China’s J-20 stealth fleet has now surpassed 500 aircraft, making it the most procured fighter type by any service since the Cold War, while India continues to struggle to reach its target of 42 squadrons, operating only 29 at present.

This widening gap underscores the urgency of India’s modernisation efforts as China accelerates production at industrial scale.

Defence analyst Thomas Newdick, writing for The War Zone, estimates that roughly 500 Chengdu J-20s have been delivered. His assessment, compiled from production serial numbers, satellite imagery, factory observations and reported operational deployments, compensates for the lack of an official Chinese disclosure on the aircraft’s fleet size.

China’s J-20 entered service in 2017 and has matured into a mass-produced fifth-generation platform. By mid-2025, the fleet had crossed 300 aircraft, and by July 2026, deliveries had expanded to at least 504 fighters across eighteen brigades, with additional units allocated for training.

Estimates suggest the total may already exceed 600. Production rates of 100–120 aircraft annually could see the fleet approach 1,000 by 2030. The J-20A variant, equipped with twin WS-15 engines, has enhanced thrust, range, and manoeuvrability, consolidating China’s position as the world’s second most powerful air force.

The United States Air Force, by comparison, has received around 430–450 F-35A fighters since 2011, but production has slowed to 24–40 per year. China’s scale of deliveries far outpaces Western expectations, with the J-20 fleet rivalling the F-35 in numbers but concentrated entirely within the PLA Air Force.

This concentration provides China with unmatched force density in the Indo-Pacific, enabling rapid sortie generation and sustained operations.

India, meanwhile, faces a persistent shortfall. The Indian Air Force operates only 29 fighter squadrons against a sanctioned strength of 42. Losses during the May 2025 Kashmir skirmishes highlighted vulnerabilities, with reports of Rafale and MiG-29 losses to Pakistan’s J-10C armed with PL-15 missiles.

Pakistan’s integrated Chinese-origin ecosystem of HQ-9P air defence, PL-15 missiles, and ZDK-03 AWACS contrasts with India’s mixed fleet of Russian, Western, and indigenous systems, which suffer from integration challenges.

India’s indigenous Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft program is unlikely to be operational before 2035, leaving a capability gap. Russia’s renewed offer of Su-57 joint production could provide a faster path to fifth-generation capability, but doubts remain over Russia’s production capacity and India’s strategic shift towards diversification.

Russia has only 32 Su-57s as of January 2026, far short of its target of 76 by 2027–28, with production disrupted by sanctions and Ukrainian strikes.

China’s broader air force expansion compounds India’s challenge. The PLA Air Force now fields between 2,000 and 2,500 combat aircraft, including hundreds of J-20s and nearly 500 J-16s.

This industrial-scale modernisation has allowed China to surpass Russia numerically and qualitatively, reshaping the Indo-Pacific balance. Deployments of J-20s at Shigatse Air Base in Tibet, less than 160 kilometres from India’s border, directly threaten India’s Siliguri Corridor.

India’s reliance on Russian arms is declining, with imports from Russia falling from 46% in 2017–21 to 40% in 2021–25. New orders with France, Israel, and the United States reflect diversification, but the pace of domestic production remains slow. Hindustan Aeronautics Limited awaits Russia’s financial quotation for Su-57s, yet the risk of undermining indigenous development complicates the decision.

The disparity is stark: China’s J-20 fleet already exceeds 500 aircraft, while India struggles to maintain squadron strength. Unless India accelerates both indigenous programs and external acquisitions, the regional air balance will continue to tilt decisively in China’s favour.

Agencies