Showing posts with label Aukus. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Aukus. Show all posts

Sunday, June 21, 2026

USPACOM Reversion Signals Strategic Shift And India’s New Burden


The United States Department of Defence has announced the reversion of its largest combatant command from U.S. Indo-Pacific Command back to U.S. Pacific Command.

The Pentagon described the move as administrative housekeeping, a tribute to the command’s heritage dating to 1947.

Yet in Washington’s diplomatic circles, and more so in New Delhi, this explanation has found little acceptance. The deletion of the prefix “Indo” dismantles nearly a decade of strategic signalling that had deliberately placed India at the centre of American grand strategy.

The insertion of “Indo” in 2018 under the Trump administration was a calculated geopolitical act. It stitched together the Pacific and Indian Oceans into a single theatre, formally positioning India as a pillar of U.S. strategy.

The Biden years and early Trump years reinforced this architecture. The 2026 reversion dismantles it. This is not bureaucratic tidying but a recalibration of priorities. From a grand strategic vision, Washington has shifted to a tactical level.

The Indo-Pacific concept was ambitious. It dissolved the artificial boundary between East and South Asia, drew India into a unified strategic matrix, and signalled to Beijing that the arc from the Persian Gulf to the Pacific was under American attention. It was expansive geopolitical engineering. That era has ended.

With finite military resources stretched across Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and East Asia, Washington can no longer sustain uniform engagement across such a vast canvas. By reverting to Pacific Command, the Pentagon admits that the acute challenge from China is concentrated in the Western Pacific—the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and the First Island Chain.

This marks a shift from geographic breadth to operational precision. American command structures, logistics chains, and deployment doctrines are being optimised for one scenario above all others: a high-intensity conflict with China in the Pacific, fought alongside treaty allies Japan and the Philippines.

The Indian Ocean, and India by extension, falls outside this primary frame. Pentagon officials have reassured New Delhi that geographic boundaries and force allocations remain unchanged, but the timing of the announcement—on the eve of the G7 summit—suggests Washington is comfortable sending an uncomfortable message.

The India-U.S. relationship has already been drifting into transactional territory. India’s refusal to condemn Russia’s actions in Ukraine, its continued economic engagement with sanctioned states, and disputes over trade and tariffs have cooled what was once described as the defining partnership of the 21st century. The rebrand mirrors this friction. Excising “Indo” without prior consultation signals that India’s symbolic centrality has limits.

The Quad is a visible casualty. The grouping of the U.S., India, Japan, and Australia was positioned as the premier framework for a free and open Indo-Pacific. That framing now looks hollow. The Quad’s vulnerability lies in its contradictions. Japan and Australia are U.S. treaty allies with high interoperability and shared threat perceptions.

India is neither. New Delhi has resisted transforming the Quad into a hard military alliance. Its security calculus remains land-based, shaped by volatile borders with Pakistan and China, while its partners view challenges through a maritime lens.

Washington has drawn conclusions. The rapid maturation of AUKUS—the U.S.-UK-Australia submarine pact—and the deepening U.S.-Japan-South Korea alliance show where strategic investment flows. These are tight, legally binding arrangements built for deterrence.

The Quad, by contrast, has pivoted toward softer cooperation: vaccines, climate technology, infrastructure financing. Useful, but strategically peripheral. The USPACOM reversion makes this hollowing official.

For India, the retirement of the Indo-Pacific command title is clarifying. Three implications stand out. First, Washington expects India to serve as the primary security provider across the Indian Ocean Region. American forces are anchoring westward in the Pacific.

Maritime corridors from Bab-el-Mandeb to Malacca—critical for energy flows and trade—will increasingly be India’s responsibility. This demands urgent naval modernisation, expanded maritime domain awareness, and a credible net-security-provider posture.

Second, India’s doctrine of strategic autonomy looks wiser in hindsight. If the U.S. can reshape its definitions unilaterally, India’s insistence on diversified options is justified. Investments in the Global South, engagement with middle powers, and refusal to be locked into exclusive alignments are insurance, not liabilities.

Third, India’s northern borders demand sober attention. The notion that maritime partnership with the West could generate leverage against Chinese pressure along the Line of Actual Control was always tenuous.

The USPACOM reversion strips away that illusion. Washington’s hyper-focus on the Pacific means India must manage its multi-front friction with Beijing—on land, in the Himalayas, and in the Indian Ocean—through its own tools. This requires pragmatic bilateral competition with China, managed at arm’s length.

The transition closes the chapter on romanticised Indo-Pacific solidarity and opens a fragmented maritime order. Washington has signalled that its patience and resources are finite, and that the Pacific comes first. For India, this is not abandonment but clarity.

Comfortable illusions about shared burdens are gone. The challenge is to translate clarity into action: faster naval expansion, sharper diplomacy, and foreign policy anchored in self-reliance.

The oceans have bifurcated again. India must decide quickly what kind of power it intends to be in the one it calls its own.

Agencies


Friday, June 27, 2025

US To Hold Quad Foreign Ministers Meeting On July 1: State Department


The United States will host the next QUAD Foreign Ministers Meeting on July 1, 2025, in Washington DC, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio welcoming his counterparts from Australia, India, and Japan. 

This gathering is part of ongoing efforts to strengthen the QUAD partnership—a strategic grouping focused on ensuring a free, open, and secure Indo-Pacific region. The meeting was officially announced by Principal Deputy Spokesperson Tommy Pigott, who emphasised that this summit builds on the momentum from previous QUAD engagements and showcases American leadership in fostering strength, peace, and prosperity in the region.

The QUAD, comprising the US, Australia, India, and Japan, originated from joint efforts in response to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and has since evolved into a key diplomatic alliance addressing regional security, economic opportunity, and technological collaboration.

The upcoming meeting will focus on advancing these priorities, particularly in light of recent geopolitical developments and concerns about China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific.

India is expected to advocate for stronger anti-terror measures, especially following the recent Pahalgam attack, and the discussions will also cover broader issues including the situation in West Asia. 

This meeting serves as a preparatory step for the QUAD Leaders’ Summit, which India will host later this year and for which US President Donald Trump, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese are expected to attend.

Despite recent challenges—such as differences over defence spending with Japan, AUKUS-related tensions with Australia, and India-US friction over Pakistan—the QUAD has maintained its focus on security, prosperity, technology, and homeland security.

The Washington meeting is seen as an opportunity to refocus on Indo-Pacific strategic issues and reaffirm the group’s shared commitment to upholding sovereignty, territorial integrity, and opposition to unilateral changes to the status quo through force or coercion.

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar will represent India and is also expected to hold bilateral meetings with US officials during his visit, which comes just ahead of key trade negotiations between the two countries. The outcomes of the July 1 meeting will likely set the agenda for the upcoming leaders’ summit in New Delhi, further reinforcing the QUAD’s role as a cornerstone of regional stability and cooperation.

Based On ANI Report


Thursday, April 10, 2025

AUKUS Nuclear Submarine Sale Under Scrutiny As Trump Tariffs Rattle Australia


The AUKUS agreement, a trilateral security pact between Australia, the United States, and the United Kingdom, aims to bolster Australia's defence capabilities by providing nuclear-powered submarines. However, the deal faces scrutiny due to strategic, political, and logistical challenges.

Australia plans to acquire three Virginia-class submarines from the U.S. starting in 2032, with a long-term goal of building SSN-AUKUS submarines domestically by 2040.

Concerns have arisen in Washington about transferring submarines from the U.S. fleet to Australia, potentially weakening deterrence against China in the Indo-Pacific region. Experts argue that Australia's reluctance to openly discuss using these submarines in wartime scenarios undermines their strategic value.

U.S. shipyards face delays in meeting their own Navy's needs, raising doubts about whether they can support Australia's submarine acquisition. Additionally, Australia must pay $2 billion by 2025 to upgrade its submarine shipyards.

Budget constraints and workforce shortages in Australia could further delay the program.

Domestic politics in Australia may impact AUKUS implementation. Disappointment over Trump's tariffs and calls for a review of the submarine deal have intensified public scrutiny ahead of the May 2025 election.

While major Australian parties support AUKUS, independent lawmakers critical of Trump could gain influence if a hung parliament emerges.

In simulated war games, Australian commanders opted not to deploy nuclear-powered submarines offensively against China but instead focused on defending Australia's northern approaches. This strategy highlights Australia's priority of protecting its mainland as a forward base for U.S. forces rather than engaging directly in regional conflicts like Taiwan.

Critics argue that AUKUS sets a precedent for non-nuclear states using naval reactor programs under reduced oversight, potentially undermining global non-proliferation efforts.

The AUKUS agreement is pivotal for countering China's influence in the Indo-Pacific but faces significant hurdles related to production capacity, strategic alignment, and political support. While it strengthens alliances and enhances Australia's defence capabilities, questions remain about its long-term feasibility and effectiveness in deterring aggression.

Reuters


Wednesday, February 12, 2025

US Congressman Rich McCormick Wants To See India Included In 'AUKUS' Group


An American lawmaker stated, "AUKUS does not include India right now but I would love to see it expand". McCormick commented on the AUKUS pact, stating, "It (AUKUS) does not include India right now but I would love to see it expand because India could be an incredibly strong ally."

AUKUS is a security partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, formed in 2021 to strengthen security and defence. AUKUS aims to promote a free and open Indo-Pacific region that is secure and stable. The alliance focuses on enhanced cooperation, deeper information and technology sharing, and the integration of security and defence-related science, technology, industrial bases, and supply chains.

During a discussion on trade relations between India and the United States, Representative McCormick noted that the trade deficit between the two countries isn't large, which he views as positive. He expressed a belief in free trade and suggested India could produce goods currently manufactured in China, especially given current geopolitical tensions.

McCormick also raised concerns about India reselling Russian oil to Europe, which he believes indirectly supports the war in Ukraine. He emphasised the importance of the U.S. and India aligning on global issues, particularly Russia's actions in Ukraine, and that India should "weigh in on the correct side of history" as it expands its economy.

India's economic potential is garnering attention from global leaders. According to Goldman Sachs Research, India's economy is expected to grow at an average of 6.5% between 2025 and 2030. However, their 6.3% forecast for 2025 is 40 basis points below the consensus of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, due to declining public capital expenditure growth.

Rich McCormick's perspective Reflecting on India's potential, Rich McCormick said, "... We have had really good economic ties historically and we can actually have greater economic ties in the future...A country that has limitless potential in production, industry, and innovation...India is here to stay...".

Michael Cheokas's perspective Michael Cheokas, Georgia State Representative, believes that President Trump's pro-business stance would benefit both the Indian and US economies.

Deloitte's analysis Deloitte expects India to grow between 6.5% and 6.8% in fiscal year 2024 to 2025 and between 6.7% and 7.3% in fiscal year 2025 to 2026.

Australian Treasury's projections The Australian Treasury projects that India will grow at an average of around 6% annually over the next two decades. The India Economic Strategy judges India is likely to grow at 6–8% annually to 2035.

Several factors are expected to drive India's economic growth, including favourable demographics, stable governance, strong agricultural performance, and a thriving services sector. Manufacturing exports, especially in high-value-added components, also highlight India's increasing role in global value chains.

Challenges remain, including a tempered global growth outlook, geopolitical uncertainties, and the need for improvements in education, healthcare, and infrastructure. To reach its full potential, India may need to accelerate its growth to 9% CAGR over the next 20 years.

AUKUS has two main components:

Pillar 1 Aims to help Australia in acquiring nuclear-powered submarines.

Pillar 2 Focuses on collaborative development of advanced capabilities in areas like undersea capabilities, quantum technologies, AI, advanced cyber, hypersonic and counter-hypersonic capabilities, electronic warfare, innovation, and information sharing.

AUKUS is widely considered a response to China's growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region. As such, the alliance is reportedly planning to expand and add more members. Countries including Japan, Canada, and New Zealand have expressed interest in joining the bloc.

ANI


Friday, January 24, 2025

Rolls-Royce wins $11 billion UK nuclear submarine contract


The UK government has awarded Rolls-Royce a significant contract valued at £9 billion (approximately $11 billion) for the design and manufacture of nuclear reactors to power its submarine fleet. This eight-year contract, known as "Unity," aims to enhance the Royal Navy's nuclear capabilities and is part of the Labour government's strategy to reinforce the UK's nuclear deterrent under Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

Rolls-Royce will not only design and manufacture the reactors but will also provide ongoing support services for these nuclear systems.

The deal is anticipated to boost British business and national security, with Defence Secretary John Healey emphasizing its role in delivering long-term benefits for the economy and taxpayers.

The Unity contract is expected to generate over 1,000 new jobs and preserve an existing 4,000 positions within the UK.

This initiative aligns with the UK’s commitment to maintaining continuous at-sea deterrence, ensuring that at least one nuclear-armed submarine is operational at all times. It also supports the AUKUS defence partnership with the US and Australia.

This contract marks a pivotal investment in Britain's defence infrastructure, allowing Rolls-Royce to enhance its manufacturing capabilities in Derby, where it plans to nearly double production capacity to meet increasing demands from the Royal Navy.

Reuters


Tuesday, November 5, 2024

Australia, India Say Result Won't Impact Quad Alliance After US Elections 2024


Australia and India have expressed confidence that the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election will not affect the Quad alliance, which includes the United States, India, Australia, and Japan. On November 5, 2024, both nations' foreign ministers reaffirmed their commitment to ongoing collaboration within the Indo-Pacific region, regardless of who wins the election.

Penny Wong, Australia's Foreign Minister, stated that she had productive discussions with former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo before the election and emphasized that Australia would work with whoever the American public elects. She highlighted bipartisan support for the AUKUS defence partnership, which involves transferring nuclear-powered submarines to Australia, marking it as Australia's most expensive defence initiative to date.

EAM S Jaishankar, India's External Affairs Minister, echoed this sentiment by noting that the Quad was revitalized during the Trump administration in 2017. He expressed optimism that U.S.-India relations would strengthen regardless of the election results.

Both ministers underscored the strategic importance of the Quad in enhancing stability in the Indo-Pacific region, particularly in light of criticisms from China, which views the alliance as a containment strategy. The Quad leaders had previously agreed to enhance military cooperation and conduct joint coast guard patrols.


Sunday, April 21, 2024

'South Pacific Shouldn't Become Arena For Great Power Competition': China Attacks AUKUS


Port Moresby: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi targeted Western powers in the AUKUS trilateral security partnership and accused them of provoking division and raising nuclear proliferation risks in the South Pacific, Nikkei Asia reported on Sunday.

AUKUS is a trilateral security partnership designed to create a stronger, more resilient trilateral submarine industrial base, supporting submarine production and maintenance in all three countries.

This comes as Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi lauded diplomatic achievements with Papua New Guinea on his visit to the country on Saturday, part of Beijing's initiative to strengthen ties with the Pacific Island nations.

The Chinese foreign minister's visit comes just days before Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is due to arrive in Papua New Guinea, once again highlighting a tussle for influence between China and US allies.

Nikkei Asia reported, referencing announcements made by AUKUS nations that they are considering cooperating with Japan on sharing advanced technology earlier this month, Wang said, "Recent attempts to draw more countries to join in such an initiative of stoking bloc confrontation is completely inconsistent with the urgent needs of island countries."

He slammed US and Australia's relationship with Pacific island nations, saying, "The South Pacific region should not become an arena for great power competition. No country should regard island countries as its 'backyard' and should not engage in zero-sum games or exclusionary arrangements," alluding to historical views that Australia considered the South Pacific to be its backyard.

Beijing and Port Moresby will also start free trade agreement negotiations as soon as possible and build police cooperation, according to a press release published by the Foreign Ministry after Wang's meeting with Tkatchenko, Nikkei Asia reported.

In recent years, Beijing's attempts to push for police and security agreements with Papua New Guinea had been unsuccessful, Nikkei Asia reported.

During a tour of Pacific island countries in June 2022, Wang proposed a wide-ranging regional security deal that would increase China's involvement in police training, cybersecurity and sensitive marine mapping while gaining greater access to natural resources. The deal ultimately collapsed, with Papua New Guinea among those that rejected the proposal.

"There has been resentment over the Pacific agreement on security matters," Papua New Guinea's foreign affairs secretary Elias Wohengu told the Post Courier newspaper at the time. Wohengu indicated that Papua New Guinea was unlikely to sign a security deal, saying, "On the security status of Papua New Guinea, we will deal with it ourselves."

Washington and Canberra has criticised China, which has made in the Solomon Islands.

"The increased policing presence in the Solomon Islands is concerning," John Aquilino, commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, told reporters in Sydney earlier this month. "That's the foot in the door."

But while the big players jostle for influence, Papua New Guinea has stayed "pragmatic in its approach to global powers," said Australian National University PhD candidate Michael Kabuni.

This has meant positioning Australia and the US as security partners while maintaining ties with China as an important economic partner, it reported.

This report is auto-generated from a syndicated feed


Wednesday, April 17, 2024

Missiles, Drones And Warships The Priority As Australia Plans $32 Billion Defence Boost


Australia will boost defence spending by A$50.3 billion ($32 billion) over the next decade and reshuffle its weapons programs to emphasise missiles, drones and warships as it looks to the possibility of a Pacific conflict between China and the U.S.

The bulk of the new spending, part of a A$330 billion decade-long budget, will only kick in after five years, and ultimately take defence spending to 2.4% of GDP by 2034 from just over 2% today.

Announced by Defence Minister Richard Marles on Wednesday, the new funding reflects new priorities, such as long-range missiles, that Australia believes are necessary in a world where a potential conflict between China and the United States could upend the region.

"The optimistic assumptions that guided defence planning after the end of the Cold War are long gone," Marles said in a speech at the national press club. "Our environment is characterised by the uncertainty and tensions of entrenched and increasing strategic competition between the United States and China."

Just over 40%, or up to A$145 billion, is set for the navy, including a beefed-up surface fleet, the AUKUS nuclear-powered submarine program as well as other priorities such as the Ghost Shark undersea drone.

A fifth, or up to A$74 billion, will go toward missile-related programs, whose importance was flagged in a review last year. There will be new longer-range missiles for the air force and army, missile defence programs and domestic manufacturing of guided weapons, the review said.

Military bases across the country's north, where U.S. Marines are based for months of training and exercises each year, will be allocated up to A$18 billion for upgrades.

This report is auto-generated from a syndicated feed


Thursday, April 11, 2024

Joe Biden Hosts Japan's PM At White House, In Strong Message To China Over Policies In Indo-Pacific


Washington: US President Joe Biden on Wednesday hosted Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio for a state visit and held a crucial Oval Office meeting, reinforcing his commitment to bolstering the vital partnership in the Indo-Pacific amid a militarily and economically resurgent China, CNN reported.

Over 70 items covering a wide array of critical sectors are expected to be announced as part of the bilateral meeting between Biden and Kishida, according to senior administration officials.

These include a commitment to changing the US force structure in Japan to improve how Japanese and US forces are integrated, establish a 'military-industrial council' to evaluate where the two countries can co-produce defence weapons to improve cooperation, and items related to integrating anti-missile defence between the US, Australia and Japan, according to officials.

The announcements are all part of a major update to the nation's military alliance but elements of them will take some time to implement, including the change to the US force structure, which will take several months for both countries to work through, a senior official noted, according to CNN.

Speaking on the White House, South Lawns, on Wednesday morning, Biden touched on the "monumental alliance between our two great democracies."

"Together, we made it closer, stronger and more effective than ever before in history," Biden said at an official arrival ceremony.

He also recognised Japan's gift of 3,000 cherry trees more than 100 years ago as a symbol of that alliance, blooming each spring in Washington, DC. Japan has committed to planting 250 new trees along the Tidal Basin to honour the US's 250th birthday in 2026.

Biden acknowledged the 'devastating' history between the US and Japan. He travelled to Hiroshima last year for a summit with G7 leaders and toured the Hiroshima Peace Museum, which chronicles the vast destruction of the US atomic bomb in the city in 1945, in the closing days of World War II.

It would have been easy for the two countries to remain adversaries given their bloody history, Biden noted.

"Instead," he said, "we made a far better choice: We became the closest of friends."

"Today", Biden added, "Our democracies are beacons of freedom shining across the globe."

The leaders are also expected to detail space collaboration at a time when Japan has signalled an interest in landing its first astronaut on the Moon and lay out ways to increase people-to-people ties amid lagging student exchanges between the two countries in recent years. The astronaut would be the first non-American to set foot on the moon.

Some of these partnerships include a joint artificial intelligence research initiative between Carnegie Mellon University and Keio University in Tokyo, as well as another AI-related exchange between the University of Washington and Washington State and Tsukuba University in Japan, according to the officials. This will also include creating a scholarship to fund high school students from the US to travel to Japan to study and vice versa.

But even as the US and Japan are bolstering their cooperation across a range of sectors, the two countries have seen a recent difference on the economic front with the president opposing Japan's efforts to purchase US Steel.

Responding during a joint news conference to a question about the acquisition of the company-- at one point one of the most powerful companies in the world--by Japan-based Nippon Steel, Kishida described the USD 14.1 billion acquisition as an 'investment' in the United States.

"We hope these discussions will unfold in directions that would be positive for both sides," Kishida said. However, he did not directly address whether the two leaders discussed the acquisition during a private meeting held earlier in the day.

Biden, who previously said it was 'vital' that the company remain American-owned and operated, said during the press conference--the first he's held in 2024--that he stands by "my commitment to American workers".

The meeting between Biden and Kishida will be followed later this week by the first-ever leaders' summit between the US, Japan and the Philippines with Biden working to draw Pacific allies and partners closer as the region grapples with China's aggression and nuclear provocations from North Korea.

Kishida said during the news conference that Japan will continue to call on China to "fulfil its responsibilities as a major power", while also striving to establish a 'constructive and stable' relationship with the superpower.

"We confirmed that unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force or coercion is absolutely unacceptable wherever it may be," he added.

All of the deliverables on the agenda are part of a concerted military, diplomatic and strategic effort to try and 'flip the script' and counter Chinese efforts to isolate American allies such as the Philippines and Japan, according to the senior administration official.

"The idea of switching to a multilateral, lattice-like strategic architecture is to flip the script and isolate China," the official added.

Further, according to CNN, Japan has been at the centre of Biden's alliance building in the Indo-Pacific, as officials have seen a willing partner in Kishida, who has significantly shifted the country's defence posture in recent years and provided ongoing support to Ukraine amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Kishida has committed to increasing defence spending by 2 per cent of GDP by 2037 and acquired American Tomahawk missiles to increase its counterstrike capabilities.

Before entering the White House, the president and national security adviser Jake Sullivan tasked the transition team to tap into alliances and partnerships where they saw "extraordinary potential if only the United States turned back to it and reembraced it", another senior administration official said.

"What we did was put together a strategy that was designed to help a wide range of allies and partners see pieces of themselves and their own objectives in our Indo-Pacific strategy," the official said.

This report is auto-generated from a syndicated feed

Saturday, November 18, 2023

Why Sino-Pak Naval Exercise In Northern Arabian Sea Is A Concern For New Delhi


The general region where the week-long exercise (11-17 November) takes place has witnessed past naval battles between India and Pakistan

by N Sathiya Moorthy

The near-simultaneous naval exercises between China and Pakistan in the northern Arabian Sea and those involving Russia and Myanmar off the Andamans carry a message for India. True, Russia and Myanmar are not unfriendly towards India just now, but the other two are. However, in times of geo-strategic, geo-political crises of the kind the US-initiated Indo-Pacific, Quad and AUKUS predicate, New Delhi could be staring at probabilities that it had not counted as possibilities in the past.

News reports speak about the Government of India maintaining whatever close watch is possible on the Sino-Pakistan exercise. The general region where the week-long exercise (11-17 November) takes place has witnessed past naval battles between India and Pakistan. The last one was the ‘Bangladesh War’ (1971), which was also the last full-fledged war between the two nations. The ‘Kargil War’ in 1999 was limited to the Himalayan heights and did not transcend to become a full-fledged war. Nor did it involve the navies of the two countries.

In the case of the India-China imbroglio, their navies were not involved in the past. That includes the 1962 war, in which India lost territory and pride, not necessarily in that order. Later-day military engagements, including the Galwan episode in June 2020, did not blow out into a full-fledged war, either. Hence, the navy and even their air force were not involved.

Externalising Internal Troubles

This raises the question of why Sino-Pakistan exercises now, how, and where. In the normal course, the belief was that reeling under an unprecedented economic crisis, Pakistan would not do anything as adventurous as engaging with the Chinese adversary of its invisible American underwriter in the IMF, which seems to be the country’s sole hope for recovery. Even such a recovery is going to take years, if not decades.

It is tempting to compare India’s economic recovery of the early nineties with those that neighbours like Pakistan and Sri Lanka hope for. The major difference is that India was strapped for cash at the time but was not lagging behind for other resources, including human resources. The socialist model had provided a strong techno-economic base. Natural resources, like minerals, were abundant. By breathing fresh air into policy-making, the country could transform itself almost overnight into what it is today: the world’s fifth-largest economy, racing to become the third before the decade ends.

Pakistan cannot boast of such fundamentals. The nation spent its formative years and decades externalising its internal troubles, real and imaginary. When India was going through phases of nation-building in social and economic terms, by focusing nation-building near-exclusively on ‘Kashmir-centric’ India-baiting and wars, Pakistan lost the energy and initiative it too had inherited at Independence and Partition. There is, of course, a lesson in it for India, too: never ever rationalise nation-building through foreign and security policies that also deviate from the realities on the ground, nearer home.

De-Hyphenated Relation

Today, post-9/11, post-Afghanistan, the US has been moving increasingly away from Pakistan in the past couple of decades. It is now doubtful if Washington exercises the same quantum of goodwill or pressure on Islamabad as it used to. Definitely, the reverse is not happening. Gone are the days when the US, and hence much of the rest of the West, did not take India’s accusations about Pakistan developing a nuclear bomb seriously. India’s Pokhran-II tests exposed the West for what they were worth, as it was followed by Pakistan testing its undeclared nuclear capability and weapons capability all at once at Chagai, only weeks after Pokhran-II, in 1998.

Today, the US has strong relations with India, much more than it was with Pakistan any time during the hay days of relations, dating back to the fifties, so to say. In contrast, Pakistan has become a ‘pariah state’ for the American policymaker, especially on matters of cross-border terrorism against India, another area where Washington has pretended to be blind to Indian concerns and evidence in the past.

This one is not about the India-Pakistan-US triangle. Instead, it is about how a Pakistan estranged from the US and also feels used since the days of the erstwhile Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and even earlier could act or react in the present-day circumstances. China and Pakistan have a strong multi-layered relationship going all along, and in the Pakistan-American estrangement, Beijing seems to be staring at a geo-strategic opportunity.

For one thing, India’s north-western region is the happening place in geo-strategic terms, maybe more than the South-East Asian waters, as often believed. The unresolved US-Iran crisis, coupled with the Ukraine War, and now the turmoil in the Gulf may have made the northern Arabian Sea more volatile than understood or acknowledged. No one is predicting anything just now along the Gulf-Arab coastline than at present, but as nations, China and Pakistan are literally testing the waters and seemingly preparing themselves for any eventuality, over which they have to be cautious first and then try and exploit in geo-strategic and geo-political terms.

Beginning Or The End?

The deep-sea port of Gwadar on the Arabian Sea is in Pakistan but is in the possession of China, just as Hambantota in Sri Lanka. On record, that is the end or beginning point (whichever way you look at it) of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The details of the Gwadar Port agreement, or that on CPEC, are not known to the outside world. It is hence unknown if Pakistan has given China the right to defend their business interests militarily if external elements were to disturb trade through Gwadar Port. Can and will China and Pakistan together launch military operations to ‘protect’ their bilateral trade and maritime routes, as if to ‘enforce at sea’, as the rest of the world is telling Beijing to do in the South China Sea, on the other wing of India?

For India, the US’ de-hyphenation of Pakistan from its India relations may have consequences, especially after Washington refused to step in to save that nation from the economic abyss that it is finding itself in over the past several months. India has nothing to fear from such delinking in terms of security and defence of the nation, as has been proven in the three major wars it has fought with Pakistan since 1948 and the smaller one in Kargil in 1999.

Even without it, India is well-secured from Chinese naval forays in the south of the nation. Yes, China is present at Hambantota. It has many more projects running in Sri Lanka. Its so-called research vessels are visiting Sri Lanka now and again. After one each last year and this, a third one is expected early next year. It remains to be seen if, like on the past two ‘voyages’, the government of President Ranil Wickremesinghe pulls a fast one on the Indian neighbour (which has legit security concerns) and also on the US having geo-strategic dominance across the world—or is perceived to be so, as yet.

Yet, India is relatively secure in those parts. The Indian Navy has been doing a credible and creditable job of manning the ocean. Then, you have the US military base in Diego Garcia and the French Reunion Island, apart from India’s own tri-services command jutting out on the Andamans and a near-similar establishment on the Lakshadweep islands. Then there are the other two Quad nations, namely, Australia and Japan. In a way, an India-adversarial naval vessel, including a carrier group, with declared or even suspected war intentions may feel entrapped in these waters.

Credible, Creditable

The same cannot be said of the northern Arabian Sea off Pakistan’s coast, at least until proved otherwise. It could be more so if China were to enter the scene directly in these waters alongside Pakistan or provide the so-called logistics and technical support to the Pakistan Navy from behind, from being on-hand at Gwadar, which could have consequences. It may not mean that the Indian Navy cannot cope, surmount, and show up its superiority one more time, but it could be more prolonged than imagined from past experience.

Of course, there is also Pakistan’s own nuclear bomb and attendant threats, which Pervez Musharraf flagged during the Kargil War. On the occasion, he declared that he would not hesitate to employ ‘tactical nuclear weapons’ if the Indian troops crossed into Pakistani territory—on the ground, of course. At that time, the US had greater command over Pakistan than possibly at present. China now may have that kind of hold over Pakistan and may be as serious as the US and the rest of the world in telling Islamabad not to press the nuclear button—and also succeed in convincing the other.

The writer is a Chennai-based policy analyst and political commentator


Tuesday, October 3, 2023

UK Companies To Design, Manufacture AUKUS Nuclear Submarines


London: The United Kingdom has awarded three UK companies a 4 billion pound ( USD 4.9 billion) contract to design and manufacture a nuclear-powered attack submarine as part of the country’s AUKUS programme with Australia and the United States, Al Jazeera reported.

The first of the submarines will be delivered into service in the UK in the late 2030s and the first Australian ones will follow in the early 2040s.

The SSN-AUKUS program aims to enhance the capabilities of the UK, Australia, and the US to counter regional security challenges, particularly from China in the Asia-Pacific region, Al Jazeera reported.

UK’s Defence Ministry in a statement on Sunday said that the contract with BAE Systems, Rolls-Royce and Babcock “represents a significant milestone for both the UK and the trilateral AUKUS programme as a whole”.

It said that the new submarines, known as SSN-AUKUS, “will be the largest, most advanced and most powerful attack submarines ever operated” by the Royal Navy and will “combine world-leading sensors, design and weaponry in one vessel”.

The plans for SSN-AUKUS were unveiled in March by the leaders of Australia, the UK and the US and came as the three countries ramped up their efforts to counter China in the Asia Pacific region.

The nuclear-powered vessels – which have far greater stealth and range and mark the first time Washington has shared nuclear-propulsion technology with a country other than the UK – represent a significant upgrade to Australia’s current diesel-powered fleet, as per Al Jazeera.

Previously, Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles described the AUKUS deal as “the biggest step forward in our military capability that we’ve had since the end of World War II”.

Through the AUKUS, Washington intends to sell Canberra up to five of its Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines in the early 2030s.

It will also see US and UK submarines deployed in Western Australia as soon as 2027 to help train Australian crews.

Analysts say the AUKUS programme will strengthen deterrence in the face of China’s increasingly assertive actions in the Pacific, including in the South China Sea where it has built military bases on disputed outcrops and reefs.

A senior fellow for Indo-Pacific security at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank, Ashley Townshend, wrote: “As highly stealthy platforms, SSNs’ ability to operate in contested waters, hunt Chinese warships and submarines, control strategic sea lanes and chokepoints, and project power with long-range cruise missiles make them one of the most effective ways to complicate Chinese military planning and give Beijing a reason to take pause before using force.”

“The fact that US, UK, and, in time, Australian SSNs will be operating as a combined force—with Aussies also embedded on American and British subs—raises the spectre of horizontal escalation by forcing Beijing to consider the prospect that military action against any SSN, or the submarine base itself, could trigger the involvement of all three nations,” he added.


Tuesday, September 26, 2023

Hope Floats For Augmentation of Navy’s Underwater Assets


As per the Horizon 2047 document, India and France agreed to ‘explore more ambitious projects to develop the Indian submarine fleet and its performance’. Boost: India has added maritime competence to its land and air-based capacity for delivering strategic weapons

by Rahul Bedi

The prospects of France assisting India in developing and constructing six nuclear-powered general-purpose attack submarines or SSNs for the Indian Navy (IN) are believed to have brightened following a meeting between PM Narendra Modi and President Emmanuel Macron in New Delhi on the sidelines of the recently concluded G20 summit reported Tribune India.

Discussions between the two leaders — who were meeting for the second time in two months following Modi’s July visit to Paris as the chief guest at France’s Bastille Day parade — were centred on the “joint development, manufacture and testing of advanced military platforms and technologies”, said officials in Delhi. French assistance for the IN’s continuingly deferred SSN program has long been on the anvil, with hush-hush discussions over it at an advanced stage.

Earlier, the joint Horizon 2047 document agreed upon during Modi’s Paris visit to mark 25 years of the bilateral strategic partnership between Delhi and Paris referred to both sides agreeing to “explore more ambitious projects to develop the Indian submarine fleet and its performance”. Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Limited in Mumbai had already licence-built six Kalvari (Scorpene)-class conventional diesel-electric ‘killer-hunter’ submarines under transfer of technology from France’s Naval Group, and is poised to begin constructing three more to further boost collaboration in more advanced underwater platform production.

India had approached France for assistance with its then putative and floundering nuclear-powered missile submarine (SSBN) program after Paris had robustly backed New Delhi’s 1998 ‘Shakti’ nuclear tests. And though this support, when India was globally isolated and under US-led sanctions, had led to the two inking the bilateral strategic partnership, France had declined to be involved in India’s SSBN program as, at the time, such assistance contravened prevailing global nuclear protocols. This negation had left India no choice but to turn to Russia as a default option, but senior industry officials conceded that the impending SSN project in the overall transformed security environment presented Paris and Delhi yet another collaborative opportunity to be exploited productively.

SSNs are employed for sundry missions such as anti-submarine and anti-surface warfare, while SSBNs perform specialised strategic nuclear deterrence missions. The latter’s principal operational objectives are to safeguard a nuclear force’s second-strike capability by offering a safe and undetected location from where missiles can be launched when required.

Earlier this year, France reportedly offered to jointly develop SSNs with India, under the aegis of Delhi’s Atmanirbharta initiative designed to enhance self-sufficiency in materiel requirements, by transferring technology based on its Barracuda-class SSNs, the first of which — Suffren — was commissioned into the French Navy in mid-2022. Designed by the Naval Group, the 4.765-tonne and 99m-long Suffren was the first of the six SSNs scheduled to join France’s Marine Nationale by 2030 at an estimated cost of over $2 billion each.

France was eager to clinch this prospective SSN deal with India to compensate for Australia summarily scrapping in late 2021 the multi-million-dollar deal with the Naval Group to supply the Royal Australian Navy 12 conventional submarines, for which the latter paid $585 million as compensation. Instead, Australia entered into a $268-368-billion deal with the US and the UK for eight SSNs between now and around 2050 under the AUKUS strategic pact.

The IN, for its part, is keen on partnering the Naval Group for its SSN needs as the technology it offered is more advanced compared to that of Russia, the only P5 country amenable to such sensitive cooperation with India. Industry officials and analysts are of the view that French involvement in India’s SSN program would, in all likelihood, be ‘endorsed’ by the US, whose strategic, defence and military technology ties with India are proliferating in a bid to challenge Chinese hegemony in the strategic Indian Ocean Region.

The IN’s SSN project, worth an estimated Rs 60,000 crore, was approved by the Ministry of Defence in early 2015, with the first of the 6,000-tons boats scheduled for completion by 2032-33. These platforms comprised part of the Navy’s revised 30-year Project for the Series Construction of Submarines (till 2030) that envisaged the induction of 24 submarines, including six SSNs. These SSNs would supplement and operationally support the four or five 6,000-7,000-tons Arihant-class SSBNs built with Russian knowhow and technical assistance, particularly with regard to miniaturising their 82.5MW pressurised light water reactors.

Meanwhile, India’s SSBN program, undertaken jointly by the Defence Research and Development Organisation, the Department of Atomic Energy and the IN, is proceeding apace at the secretive Ship Building Centre (SCB) in Visakhapatnam. The third such platform — simply designated as S4 — was launched in late 2021 after INS Arighat, the second SSBN, was undergoing further fitment. These SSBNs comprise a vital component of India’s nuclear triad, aimed at sustaining its nuclear deterrence and no-first-use posture.

INS Arihant, the lead SSBN boat, was constructed at the SCB, drawing upon design elements of Soviet-era and Russian submarines from the Project 670A Skat-series (‘Charlie I’) and Project 667 (‘Delta I’) to the more recent Project 885 Yasen-class nuclear-powered cruise missile submarines (SSGNs). It was launched in July 2009; four years later, its on-board nuclear reactor attained criticality, enabling sea trials to begin in 2014 and weapon tests before its unannounced and low-key commissioning in August 2016. Two years later, Arihant completed its first deterrence patrol, confirming India’s three-tier retaliatory nuclear deterrent capability by adding maritime strike competence to its existing land and air-based capacity for delivering strategic weapons.

The IN, however, which acknowledged the SSBN program’s existence only in December 2007, continues to claim that the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) had ‘exclusive’ management of the confidential program. Funding for it was also confidential, supervised by the PMO via the National Security Adviser, it claimed. But having taken ownership of the SSN program, it now behoves the Navy to imminently kickstart the project and stall the severe drawdown in its underwater assets.


Tuesday, September 5, 2023

China Agitates Neighbours As It Maps Out Territorial Claims


Hong Kong: On August 28, China’s Ministry of Natural Resources published a “standard map” of China, which amounted to a unilateral assertion of whatever territory it wants to claim. Beijing said the new version was introduced to “eliminate problem maps”, but China has succeeded only in upsetting numerous neighbours.

So far, five ASEAN countries have issued public statements denouncing China’s creative cartography. In the following order, Malaysia, the Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam and Brunei have complained. These five Southeast Asian states are all in dispute over China’s excessive territorial claims in the South China Sea.

Interestingly, China’s controversial – and legally baseless – Nine-Dash Line that is vaguely emblazoned on maps over the South China Sea is now a thing of the past. Instead, it has grown into ten dashes! The Natuna Islands of Indonesia appear within the dashed line, for example, while the new tenth dash runs to the east of Taiwan, supposedly cementing the democratic nation as “belonging” to China. One might even interpret that Chinese claims extend up to and including part of Japan’s Ryuku Islands.

Manila angrily retorted, “The Philippines rejects the 2023 version of China’s standard map … This latest attempt to legitimize China’s purported sovereignty and jurisdiction over Philippine features and maritime zones has no basis under international law, particularly the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).”

Likewise, Taiwan Foreign Ministry spokesman Jeff Liu said, “No matter how the Chinese government twists its position on Taiwan’s sovereignty, it cannot change the objective fact of our country’s existence.” The Permanent Court of Arbitration ruled in 2016 that China’s ambiguous Nine-Dash Line is inconsistent with international law. This new map thus represents a slap in the face for the international community; the Hague had already decreed the Nine-Dash Line was meaningless, but it has brashly taken it a step further by adding an extra dash.

More than that, China seems to be claiming the new dashes as its legitimate “international border”.

This is hegemonic behaviour in the extreme. It stands in stark contradiction to Chairman Xi Jinping’s claim last week at the BRICS Summit in Johannesburg that “hegemonism is not in China’s DNA”. This is yet further evidence that the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) and Xi’s words are utterly devoid of integrity, if not bald-faced lies. Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu told the world at June’s Shangri-La Dialogue, “Mind your own business”, when quizzed as to why China’s military engages in unprofessional behaviour when other nations’ militaries pass by in international waters.

The release of this map smacks of the same hubris – “Mind your own business. We don’t need to consult you. We can do whatever we want. We claim what we wish.” The decision to publish the map further asserts and advances Chinese sovereignty, and significantly it came shortly before the ASEAN Summit in Jakarta from 5-7 September, and the G20 Leaders’ Summit in Delhi from 9-10 September. China is busily stirring the pot, keeping the issue of territorial claims on the boil. This is China’s modus operandi, as it pushes its own agenda in the full knowledge that it will naturally upset others. It just does not care, since each time it acts like this it is marking a new and more advanced line in the sand to lodge outrageous claims.

Such tactics are part of Xi’s irredentist view of regaining lost territories, rejuvenating the nation and restoring the Chinese empire to its former glory. Except, the thing is, China has never owned these areas. It is hegemony and bullying, pure and simple. Southeast Asia was not the only victim of the 2023 standard map. It also shows Arunachal Pradesh and the Doklam Plateau as wholly Chinese territory, as well as Aksai Chin, which China controls but India lays claims to. The two sides have feuded over Eastern Ladakh and the Doklam Plateau in recent years, so this is particularly insulting to India, as thousands of soldiers on both sides face off along the mountainous border.

Delhi lodged a protest to Beijing, and Indian External Affairs Minister Subramanyam Jaishankar noted, “Making absurd claims on India’s territory does not make it China’s territory.” This map also mocks Xi’s and Modi’s recent meeting at the BRICS Summit, where they agreed to de-escalate tensions along the disputed border.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry could only mouth empty rhetoric that it has no intention of upholding: “The two sides should bear in mind the overall interests of their bilateral relations and handle properly the border issue so as to jointly safeguard peace and tranquility in the border region.”

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said the map was “a routine practice in China’s exercise of sovereignty in accordance with the law”. With his CCP blinkers on, he crowed, “We hope relevant sides can stay objective and calm, and refrain from over-interpreting the issue.” In other words, this map reflects our sovereign territory, it is legal and you should just shut up and accept it. Unfortunately, this high-handed manner and bullying are increasingly China’s only lingua fracas.

Also of great interest was China’s cartographic “conquest” of Bolshoy Ussuriysky Island on the Amur River. Sino-Russian territorial disputes date back to the 1860s, though they were seemingly resolved via a 2008 treaty when the western half of this island was given to China. However, as early as 2016, Chinese maps were claiming the whole island, something reinforced in the 2023 map. Russia has not responded to China’s map. Nor is it likely too, for Putin is not in a position to make demands – he is embroiled in a grinding war and needs Beijing’s support. Yet it shows that no relationship is sacred for China. It is willing to make demands on anybody, even upon its closest partners, because nothing trumps Chinese preeminence.

One might be tempted to ask, “Who cares if China fudges a few borders here and there on its internal maps?” But it matters a great deal. Such maps form legal documents, and they are promulgated by government departments and taught in schools, universities and institutions all across China. The users will come to believe this is all Chinese territory, even though there is no legal basis for it.

It amounts to brainwashing the next generation of Chinese society, and it acts as a precedent. They might only be lines drawn on a map now, but those who believe in their infallibility might be tempted to fight for them in the future. This is a very real danger, for China, which likes to make legal cases and fait accompli on the ground-as it did with its militarized reefs in the South China Sea – will push the boundaries again and again. It will not be satisfied with an extra slice of territory from India, Russia or ASEAN here or there, but will continue in the same vein, pushing, cajoling, threatening and stealing.

This is the real danger of such disingenuous and dishonest behaviour, and it has happened before. Nazi Germany, for example, used maps in its propaganda in the 1930s to solidify claims and create consensus about its national territory. It is perhaps no coincidence that some compare China’s territorial ambitions under Xi with what happened in Nazi Germany. Former Australian Defence Minister Peter Dutton, for example, likened China’s current trajectory to Germany’s path in the 1930s. “We have to stand up with countries to stare down any act of aggression to make sure that we can keep peace in our region and for our country.”

Dutton added, “We’re in a period very similar to the 1930s. And I think there are a lot of people in the 1930s that wish they would have spoken up much earlier in the decade than they had to at the end of the decade. I think that’s the sobering reality of where we are; it’s the sobering reality of the intelligence that we receive.”

Former Philippine President Benigno Aquino has also alluded to Nazi Germany in relation to Chinese actions in the South China Sea. He said in 2015, “I’m an amateur student of history and I’m reminded of… how Germany was testing the waters and what the response was by various other European powers.” The similarities between the two are more than superficial, for the same territorial ambitions, ideology of national rights and alleged grievances afflict both nations. In March 1938, Germany annexed Austria under the Anschluss, a word that means “connection” or “joining”. In doing so, Germany directly violated the Treaty of Versailles forbade unification of Austria and Germany, and it showed Hitler’s disdain for the European order.

Europe’s acceptance represented appeasement, and Hitler was emboldened to continue his expansionist policy. Decrying illegitimate strictures, Hitler had the twin aims of uniting Germans within a Nazi empire and acquiring living space in the east. Hitler’s words echo those of Xi towards Taiwan: “…The reunification is a life task to be carried out by all means! German-Austria must be restored to the great German Motherland … People of the same blood should be in the same Reich.”

On 13 March 1938, Austria submitted to the Reunification of Austria with Germany law. Yet this was a complete misnomer, for Austria had never been part of the German empire. However, it did lend an air of legality, which is precisely what China is trying to do with its current map. Austria was thenceforth a German province, and the Nazis set about eradicating traces of a separate Austrian identity. The Nazis lauded it as fulfilment of Germany’s destiny, and the event was glorified in propaganda.

The Anschluss was a watershed moment in Hitler’s territorial aggression; there was no international intervention, only appeasement. Six months later, Germany manufactured a crisis in the Sudetenland, and Europe agreed to cede this region of Czechoslovakia to Germany. Soon to come was Hitler’s invasion of the rest of Czechoslovakia and eventually of Poland, which started World War II in 1939. The same arguments and twisted logic are very evident in Xi’s and the CCP’s dealings with Taiwan and the rest of the world. The Nazis blamed Jews for all ills, while the West – particularly the USA – is Beijing’s convenient whipping boy.

For instance, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said in a speech on 2 September that the Ukrainian crisis must never be repeated in Asia, and regional security should be promoted through dialogue and cooperation. “[We] should disclose the backstage manipulator who aims to serve its own geopolitical needs and has been attempting to stir up troubles undermining the peace in the South China Sea issue for many years.”

Yet China refuses to acknowledge the truth, that it is the primary cause of tensions. It unilaterally established military bases on reclaimed islands in the South China Sea, enforced fishing moratoriums on all, deliberately collided with foreign fishing boats, acts imperiously in others’ EEZs, and threatened foreign aircraft and warships in international airspace and waterways. Certainly, maintaining the status quo will only exacerbate problems for neighbors as China throws its weight around.

The CCP’s one-eyed approach, where it is righteous and others are the cause of all evil, is only worsening the situation. Beijing willfully refuses to recognize that it has singlehandedly raised up coalitions and groupings against itself, examples being AUKUS, the Quad and US-Japan-South Korea trilateral cooperation. Relations with Australia, India, Japan, the Philippines, the USA and Western Europe are plummeting. The same attitude of blaming others and egging on paranoia at home is seen in a new Counter-Espionage Law that came into effect on 1 July 2023.

The old 2014 law had 40 clauses but the latest one has increased to 71, adding vague references to

“espionage activities” and “national security and interests”. It takes a holistic view of national security, and Xi has begun to securitize every aspect of life. The government is pushing counterespionage propaganda and urging the public to beware of foreign spies lurking around every corner and under every bed. Xi is increasingly doing what is good only for him and the CCP, and not what benefits the populace. Denny Roy of the Lowy Institute in Australia observed, “President Xi Jinping’s rule has clearly been a boon to the CCP. Recent developments, however, call into question whether Xi is capable, or will ever be capable, of ensuring it is good for Chinese citizens as well.”

Roy concluded, “Xi’s enduring tenure forces China’s political elites to confront an uncomfortable truth: the divergence between what is good for the party and what is good for the country seems to be widening.”


Monday, August 21, 2023

China To Build 21 Nuclear Submarines By 2030: Australian Media


Canberra: Senior Labour ministers are demanding the urgent delivery of the AUKUS submarines to shore up Australia's defences amid rising tensions between China and the US.

China is expected to have built 21 of its nuclear submarines and 200 major warships by 2030.

Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy is calling for the construction of new defence technologies to be expedited to help deter war in the Indo-Pacific.


Sunday, August 20, 2023

China Deploys Swarm of Satellites To Monitor Malabar Exercises.


Three Chinese geostationary orbit satellites manoeuvred into position over northern Australia to monitor July's "Talisman Sabre" war games

Hundreds of smaller satellites are surveilling "Exercise Malabar", which involves warships from the US, India and Japan.

Experts say Beijing has extraordinary capability to gather intelligence on Australian military operations.

Commercial space data obtained by the ABC details the full scale of Beijing's surveillance on the recently completed "Exercise Talisman Sabre", as well as the "Exercise Malabar" naval drills now being held off Sydney.

In July, Canberra-based defence company EOS Space Systems tracked three Chinese geostationary orbit satellites manoeuvring into position below the equator to monitor the Talisman Sabre war games across northern Australia.

China's Shiyan 12-01 satellite was detected drifting westerly over the northern Australia region, while the Shijian-17 and Shijian-23 satellites were tracked drifting easterly to observe multiple areas where exercises were being conducted.

Since Exercise Malabar began on August 10, hundreds of much smaller low-orbit satellites (LEOs) have also been tracked completing thousands of flights at much lower altitudes over the Australian continent, focusing on the activity of warships around Sydney Harbour.

"We've been collecting optical surveillance data on Earth observing Chinese satellites during the Talisman Sabre and Malabar exercises and what that's showing is quite a lot of activity surveying the ground during those events," James Bennett from EOS Space Systems said.

"We've seen over 300 satellites surveying ground-based activities and the number of overflights is over 3,000 since the start of the Malabar exercise centred around the Sydney Harbour bay area," Dr Bennett added.

Exercise Malabar involves joint naval exercises between Australia and warships from the United States, India and Japan.

Space is considered an increasingly important domain for modern war-fighting operations across the globe, with Australia's recent Defence Strategic Review categorising it as a key element of a more integrated force.

The data on China's recent space activity was collected using telescopes stationed outside Canberra and at Learmonth in Western Australia, which was then analysed by EOS staff to precisely identify the satellites and their flight paths.

Dr Bennett said the large number of geostationary and low-orbit Chinese satellites currently above Australia is providing Beijing with extremely detailed and "persistent observation" of what is occurring on the mainland and offshore.

"They can glean military intelligence on what the capabilities and equipment are, as well as processes of ground military activities; they can use this to drive a fair bit of intelligence on military operations in Australia."

The Defence Department has declined to give details on how it was monitoring and mitigating any risks posed by the substantial Chinese satellite activity over Australia during what it describes as "well-publicised, complex war-fighting exercises".

"The ADF takes prudent measures to safeguard the information security of Australian and participating forces," a defence spokesperson told the ABC.

"Defence tracks satellite movements as part of broader space domain awareness efforts."

James Brown, the chief executive of the Space Industry Association of Australia, said the numbers of Chinese satellites dedicated to tracking the military exercises is in line with Beijing's growing presence in space.

"We've seen an extraordinary amount of Chinese intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance satellites being launched in recent years and Australia is a target for all that activity; space is becoming a critical domain for any future conflict and any potential conflict," he said.

"They have hundreds of military and intelligence satellites which are not only collecting on Australia and its allies but in some cases dazzling Australian and allied satellites and manoeuvring closely to other satellites.

"Australia by contrast doesn't own any military satellites and certainly doesn't have any capability to collect the sort of imagery that China's been collecting over Sydney Harbour this week."

In June, Labor announced it would scrap a Morrison government program to develop new Australian satellites to gather data on natural disasters, agriculture and marine surveillance, as it searches for budget savings.

"The irony being that whilst China has had 300 satellites focused on collecting observation data Australia this week, our own government just cut the program that would've given us our first four able to do the same thing," Mr Brown said.