India is poised to halt the flow of surplus water from the Ravi River into Pakistan with the imminent completion of the Shahpur Kandi Dam by the end of March 2026. This development comes at a critical juncture as summer approaches, exacerbating Pakistan's existing water shortages.

The project, located on the Punjab-Jammu and Kashmir border, will enable India to redirect waters previously lost due to inadequate infrastructure, marking a significant shift in regional water management.

Historically, under the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, India holds exclusive rights over the eastern rivers—Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej—allowing unrestricted use for irrigation, power generation, and storage. Despite this, much of the Ravi's excess flow reached Pakistan via the Madhopur headworks because India lacked sufficient diversion capabilities.

The Shahpur Kandi barrage, delayed for decades over interstate disputes, will now store and channel approximately 11,500 cusecs of water for local use.

The dam's completion aligns with India's accelerated infrastructure push following the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty after the 2025 Pahalgam terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir, which claimed 25 tourist lives.

India cited cross-border terrorism as justification, fast-tracking hydropower and storage projects to optimise its treaty allocations. This move has heightened bilateral tensions, with Pakistan already grappling with reduced flows from western rivers post-suspension.

Once operational in April, the barrage will primarily benefit drought-prone districts like Kathua and Samba in Jammu and Kashmir, alongside Punjab's irrigation needs.

Jammu and Kashmir minister Javed Ahmed Rana emphasised that diverting these waters is a priority to alleviate local shortages, stating that excess flows to Pakistan "have to be stopped." The project also includes a 206 MW hydropower component, enhancing energy security in northern India.

Pakistan faces dire implications as summer heat intensifies water demand for agriculture, which consumes over 90 per cent of its supply. The Ravi contributes roughly 2-3 million acre-feet annually to Pakistan's canals, supporting crops in Punjab province.

Losing this surplus could strain reservoirs like those feeding the Indus basin, potentially slashing Kharif season yields and sparking shortages in urban centres such as Lahore.

Experts note that while India remains within its treaty rights on eastern rivers, the broader suspension amplifies the squeeze on Pakistan's 80 billion cubic metre annual water needs.

Pakistan has protested via diplomatic channels, warning of humanitarian crises, but India maintains the actions counter long-standing underutilisation of its share. Climate change, with receding glaciers feeding the Indus system, compounds these pressures for both nations.

Geopolitically, this underscores water as a strategic lever in India-Pakistan relations, echoing past disputes over the Kishanganga and Ratle projects. India's policy signals a zero-tolerance stance on terrorism-linked water cooperation, potentially reshaping South Asian hydro-diplomacy.

For Pakistan, over-reliance on the Indus system highlights the urgency of domestic reforms, including dam construction and efficiency measures.

The Shahpur Kandi project's roots trace back to 1920, but progress stalled until recent resolutions between Punjab and Jammu and Kashmir. Costing over ₹3,000 crore, it exemplifies India's 'Har Khet Ko Pani' initiative for comprehensive irrigation. Full utilisation could irrigate 32,000 hectares anew, bolstering food security amid rising populations.

As March-end nears, satellite imagery and official updates confirm near-completion, with inauguration likely by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This will end decades of Ravi water "wastage," as termed by Indian officials, redirecting resources inward. Regional stability now hinges on de-escalation, though water scarcity risks fuelling unrest in Pakistan's breadbasket.

The dam heralds a new era of assertive water sovereignty for India, calibrated against security threats, while portending parched fields and diplomatic friction for Pakistan.

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