kabul and has evolved into commitments for development projects, sidestepping the regime's lack of formal international recognition. This shift underscores a new dynamic that Pakistan must navigate amid the crisis.

The Taliban have reciprocated these positions in notable ways. During Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi's historic visit to India in October last year, a joint statement—much to Pakistan's irritation—affirmed Jammu and Kashmir as part of India. Kabul has also rejected Islamabad's allegations of Indian collusion with the TTP to undermine Pakistan.

A fractured Pakistan-Afghanistan relationship diminishes concerns over Islamabad's historical pursuit of "strategic depth" through Kabul. Yet, a major war threatening regional stability exceeds India's strategic calculations. Such turmoil arrives at an inopportune moment, just as New Delhi seeks to revive development initiatives after a phase of relative calm.

Following Muttaqi's assurances that Afghan territory will not host anti-India activities, India has reopened its embassy in Kabul. This move bolsters ongoing humanitarian, developmental, and capacity-building efforts. Projects already underway include hospitals and trauma centres in Kabul and beyond, with plans to deepen trade and investment links.

India is now evaluating a Taliban proposal for investment in Afghanistan's mining sector, where China has already established a foothold. Collaboration on hydroelectric schemes to address local energy demands also features prominently in discussions. These opportunities allow India to capitalise on its burgeoning ties with the Taliban regime.

A regional conflict, or its knock-on effects such as a humanitarian disaster or refugee influx, would derail these gains. India stands to lose momentum in expanding its influence in Taliban-governed Afghanistan, where it has methodically built goodwill through aid and infrastructure.

PTI