Tensions in the Middle East have surged dramatically following Iran's launch of six multi-warhead missiles on the eve of Eid al-Fitr.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) described this as the 66th wave of Operation True Promise 4, targeting Israeli cities like Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, and Haifa, as well as US bases across the Gulf region.

These advanced munitions, including super-heavy precision-guided Qadr missiles with cluster warheads, Khorramshahr, Kheibar Shekan, and Zolfaqar variants, were deployed alongside attack drones. Iranian state media claimed successful strikes on key infrastructure, such as Haifa's oil refinery, though Israel reported minimal damage after interceptions.

The barrage came in direct retaliation for Israel's airstrikes on Iran's South Pars gas field, the world's largest natural gas reserve shared with Qatar, and the Asaluyeh oil refinery on 18 March 2026. The attack disrupted nearly 12 per cent of Iran's gas production, threatening its energy supply and prompting Tehran to vow further reprisals.

Simultaneously, Iranian missiles and drones targeted UAE sites, including Dubai, Abu Dhabi’s Habshan gas facility, and the Bab oil field, coinciding with Eid prayers. Dubai authorities confirmed successful interceptions with no casualties, but explosions sowed panic among residents during the holiday.

Hamas's al-Qassam Brigades, a key Iran-backed proxy, issued a stark Eid message honouring sacrifices in the resistance and praying for Jerusalem's liberation. This statement underscores the enduring Iran-Hamas alliance, with the brigades controlling supply lines for Iranian training and arms.

The "Mojtaba-aligned proxy" refers to forces loyal to Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran's new Supreme Leader following the assassination of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, by US-Israeli strikes. Mojtaba, seen as a hardliner tied to the IRGC, has signalled unyielding retaliation via proxies and threats to close the Strait of Hormuz.

IRGC Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani amplified this with an Eid message to "Resistance Front" leaders, pledging expanded proxy operations against US and Israeli targets. Hezbollah has already joined with rocket barrages into Israel, echoing the 2024 assassination of its leader Hassan Nasrallah.

US President Donald Trump, who approved the South Pars strike as a warning over Iran's Strait of Hormuz closure, has ruled out further energy site attacks. Yet, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed potential "round two" strikes with Trump, heightening fears of entrapment in prolonged conflict.

Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and the UAE face a dilemma, hosting US bases now in Iran's crosshairs while suffering energy strikes. Saudi warnings of military response highlight the risk of drawing Arab neighbours into the fray.

Global energy markets reeled, with oil prices spiking due to threats to 20 per cent of world supply via the Strait of Hormuz and damage to Gulf facilities. Iran's resilience in missile production despite 66 waves signals capacity for sustained warfare.

Hezbollah's integration into Iran's campaign, alongside Hamas and potential Houthi escalation, points to a unified "axis of resistance" strategy of asymmetric warfare. This approach leverages proxies to impose costs without full conventional war.

Mojtaba Khamenei's ascension rejects external dictation of Iran's leadership, framing the conflict as existential. His rhetoric emphasises deterrence, promising no easy exit for Trump and Netanyahu amid domestic calls for vengeance.

The Eid timing amplifies the psychological impact, transforming a festival of peace into one marred by sirens and strikes from Dubai to Haifa. Regional civilians endure repeated sheltering, with millions affected across multiple fronts.

As Iran boasts full missile replenishment capabilities, the cycle of retaliation—from South Pars to UAE targets—risks engulfing the Gulf. Trump's narrative on Truth Social and Netanyahu's Gaza ceasefire nods fail to quell the momentum toward wider war.

Proxy messages like the blood thirsty al-Qassam’s blend religious fervour with martial resolve, sustaining morale amid losses. This fusion of ideology and firepower ensures Iran's network remains potent, even under pressure.

The conflict's expansion beyond Israel-Iran binaries now imperils neutral Gulf economies, forcing diplomatic hedging. Without de-escalation, a deadlier phase looms, with Hormuz closure as Tehran's ultimate economic weapon.

HT