India has intensified its efforts to ensure that not a single drop of water from its rivers flows into Pakistan, following the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty last year. The announcement was made by Water Minister CR Patil, who stated unequivocally that “not a single drop of water will go to Pakistan in the coming years.” 

He explained that the government is actively working on this directive under the guidance of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, signalling a decisive shift in India’s approach to shared water resources.

Pakistan has previously warned that any attempt to alter the flow of cross-border waterways would be considered an “act of war.” Islamabad maintains that the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty remains legally binding, arguing that there is no mechanism for unilateral withdrawal.

The treaty governs the use of six rivers whose headwaters originate in India but flow into Pakistan, forming part of the Indus basin that sustains hundreds of millions of people. The Indus itself cuts through the sensitive demarcation lines in Kashmir, a territory claimed in full by both countries.

India announced in May 2025 that it had suspended its membership of the treaty after accusing Pakistan of backing a deadly attack on tourists in Kashmir. The incident triggered a four-day conflict marked by intense drone, missile, and artillery exchanges, which claimed nearly 70 lives on both sides. Since then, water has remained a deeply contentious issue, with both nations viewing it through the lens of security and survival.

Earlier this month, Pakistan accused India of attempting to “weaponize” water after New Delhi unveiled two initiatives concerning the Chenab River. In May, India’s National Hydroelectric Power Corporation issued a tender notice for a tunnel project designed to transfer water from the Chenab to the Beas Basin. Additionally, India’s power ministry confirmed in January that sediment removal was being undertaken at the Salal Power Station on the Chenab River, citing the termination of the Indus Waters Treaty as justification.

Experts caution that India’s current dam infrastructure does not possess the capacity to completely block or divert water flows. At present, the dams can only regulate the timing of releases rather than halt them entirely. Any attempt to cut flows would carry serious consequences for Pakistan’s agriculture and economy, but such projects would take years to materialise. Officials in Indian-controlled Kashmir have indicated that work on new initiatives could not begin before mid-2027 and would require at least five years to complete.

The developments highlight the growing strategic importance of water in the India-Pakistan relationship. For India, the suspension of the treaty and subsequent measures represent a broader policy of linking hydrological decisions to national security imperatives.

For Pakistan, the prospect of reduced water flows poses existential challenges to its agricultural sector and food security. The issue underscores how shared natural resources can become flashpoints in already fraught geopolitical rivalries, with long-term implications for regional stability.

Agencies