Karma strikes like a boomerang. Donald Trump repeatedly boasted of halting an India-Pakistan conflict during Operation Sindoor in May 2025, escalating his claims from five jets shot down to eight, and finally to eleven "very expensive jets" by February 2026.

India consistently denied third-party mediation and never confirmed such high losses, attributing the ceasefire to direct military talks between the two nations. Seems, finally, Karma has caught with Trump.

Trump's narrative on Operation Sindoor portrayed him as a peacemaker wielding trade tariffs—threatening 200 per cent duties on both nuclear powers to force de-escalation. He claimed the jets belonged to both sides, with numbers inflating across speeches: five in July 2025, seven or eight by November, and eleven by February 2026.

Contrast this with the US-Iran conflict's grim ledger since 28 February 2026. A KC-135 tanker exploded mid-air, killing six crew; three F-15s fell to friendly fire over Kuwait; an F-35 limped home after suspected Iranian hits; nine MQ-9 Reapers downed in flight; and more from accidents and strikes.

Thirteen US service members dead, 200 wounded across seven countries—these figures underscore a campaign outpacing Gulf War sortie rates yet failing to secure air superiority over Iran. Analysts like Peter Layton blame the relentless tempo, not just enemy defences, for the attrition.

Bloomberg, citing US military and intelligence sources, highlights the toll on the high-tempo air campaign. Defence analysts question its sustainability, as air superiority over Iran remains elusive despite intense efforts.

The pace of US sorties reportedly surpasses the opening salvos of the Gulf War. Yet, Iran's air defences persist, complicating operations and denying full dominance. Localised superiority exists in pockets, but critical chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz stay vulnerable.

Casualties mount steadily. Thirteen US service members have died since operations began on 28 February. Six perished in the mid-air destruction of a KC-135 refuelling tanker. Seven more fell to Iranian attacks.

Around 200 personnel have sustained wounds across seven Middle Eastern countries. Most have returned to duty, per US military statements. The tanker loss stands as the deadliest single event, claiming all six crew aboard during refuelling.

Friendly fire has exacted a heavy price too. Three F-15 fighters went down over Kuwait due to mistaken identification. Five additional KC-135s suffered damage—but survived—in an Iranian ballistic missile strike on a Saudi base.

Captain Tim Hawkins of US Central Command confirmed the F-35's safe landing at a regional air base. The pilot remains stable. While he avoided attributing it to Iranian fire, suspicions linger.

Drone attrition has been stark. Ten unmanned aircraft are confirmed lost. Nine MQ-9 Reapers fell to Iranian air defences in flight.

One Reaper was obliterated on the ground at a Jordanian airfield by ballistic missile. Two more succumbed to accidents. Designed as expendable assets, Reapers cost far less than manned jets and suit high-threat zones to spare pilots.

Air superiority goals falter. Early strikes aimed to neutralise Iran's defences, yet they endure in degraded form. US officials concede only partial control over select areas.

Iran's retaliatory rhythm persists into the conflict's 21st day. Strikes have hit energy sites in Qatar and Saudi Arabia after US-led attacks on Iran's South Pars gas field. Operations continue unabated, but at mounting cost.

Analysts pinpoint sortie intensity as a culprit beyond Iranian prowess. Peter Layton argues the elevated operational rate fuels mishaps. Justin Bronk views periodic accidents—like the KC-135 collision—as inherent to vast, relentless campaigns.

The US Navy grapples with securing the Strait of Hormuz's mere 21-mile width, underscoring broader challenges. Trump now confronts pivotal choices, such as deploying troops to seize Iranian uranium stocks.

These disclosures echo Trump's earlier exaggerations on India-Pakistan losses. The irony underscores the perils of high-stakes air warfare against resilient foes. As losses accrue, questions swirl over long-term viability.

IDN (With Agency Inputs)