Recent public impatience has surfaced after two weeks of intensive airstrikes against Iran, which have proven highly effective yet have not toppled the regime. Initial optimism that Iran's leaders might flee, akin to Bashar al-Assad's eventual exit, is waning. A more realistic assessment now prevails: this conflict will not resolve swiftly, analysed Yaron Buskila on Jerusalem Post portal, the author is a retired IDF commander and the CEO of the Israel Defence and Security Forum (IDSF).

This prompts a core question: can airstrikes alone vanquish Iran, or must ground forces play a pivotal role in securing victory?

Theoretically, air power offers an appealing strategy. Fighter jets, cruise missiles, and drones enable deep strikes into hostile territory, obliterating military installations, neutralising air defences, and crippling economies. With advanced precision intelligence and guided munitions, it seems feasible to coerce a regime—be it Iran's or another's—into collapse without deploying ground troops.

Historical precedents demonstrate air campaigns achieving political triumphs. NATO's 1999 operation against Yugoslavia stands out. Over 78 days, alliance aircraft hammered military sites, bridges, factories, and government buildings, exerting relentless pressure on the economy and strategic hinterland. Belgrade capitulated, withdrawing from Kosovo without a full-scale ground assault; sustained aerial and economic duress forced the settlement.

In 2011, NATO's Operation Unified Protector in Libya further illustrates this. Amid civil war against Muammar Gaddafi, hundreds of aircraft demolished air defences, bases, and loyalist forces. Gaddafi swiftly lost aerial dominance and much of his military efficacy. Though rebel ground advances contributed, they likely could not have ousted him without NATO's overwhelming air support.

These cases affirm that air operations can debilitate regimes, dismantle armed forces, and precipitate political downfall. However, they underscore a key nuance: even dominant air efforts typically culminate with ground dynamics—be it internal dissent or terrestrial advances.

Applying these insights to Iran reveals profound challenges. Iran spans a vast expanse, exceeding the combined area of France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom. Its military assets scatter across urban sprawls and rugged mountains, rendering comprehensive aerial neutralisation daunting.

Dispersed, mobile targets abound, from missile launchers to command posts, complicating total destruction despite superior strike capabilities.

Iran's armed forces boast hundreds of thousands of troops, including the formidable Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). These units are tailored for endurance, excelling in dispersal, concealment, urban warfare, and evasion of precision strikes.

Beyond hardware, political and societal resilience poses the greatest hurdle. Toppling Iran's theocracy demands more than ruined bases or factories; it requires fracturing the control apparatus that underpins regime survival.

Iran's populace harbours significant discontent. Recent waves of protests—over economics, student grievances, and women's rights—expose widespread rejection of IRGC ideology. Millions of youth, professionals, and the urban middle class view the regime as a barrier to prosperity.

Airstrikes eroding infrastructure could amplify this unrest, prompting economic, political, or military elites to abandon the clerics if their own positions appear untenable. A pivotal "turning of the guns" might ensue, with insiders defecting to align with public sentiment.

Yet even internal upheaval would likely necessitate ground elements for finality. Options include special forces raids on power centres, mobilising ethnic minorities to ignite internal fronts, or targeted incursions to stretch regime resources thin.

Air campaigns excel at initial disruption: shattering logistics, sowing doubt, and heaping pressure on leadership. Historical patterns, however, indicate regime falls hinge on ground-level convergence—protests, defections, or incursions.

In Iran's context, the tipping point may emerge not from the skies, but from streets, barracks, and shadows below, where human agency seals the breach opened by aerial might.

JP