Patriot PAC-3 missile being fired at incoming missiles from Iran

Israel and the United States have executed Operation Rising Lion, a sweeping air and missile campaign that has severely degraded Iran’s military-industrial base, leaving its missile, drone, and nuclear capabilities at a fraction of pre-war levels, reported News18.

Independent defence analysts confirm that Iran’s arsenal regeneration will take years, reshaping the strategic balance in the Middle East.

Iran’s missile forces, once numbering 410 to 500 launchers, have been reduced to between 100 and 180 operational systems. Stockpiles of 2,500 to 3,000 missiles have dwindled sharply, with over 500 expended and hundreds destroyed before launch.

Daily firing rates have collapsed by more than 90 per cent, leaving Tehran with only 8 to 10 per cent of its pre-war ballistic missile capacity. This makes sustained barrages impossible, forcing reliance on sporadic, low-volume strikes.

Drone capabilities have suffered equally. Iran’s pre-conflict stockpiles, estimated in the thousands, have been gutted, with more than 2,000 drones lost. Launch rates have fallen by 83 to 95 per cent. Airbases and command nodes supporting drone operations lie in ruins, compelling Iran to deploy rudimentary, less effective models in smaller numbers. The battlefield impact of its drone fleet has been drastically curtailed.

Operation Rising Lion systematically dismantled Iran’s production infrastructure. Missile assembly lines, drone factories, component plants, storage depots, and supply chains were devastated. Key sites fabricating missiles, drones, and nuclear components have been erased, crippling Tehran’s ability to regenerate its arsenal. Analysts project years of rebuilding hurdles even under favourable conditions, with sanctions and isolation compounding the challenge.

Iran’s nuclear programme absorbed parallel blows. Natanz and Fordow facilities sustained catastrophic damage to centrifuges, power grids, and operational chambers, paralysing enrichment operations. 

Above-ground structures and access routes were heavily compromised, while the Isfahan uranium conversion complex and Taleghan testing ground also suffered major hits. Intelligence assessments suggest a multi-year setback to any nuclear weapons progression, with enrichment capacity effectively paralysed.

Air defence grids now operate at only 15 to 20 per cent efficacy, riddled with gaps. Command hierarchies and naval assets are largely impotent, while oil infrastructure strikes have spiked global prices and strained Iran’s economy. Leadership attrition and fractured chains of command hinder coordinated responses.

Though Iran retains limited capacity for pinpoint salvos and proxy harassment, sustained warfare is beyond reach. Israel, meanwhile, has reinforced deterrence supremacy, with Netanyahu declaring Iran’s strategic menace “decimated.” Analysts foresee a protracted stalemate, with Tehran weakened and adversaries consolidating gains, reshaping Middle Eastern fault lines.

News18