India and the United States have advanced their trade negotiations after US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer’s two‑day meeting with Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal in New Delhi on 23–24 June.

Experts at the Asia Society Policy Institute caution, however, that despite progress, key differences remain unresolved and a final agreement is not yet within reach.

Wendy Cutler, Senior Vice President at ASPI, observed that concluding a trade deal with India is proving elusive. She explained that each side has its own priorities and red lines which continue to block a successful conclusion. She also noted that developments over the past year have created a trust deficit in Delhi, complicating efforts to wrap up the negotiations.

Cutler emphasised that India is seeking greater clarity on tariff arrangements before finalising any agreement. She stated that India wants a preferential tariff edge over competitors and is unwilling to conclude until there is clarity on tariff rates and product exclusions. She added that India is also seeking assurances from Washington against further tariff hikes, which she suggested may be a bridge too far for the Trump administration.

While acknowledging the progress made, Cutler warned that the final stage of negotiations is often the most difficult. She remarked that being close to a deal is welcome news, but the toughest matters usually remain at the end, meaning further rounds of talks are likely.

Farwa Aamer, Director of South Asia Initiatives at ASPI, highlighted that sustained engagement from both governments points to the possibility of an agreement, though challenges persist. She explained that the continued effort from both sides shows promise, but lingering uncertainty and speed bumps remain.

Aamer noted that broader geopolitical factors have influenced the negotiations. She explained that divergences between New Delhi and Washington have shaped India’s approach, which has been cooperative but more assertive. She also pointed out that domestic pressure on Indian leadership to secure a balanced and fair deal has added weight to the talks.

She suggested that an interim agreement could provide a boost to the broader bilateral relationship. If concluded within the anticipated timeframe, such a deal would help strained US‑India ties and lend momentum to other areas of cooperation. Both countries stand to benefit from a comprehensive agreement.

Aamer also underlined India’s efforts to diversify its trade partnerships. She explained that India is proactively engaging other partners in parallel, recognising the need to expand its trade portfolio and reduce vulnerabilities. She added that US trade policy has accelerated India’s hedging behaviour, reinforcing the importance of diversification.

The negotiations therefore remain at a critical juncture. While progress has been made, the unresolved issues of tariffs, trust, and broader geopolitical pressures mean further rounds of talks are inevitable before a final agreement can be secured.

ANI