Russian crude accounted for only about 2 per cent of India’s import basket before the Ukraine war. Heavy discounts offered from April 2022 rapidly altered that pattern, and Russia became India’s largest crude supplier from 2023 onwards. In 2025-26, India imported crude oil worth approximately ₹3.5 lakh crore from Russia, representing around 30.3 per cent of the country’s total crude imports. Rather than reducing exposure, the war increased India’s reliance on Russian energy supplies.

Recent fluctuations in imports appear to have been driven more by supply conditions and sanctions pressure than by any long-term strategic shift. A key turning point came with the February tariff agreement between India and the United States.

Washington had imposed a 50 per cent tariff on Indian goods, including a 25 per cent penalty linked to purchases of Russian oil. On 2 February, President Donald Trump announced that the overall tariff would be reduced to 18 per cent and stated that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had agreed to halt Russian oil imports.

However, the joint statement issued after the discussions made no reference to Russian oil. The Indian government neither confirmed nor denied such a commitment, maintaining that energy purchases are determined by national interest. An executive order stipulated that the additional 25 per cent tariff could return if India resumed buying Russian oil.

Market observers interpreted the decline in Russian crude arrivals during February as an effort to diversify supply sources.

Reports also indicated that major Indian refiners avoided purchasing Russian cargoes scheduled for March and April delivery.

The situation changed sharply after the Iran conflict began on 28 February. Russian crude accounted for only 18.7 per cent of India’s imports in February, but its share climbed to nearly 50 per cent by July as imports from the Middle East fell by 63 per cent.

There is no clear indication that Washington reinstated the tariff during this period. Trade data showed that Russian crude imports reached a record 2.82 million barrels per day in July before dropping by 26.3 per cent to 2.08 million barrels per day in August.

The August decline was attributed largely to Chinese refiners outbidding Indian buyers for available Russian cargoes. As a result, Russia’s share of India’s crude imports fell from 55.9 per cent to 45 per cent. Analysts described the trade as being influenced by sanctions cycles and market conditions rather than by any structural shift in policy.

During the first half of September, imports fell further to roughly 1.42 million barrels per day, around 30 per cent below the August average. Industry experts linked the reduction to attacks on Russian oil infrastructure that tightened global supply availability.

As Russian volumes eased, Iraq emerged as an important alternative supplier. At the same time, discussions between New Delhi and Moscow at the BRICS summit in mid-September focused on strengthening broader trade ties, suggesting that the slowdown was not intended as a political signal.

Future developments may depend heavily on United States policy. Proposed American legislation could give the President authority to impose tariffs of up to 100 per cent on countries purchasing Russian energy.

Taken together, the energy relationship does not support a straightforward narrative of India reducing dependence on Russia. Instead, India continues to act as a pragmatic hedger, purchasing discounted Russian crude when conditions are favourable and shifting to alternative suppliers when sanctions, supply disruptions or geopolitical pressures make such adjustments necessary.

Agencies