India’s economic outlook is facing renewed uncertainty as global tensions escalate and oil prices climb higher. Gita Gopinath has issued a stark warning that the impact on India’s growth could be closer to half a percent if current trends persist.

This underscores the extent to which global energy markets directly shape domestic stability. Rising crude prices translate into higher fuel costs, mounting inflationary pressures, and strain on household budgets, creating a ripple effect across the wider economy.

The risks are not confined to energy alone. Remittances from millions of Indians working in the Gulf could also be disrupted if the conflict continues, adding another layer of vulnerability to India’s external accounts.

Gopinath described the present moment as a very uncertain outlook and a tough time to be a policymaker, with governments forced to balance multiple economic risks simultaneously. The challenge lies in navigating external shocks while safeguarding domestic resilience.

Her prescription is firmly rooted in strengthening India’s internal foundations. She emphasised the need for reforms, greater resilience, and a focus on keeping economic fundamentals strong. In her view, domestic stability remains the most effective shield against global volatility.

For India, this means putting its house in order first, ensuring that structural reforms and sound macroeconomic management provide the necessary buffer against external turbulence.

In a world marked by geopolitical conflict and unpredictable energy markets, internal strength is the surest defence.

TOI