Vietnam is currently contemplating a significant modernisation of its legacy air force to counter China’s rapid military expansion and escalating maritime tensions in the South China Sea, according to an analysis by Malaysia based web portal Defence Security Asia.

This effort has led to a strategic contest between the French-made Dassault Rafale and the Russian Su-57, reminiscent of similar procurement debates currently unfolding in India.

While Vietnam has maintained a long-standing interest in the Russian Su-57 since 2018, formal discussions regarding the acquisition of two to three squadrons of the Dassault Rafale have been progressing since late 2025.

Recent French media reports indicate that these negotiations are now in an advanced stage, presenting a potential landmark shift for Vietnam, a nation that has historically relied almost exclusively on Soviet and Russian military hardware.

The Vietnamese Air Force currently operates a fleet comprising approximately 70 to 72 active combat aircraft, including the Su-22M4, Su-27, and the primary Su-30MK2. As many of these legacy assets approach retirement age and lack the capabilities required for modern, networked warfare, Hanoi is under pressure to diversify its supplier base and strengthen defence ties with Western nations.

This potential acquisition follows the success of the French Rafale in Indonesia, which signed an US$8.1 billion contract for 42 jets in 2022 to diversify its own supply chains away from Russian dependency. Reports suggest that Vietnamese pilots have been granted the rare opportunity to test-fly the Rafale, signalling that discussions have moved into a serious operational phase.

Current estimates suggest Vietnam may look to acquire between 24 and 40 aircraft, with a projected program value between US$4 billion and US$8 billion. If a formal agreement is reached by the end of this year and signed in early 2027, the first deliveries would likely not commence until 2030, given the current heavy production backlog at Dassault Aviation.

Dassault Aviation achieved a record output of 26 Rafales in 2025, with a target of 28 for 2026 to meet orders from clients including India, Egypt, Greece, Serbia, and the UAE. This delivery timeline remains a point of concern for Hanoi, as its existing fleet is increasingly vulnerable to modern air defence systems and the growing presence of China’s fifth-generation J-20 and J-35A fighters.

The Rafale is viewed as a highly capable multi-role asset, offering precision strike, anti-ship, and air superiority functions, bolstered by its SPECTRA electronic warfare suite and RBE2 AESA radar. Its 3,700 km ferry range and significant payload capacity are particularly suited for operations across the South China Sea.

However, transitioning to the Rafale presents substantial logistical hurdles, including the necessity of establishing new maintenance infrastructure, training protocols, and weapon integration systems. These requirements would significantly elevate the overall life-cycle costs compared to maintaining existing Russian-origin equipment.

In contrast, the Russian Su-57 remains a strong contender due to its potential compatibility with Vietnam’s existing Su-30 and S-300PMU-2 infrastructure. This would allow Hanoi to leverage decades of accumulated maintenance expertise, though Russia’s ability to guarantee timely deliveries remains uncertain due to the ongoing Ukraine War, international sanctions, and domestic military demands.

The Su-57 has seen limited deployment in the Ukraine conflict for stand-off strikes, yet persistent questions regarding its true stealth capabilities—particularly from the rear—have persisted. Despite these concerns, it has secured Algeria as its first export customer, with deliveries reportedly starting earlier this year.

India faces a similar dilemma, currently balancing the integration of the Rafale with the need for fifth-generation technology. While India has ordered 36 Rafales and cleared the procurement of 114 additional units for the MRFA program, friction has emerged regarding France’s refusal to share critical source code.

Russia has sought to capitalise on this by offering India full source code access, local production opportunities, and technological support for India's indigenous AMCA program. Some analysts suggest that a binary choice is unnecessary, proposing that nations like India and Vietnam could pursue a dual-sourcing strategy.

This proposed approach would involve purchasing the Rafale to bolster immediate squadron strength and meet operational requirements, while procuring a limited number of Su-57s to address the emerging stealth gap. Regardless of the specific path chosen, the ultimate procurement decisions by India and Vietnam will significantly reshape regional deterrence and the strategic balance of power in the Indo-Pacific.

Agencies