Armenia Set To Acquire Over 50 Indian Pralay Missiles After Advanced Negotiations

Armenia is now set to clear the acquisition of more than fifty Pralay tactical surface-to-surface missiles from India, with advanced cost negotiations underway.

This marks one of India’s most significant missile export breakthroughs and represents a major expansion of bilateral defence ties into the strategic strike domain.

Armenia’s defence ministry is engaged in detailed negotiations with India over the Pralay missile system, developed by the Defence Research and Development Organisation.

The Pralay is a solid-fuelled, cannisterised, road-mobile missile designed for rapid deployment and precision strikes.

Its domestic variant has a range of 150–500 kilometres, but the export version is capped at around 290 kilometres to comply with Missile Technology Control Regime thresholds.

Despite this limitation, the missile retains high accuracy with a circular error probable of less than ten metres, speeds exceeding Mach 6, and advanced manoeuvrability to evade modern air defence systems.

The missile can carry warheads between 350 and 1,000 kilograms, including high explosive fragmentation, penetration-cum-blast, and runway denial submunitions. This versatility allows it to target command centres, radar installations, and airfields.

Armenia’s interest in Pralay stems from its need to counter Azerbaijan’s Israeli-origin LORA ballistic missiles, which have given Baku a significant edge in recent conflicts. By acquiring Pralay, Armenia would gain a credible deterrent capable of precision strikes deep into adversary territory, thereby altering the regional balance of power.

Reports indicate that Armenia is considering an initial acquisition of more than fifty Pralay missiles. This would provide Yerevan with a substantial strike capability, moving beyond its existing artillery and air defence systems into the strategic missile domain.

The missile’s quasi-ballistic trajectory and manoeuvrability make it difficult to intercept, enhancing its survivability against layered air defence networks. Armenia is also expected to send technical and military teams to India for familiarisation, training, and possible system demonstrations.

India’s export strategy includes modifications such as the capped range and a twin-launcher configuration, allowing two missiles to be deployed in quick succession from a single transporter-erector-launcher.

This feature increases operational flexibility and firepower, making the system more attractive to export customers. For Armenia, such capabilities would provide rapid response options in high-intensity battlefield scenarios, strengthening its layered defence and strike architecture.

The negotiations are significant for India’s defence export ambitions. Armenia has already procured frontline Indian systems such as Pinaka multi-barrel rocket launchers, Akash surface-to-air missiles, Swathi weapon locating radars, and anti-drone platforms, with contracts exceeding 1.5 billion dollars. 

The addition of Pralay would elevate the partnership into the strategic strike domain, showcasing India’s indigenous missile technology on the global stage and reinforcing its role as a serious defence supplier in sensitive regions.

If finalised, the Pralay deal would not only bolster Armenia’s deterrence posture but also demonstrate India’s ability to deliver advanced, MTCR-compliant missile systems to international partners.

It would mark a milestone in India’s defence diplomacy, expanding its footprint in Eurasia and signalling its emergence as a credible exporter of high-end missile technology.

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Armenia In Advanced Talks To Acquire India’s Indigenous Pralay Missile System

Armenia is in advanced cost negotiations with India for the acquisition of the indigenous Pralay ('Apocalypse' in English) cannisterised surface-to-surface, short-range, tactical ballistic missile, a move that would significantly expand bilateral defence ties and mark one of India’s most high-end missile export breakthroughs.

The export variant is capped at 290 km to comply with MTCR guidelines, but retains precision strike capability and advanced manoeuvrability.

India and Armenia are engaged in detailed discussions over the Pralay tactical surface-to-surface missile system, with negotiations focusing on cost, specifications, and compliance with international export control frameworks.

The talks are part of Armenia’s broader military-industrial modernisation, as Yerevan seeks to strengthen deterrence against Azerbaijan’s long-range precision strike capabilities, including Israeli-origin LORA missiles.

The acquisition of Pralay would represent a major leap in Armenia’s strike domain, moving beyond artillery and air defence into strategic missile capability.

The Pralay missile, developed by India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), is a solid-fuelled, cannisterised, road-mobile system designed for rapid deployment. It has an operational range of 150–500 km in its domestic variant, but the export version is capped at 290 km to comply with Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) thresholds.

Despite this limitation, the missile retains high precision with a circular error probable of less than 10 metres, speeds exceeding Mach 6, and the ability to perform terminal manoeuvres to evade modern air defence systems.

It can carry warheads between 350–1,000 kg, including high explosive fragmentation, penetration-cum-blast, and runway denial submunitions, making it versatile for targeting command centres, radar installations, and airfields.

Armenia’s interest in Pralay stems from its need to counter Azerbaijan’s Israeli-backed air defence and missile systems, which have given Baku a qualitative edge in recent conflicts.

By acquiring Pralay, Armenia would gain a credible deterrent capable of precision strikes deep into adversary territory, thereby altering the regional balance of power. The missile’s quasi-ballistic trajectory and manoeuvrability make it difficult to intercept, enhancing its survivability against layered air defence networks.

India’s export strategy includes modifications such as the capped range and the development of a twin-launcher configuration, allowing two missiles to be deployed in quick succession from a single transporter-erector-launcher.

This feature increases operational flexibility and firepower, making the system more attractive to export customers. For Armenia, such capabilities would provide rapid response options in high-intensity battlefield scenarios, strengthening its layered defence and strike architecture.

The negotiations are also significant for India’s defence export ambitions. Armenia has already procured frontline Indian systems such as Pinaka rocket launchers, Akash surface-to-air missiles, Swathi weapon locating radars, and anti-drone platforms, with contracts exceeding $1.5 billion.

The addition of Pralay would elevate the partnership into the strategic strike domain, showcasing India’s indigenous missile technology on the global stage and reinforcing its role as a serious defence supplier in sensitive regions.

If finalised, the Pralay deal would not only bolster Armenia’s deterrence posture but also demonstrate India’s ability to deliver advanced, MTCR-compliant missile systems to international partners.

It would mark a milestone in India’s defence diplomacy, expanding its footprint in Eurasia and signalling its emergence as a credible exporter of high-end missile technology.

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Golden Horizon: Israel's Secret ALBM That Could Redefine India's Aerial Strike Doctrine

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's forthcoming visit to Israel on 25-26 February 2026 promises to elevate the already robust strategic partnership between New Delhi and Tel Aviv. Amid diplomatic engagements, including an address to the Knesset and bilateral talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, defence cooperation remains a cornerstone.

Reports indicate Israel may proffer its enigmatic Golden Horizon air-launched ballistic missile (ALBM), a system shrouded in secrecy that could profoundly augment India's air power.

This prospective offer emerges against a backdrop of intensified Indo-Israeli defence ties, forged through decades of collaboration on systems like the Barak-8 missiles and Spice bomb kits.

Neither side has issued official confirmation, yet whispers in defence corridors suggest customisation for India's Su-30MKI fleet, signalling a potential leap in long-range precision strikes.

Golden Horizon belongs to the rarefied category of air-launched ballistic missiles, deployable from fighter jets rather than static ground platforms. Unlike prevalent air-launched cruise missiles (ALCMs), ALBMs trace a ballistic arc, ascending to near-space before plummeting at hypersonic velocities. 

Leaked US intelligence documents from October 2024, preceding Israel's strikes on Iran, first unveiled Golden Horizon alongside the Rocks missile, the latter linked to Rafael's Anchor test series.

Defence analysts peg Golden Horizon's range at 1,500-2,000 kilometres, dwarfing Israeli staples like Rampage or Air LORA, both limited to approximately 280 kilometres. Sebastien Roblin, a noted commentator, observed that this reach enables Israeli jets to target Tehran without breaching Iranian airspace, drastically mitigating pilot risk. Conservative estimates adjust the effective range to around 800 kilometres, factoring in payload and launch altitude from high-performance fighters.

Origins trace to Israel's Sparrow missile lineage, initially crafted as ballistic simulators for Arrow anti-missile trials. The Blue Sparrow variant boasts over 2,000 kilometres, while the Silver Sparrow—exceeding eight metres in length and three tons—underscores Israel's prowess in hefty, long-haul rocketry. Golden Horizon likely evolves this heritage, repurposed for offensive roles with enhanced guidance.

For India, acquisition could revolutionise the Indian Air Force's (IAF) deep-strike envelope. Integrated with the Su-30MKI, a mainstay backbone of over 260 aircraft, it would enable standoff attacks on high-value targets deep in adversarial territory, such as hardened bunkers in Pakistan or China. Current IAF assets like BrahMos (Mach 2.8, subsonic-supersonic cruise) pale in terminal velocity against Golden Horizon's Mach 5+ descent.

Ballistic profiles confer interception nightmares for adversaries. Steep trajectories from unpredictable aerial vectors evade ground-based radars tuned for flatter cruise paths. Uzi Rubin, ex-head of Israel's missile defence, noted that ALBMs "can come from any direction and make defence much harder." Federico Borsari of the Centre for European Policy Analysis echoed this, highlighting superior flexibility over ground-launched short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs), as jets reposition dynamically.

Golden Horizon's warhead reportedly targets deeply buried facilities—underground command posts, nuclear sites, or fortified depots—via kinetic energy from hypersonic re-entry. Post-release, it climbs to exo-atmospheric heights before a precision-guided plunge, blending inertial navigation, satellite uplinks, and possibly terminal seekers. Jeffrey Lewis remarked that accuracy drawbacks of early ALBMs have been "largely solved," rivalling cruise missile CEP (circular error probable) under 10 metres.

India's strategic calculus amplifies the appeal. Border standoffs with China in Ladakh and Pakistan's burgeoning missile arsenal underscore needs for rapid, penetrating strikes sans territorial ingress. 

Golden Horizon circumvents fixed launcher vulnerabilities, immune to pre-emptive raids, and leverages IAF's mobility for surprise. It complements indigenous efforts like the SFDR (Solid Fuel Ducted Ramjet) for future hypersonics, accelerating 'Atmanirbhar Bharat' in defence.

Only an elite cadre—Russia (Kh-47M2 Kinzhal), China (CH-ALBM variants), and Israel (Rampage evolutions)—wields operational ALBMs. India's entry would vault the IAF into this vanguard, shifting doctrine from subsonic BrahMos reliance toward hypersonic denial. Custom Su-30MKI integration, per reports, involves pylon adaptations and fire-control linkages, drawing on prior Indo-Israeli successes like Derby BVR missiles.

Technically, Golden Horizon demands robust airframe compatibility. Su-30MKI's 14-tonne weapons bay suits its estimated 1-2 ton mass, with thrust-vectoring for post-separation boost. Launch from 15-20 kilometre altitudes extends range via gravity assist, evading surface-to-air threats during boost phase. Israeli firms like IAI or Rafael, steeped in modular designs, could expedite tech transfer under government-to-government pacts.

Geopolitically, the offer dovetails Modi's 'multi-alignment' ethos, balancing QUAD ties with Middle East outreach. Israel, post-2024 Iran clashes, seeks diversified export markets amid US scrutiny on sensitive tech. For India, it fortifies deterrence without MTCR (Missile Technology Control Regime) breaches, as ALBMs skirt categorical bans. Precedents like the 2016 Phalcon AWACS deal affirm reliability.

Challenges persist. Integration timelines could span 3-5 years, necessitating flight trials at Indian ranges like Pokhran or Chitradurga. Cost—potentially $5-10 million per unit—strains budgets amid Gaganyaan and TEJAS MK-2 priorities. Export controls may redact propulsion secrets, mirroring Hermes 900 drone transfers.

Yet upsides dominate. Golden Horizon bridges India's hypersonic gap until HSTDV matures (projected 2028+). It enhances two-front credibility, pairing with S-400 for layered offence-defence. Operationally, squadrons at Ambala or Tezpur could prosecute strikes over Himalayas or Thar, unburdening Rafales for air superiority.

Modi's visit, his second since 2017's Hugs-and-Hardware summit, spotlights this evolution. Public reticence belies deepening bonds—India now Israel's top arms buyer, absorbing $2-3 billion annually in avionics, radars, and munitions. Golden Horizon embodies this quiet pivot: from off-the-shelf buys to co-developed game-changers.

As talks unfold, confirmation could herald a doctrinal inflection for Indian air power. In an era of peer competitors wielding J-20s and J-10CEs, such asymmetry proves invaluable. Golden Horizon is not merely a missile; it is a multiplier for India's strategic autonomy, poised to etch Modi's tenure in defence annals.

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India's Defence Exports Smash Record ₹23,622 Crores In FY25, Reach 80 Nations.

India's defence exports achieved a landmark milestone in the financial year 2024-25, surging to a record ₹23,622 crore, equivalent to approximately $2.76 billion.

This figure marks a substantial leap forward, underscoring the nation's accelerating momentum in the global arms market. The growth reflects a deliberate strategic pivot towards self-reliance, propelled by flagship initiatives such as Atmanirbhar Bharat and Make in India.

Reaching around 80 countries in FY 2024-25 alone, Indian defence products have carved out a robust international footprint, with historical exports spanning over 100 nations. This expansion highlights the diversification of markets and the appeal of indigenous offerings. Major buyers, including the United States, France, and Armenia, have emerged as key destinations, signalling trust in India's manufacturing prowess.

At the heart of this success lie flagship products like the BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles, Pinaka multi-barrel rocket launchers, and Dornier-228 maritime patrol aircraft. These systems exemplify India's technological edge, blending indigenous innovation with proven reliability. Exports of such high-profile items have not only boosted revenues but also enhanced diplomatic ties through defence cooperation.

The Atmanirbhar Bharat initiative, translating to Self-Reliant India, has been instrumental in fostering domestic production capabilities.

By prioritising local research and development, it has reduced dependency on imports, which once dominated India's defence procurement landscape. Coupled with Make in India, these policies have incentivised private sector participation and streamlined export procedures.

This surge in exports demonstrates India's evolving role from a traditional arms importer to a competitive exporter. Historically, the country relied heavily on foreign suppliers for critical military hardware. Today, indigenous firms such as Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), Bharat Dynamics Limited (BDL), and private players like Tata Advanced Systems are driving this transformation.

Key highlights include the sheer scale of the achievement: ₹23,622 crore in a single year surpasses previous records by a wide margin. The geographical reach to nearly 80 countries in FY25 alone points to aggressive marketing and compliance with international standards. Armenia, in particular, has become a standout partner, procuring Pinaka systems amid regional conflicts.

The United States and France, as top buyers, underscore the shift in global perceptions. The US has acquired Dornier aircraft for surveillance roles, while France has shown interest in collaborative projects. This diversification mitigates risks associated with over-reliance on any single market.

Looking ahead, the government has set an ambitious target of ₹50,000 crore in defence exports by 2029. Achieving this will require sustained investment in R&D, expansion of production lines, and navigation of geopolitical challenges. Initiatives like the Defence Corridors in Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu are poised to bolster manufacturing infrastructure.

The significance of this growth extends beyond economics. It positions India as a vital player in the global defence industry, capable of supplying advanced weaponry to allies. This enhances strategic autonomy, allowing New Delhi to pursue independent foreign policies without import vulnerabilities.

Moreover, the export boom fosters technological spillovers. Joint ventures and technology transfers with partners like Russia for BrahMos have matured into profitable exports. Armenia's acquisitions, for instance, include not just hardware but also training and maintenance packages, creating long-term revenue streams.

Challenges persist, however. Intellectual property concerns, competition from established exporters like the US and Israel, and fluctuating global demand pose hurdles. Yet, India's cost-competitive edge—offering high-quality systems at lower prices—provides a distinct advantage.

Regulatory reforms have played a crucial role. Simplified export licensing, eased FDI norms up to 74% in defence manufacturing, and dedicated export promotion councils have accelerated deals. The positive indigenisation lists, mandating local sourcing for hundreds of items, further reinforce this trajectory.

In the broader geopolitical context, these exports strengthen India's influence in regions like South Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. Supplies to friendly nations counterbalance adversarial powers and align with India's multi-alignment strategy. For example, BrahMos deals with the Philippines signal deeper Indo-Pacific partnerships.

Domestically, the growth stimulates job creation and skill development. Thousands of engineers and technicians now contribute to export-oriented production, aligning with national goals of employment generation. Public-private partnerships have multiplied, with firms like Larsen & Toubro and Kalyani Strategic Systems scaling up.

Sustainability remains a focus, with emphasis on green manufacturing and ethical export practices. Adherence to end-user certificates and MTCR guidelines ensures responsible trade. This builds credibility, attracting repeat business from discerning buyers.

The FY 2024-25 record encapsulates a decade of reforms bearing fruit. From humble beginnings of ammunition and small arms exports, India now ships sophisticated missiles and aircraft. The journey towards ₹50,000 crore by 2029 appears feasible, provided innovation and diplomacy keep pace.

This strategic shift not only bolsters the economy but also fortifies national security. As India ascends the global defence export ladder, it redefines its identity—from a developing market to a manufacturing powerhouse. The world is taking notice, and the momentum shows no signs of abating.

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India Accelerates Development of Enhanced Variant of BrahMos Missile Following Combat Success In Ops Sindoor

India has accelerated development of enhanced BrahMos supersonic cruise missile variants following the successful combat deployment during Operation Sindoor in May 2025. These upgrades include extended ranges of 450 km, 600 km, and 800 km, enabling strikes on distant targets such as Islamabad from Delhi, approximately 700 km away.

The missile, renowned for its Mach 3 speed and fire-and-forget guidance, proved devastating against six Pakistani airbases in that operation.

Originally limited to 290-300 km due to Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) restrictions, BrahMos gained extended capabilities after India's 2016 membership. BrahMos Aerospace, the Indo-Russian joint venture, first tested a 450 km BrahMos-ER variant in 2017 by increasing fuel capacity and modifying software.

Recent breakthroughs include a successful 800 km test of the BrahMos-LR in 2025, achieved through a longer airframe for larger ramjet fuel tanks while maintaining compatibility with existing platforms.

A lighter air-launched version, weighing 2.5 tonnes compared to the standard 3 tonnes for land and sea variants, has advanced for integration with the Su-30MKI fighter. This BrahMos-A, approved by the project design board, reduces payload strain on the aircraft's underbelly mount, with ground trials for longer-range models now in preparation. Full development of these variants targets completion within three years, with initial tests possibly by late 2027.

Operation Sindoor marked BrahMos's combat debut, launched on 7 May 2025 in retaliation for a terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir. Indian forces struck nine terrorist camps linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, using BrahMos alongside SCALP missiles and loitering munitions from Rafale jets. Pakistan acknowledged the strikes, leading to a ceasefire after mutual drone exchanges, underscoring BrahMos's elusiveness against radars due to its terrain-hugging, supersonic flight.

In parallel, India bolstered its nuclear triad with a successful K-4 submarine-launched ballistic missile test on 23 December 2025 from INS Arighaat in the Bay of Bengal off Visakhapatnam. The solid-fuelled K-4, named after Dr APJ Abdul Kalam, achieves 3,500 km range and carries a two-ton nuclear warhead, enhancing sea-based deterrence.

INS Arighaat, commissioned in August 2024 as India's third nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine, now operationalises this capability under the Strategic Forces Command.

These advancements reflect India's push for multi-domain precision strike and credible nuclear posture amid regional tensions. BrahMos-NG, a next-generation lightweight variant, nears flight trials in 2026, with production by 2027-28, further diversifying options. Ground trials for extended-range BrahMos proceed apace, promising induction by 2027 and reshaping strategic dynamics in South Asia.

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FATF Report Links Dual-Use Cargo Seized By India In 2020 To Pakistan Missile Agency

In 2020, Indian customs authorities seized dual-use equipment from a Pakistan-bound merchant vessel, the Da Cui Yun, at Kandla port in Gujarat.

The shipment was mis-declared as containing industrial dryers, but Indian investigators identified the items as autoclaves—equipment used for handling sensitive high-energy materials and for insulation and chemical coating of missile motors.

These autoclaves are critical components in missile development and are listed under the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) dual-use export control lists. The bill of lading for the seized cargo revealed a direct link between the importer and Pakistan’s National Development Complex (NDC), a defence and aerospace agency under Pakistan’s defence ministry heavily involved in the development of long-range ballistic missiles.

The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) included this case in its recent report highlighting vulnerabilities in the global financial system, particularly in the misuse of maritime and shipping sectors to transport dual-use goods and evade sanctions.

The report categorised the incident as a violation of export laws due to the non-declaration of dual-use goods and underscored the ongoing challenges in countering proliferation financing (PF) related to weapons of mass destruction (WMD).

Despite the serious threat posed by PF, only 16% of countries assessed by FATF have demonstrated high or substantial effectiveness in implementing targeted financial sanctions under United Nations Security Council resolutions.

The report warns that unless both public and private sectors enhance technical compliance and enforcement, illicit actors will continue exploiting weaknesses in controls to finance WMD proliferation.

This seizure and its inclusion in the FATF report serve as evidence of Pakistan’s efforts to circumvent international export controls to advance its missile program.

The NDC has been a pivotal entity in Pakistan’s missile development, and the shipment’s interception highlights the use of sophisticated methods to disguise and transport sensitive military technology.

The FATF report also signals increased scrutiny of state-sponsored proliferation financing, with Pakistan named alongside countries like North Korea and Iran as high-risk for such activities. India is expected to use this disclosure to bolster its case for renewed international sanctions or monitoring against Pakistan in upcoming FATF and Asia Pacific Group meetings.

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Development Status of Longer-Range And Highly Advanced BrahMos-NG (Next Generation)

The BrahMos missile a flagship program, is advancing on two significant fronts: the development of an extended-range BrahMos missile and the next-generation, sleeker BrahMos-NG (Next Generation) variant.

Extended-Range BrahMos

Originally, the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile had its range capped at 290 km due to Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) restrictions. After India joined the MTCR in 2016, these limitations were lifted, enabling the program to push the missile’s range further. The first step was the BrahMos-ER (Extended Range), which increased the reach to 450 km.

Recent breakthroughs have seen the successful testing of a new BrahMos variant with an 800 km range, marking a historic leap in India’s strategic strike capabilities. This longer-range missile, sometimes referred to as BrahMos-LR, retains compatibility with existing launch platforms across the Indian Army, Navy, and Air Force, allowing for seamless integration and rapid deployment.

The extended range significantly enhances India’s ability to strike deep into adversary territory, including all of Pakistan and parts of Chinese-occupied Tibet, while allowing the Indian Navy to target enemy warships and land installations from safer stand-off distances. The missile maintains its hallmark supersonic speed (Mach 2.8–3), pinpoint accuracy, and low radar visibility, making it a formidable deterrent and first-strike option.

Key Features of The Deadly Supersonic Cruise Missile

Precision Strike: It can strike target points with exact accuracy, with a Circular Error Probability (CEP) of less than 1 meter.

Cross-Platform Launch: The missile can be launched from air, sea, and submarine platforms.

Special Feature: BrahMos is equipped with a reduced radar signature, boosting its stealth and endurance.

Heavy Warhead: It has the potential to carry a warhead of up to 300 kg and is capable of destroying strong structures or targets.

Advanced Guidance: The missiles are armed with INS and GPS for guidance and have an active radar seeker.

Quick Reaction: The high speed of the missile lessens the enemy's reaction time and gives it a strategic upper hand.

BrahMos-NG (Next Generation)

Parallel to the range extension, the BrahMos-NG is in advanced stages of development. This next-generation missile is a compact, lighter, and more versatile version of the original BrahMos. Weighing around 1.33–1.5 tonnes—about half the weight of the current air-launched BrahMos—the NG variant is designed for broader deployment across multiple platforms. While the current air-launched BrahMos is primarily mounted on the Sukhoi Su-30MKI, the BrahMos-NG will be suitable for other fighter jets including the indigenous TEJAS, MiG-29K, and potentially the Rafale. Its reduced size and weight mean that a Su-30MKI could carry up to four BrahMos-NG missiles, while the TEJAS could carry two, greatly increasing the firepower per sortie.

Despite its smaller size, the BrahMos-NG will retain a range of 290 km and achieve higher speeds (up to Mach 3.5), with a reduced radar cross-section for enhanced stealth. It will also incorporate advanced technologies such as an AESA radar seeker, improving accuracy and survivability against modern air defence systems. The missile is expected to be ready for flight testing by 2026, with production projected to begin between 2027 and 2028.

The first successful test of the 800 km variant, known as BrahMos-LR, was recently conducted in the Bay of Bengal, significantly enhancing India’s ability to strike deep targets and bolstering its deterrence posture. This extended range allows the Indian military to engage targets across Pakistan and even into Chinese-occupied territories, while maintaining compatibility with existing launch platforms.

Technologically, the BrahMos-NG will feature a reduced radar cross-section, making it harder for enemy air defences to detect and intercept. It will also be equipped with an AESA radar for improved targeting, and its speed will be slightly higher than the original, reaching up to Mach 3.5. The missile is expected to be ready for flight testing within a year and for induction within two to three years. The Indian Air Force has already indicated a requirement for 400 BrahMos-NG missiles, with production facilities being set up to meet this demand.

Operationally, the BrahMos missile has already demonstrated its effectiveness. During the recent confrontation with Pakistan, the Indian Air Force used the air-launched BrahMos from Su-30MKI jets to conduct precision strikes on Pakistani air bases, successfully evading Chinese-supplied air defence systems. This combat debut underscored the missile’s speed, accuracy, and strategic value, reinforcing its status as a primary deterrent weapon for the Indian armed forces.

Operational Impact And Recent Use

The BrahMos air-launched version has already proven its effectiveness in recent operations. During the May 2025 confrontation with Pakistan, the Indian Air Force deployed BrahMos missiles from Su-30MKI jets to strike Pakistani air bases with precision, reportedly evading interception by enemy air defences. This operational debut not only validated the missile’s deterrent value but also demonstrated India’s readiness to employ advanced strategic assets when required.

Strategic Significance

Both the extended-range BrahMos and the BrahMos-NG represent a substantial leap in India’s offensive and deterrent capabilities. The former broadens the strategic reach of Indian forces across all domains, while the latter promises greater flexibility and rapid response options for the Air Force. Together, these advancements ensure that BrahMos remains at the forefront of India’s missile arsenal, capable of shaping regional power dynamics and strengthening national security.

The development of the longer-range BrahMos and the sleeker BrahMos-NG is firmly on track, with both programs poised to deliver significant enhancements to India’s military capabilities within the next few years.

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India's' Strong Retort To Sanctions On Its Firms Baffles U.S. Administration

The recent imposition of U.S. sanctions on 19 Indian companies has sparked a complex diplomatic response from India, which asserts that its firms operate within the framework of Indian law. These sanctions were part of a broader action targeting nearly 400 entities globally, aimed at disrupting Russia's access to critical military technologies amid its ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

The U.S. sanctions target companies accused of supplying dual-use technologies to Russia, which are essential for military applications. This includes firms from various countries, with India being notably highlighted due to the number of companies affected.

The U.S. Treasury claims these Indian firms facilitated Russia's military efforts by providing advanced technologies, including microelectronics and other critical components.

India's Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) emphasized its robust legal and regulatory framework concerning strategic trade and non-proliferation controls. MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal stated that India is a member of key multilateral export control regimes and effectively implements relevant United Nations Security Council sanctions.

 India is actively engaging with U.S. authorities to clarify the situation surrounding the sanctions. Jaiswal noted that the transactions in question do not violate Indian laws, indicating a commitment to maintaining compliance with international norms while asserting sovereignty over its trade practices.

Economists suggest that while the sanctions may signal a geopolitical message, their actual impact on India-U.S. relations is expected to be minimal. Indian companies affected by the sanctions have expressed confidence that their operations will remain unaffected, as many do not engage in business with the U.S..

Despite the tensions, India has maintained an open channel for dialogue with the U.S., discussing broader issues such as migration and security cooperation, which indicates a nuanced approach to navigating this diplomatic challenge.

India's retort to the U.S. sanctions reflects its strategic intent to uphold national interests while engaging in international trade norms. By asserting that its companies operate within legal boundaries and actively seeking clarification from U.S. authorities, India aims to mitigate potential fallout from these sanctions while reinforcing its commitment to responsible trade practices on the global stage.

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In Touch With U.S. To Clarify Issues: India On Sanctions On Indian Entities

India's Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) has confirmed its ongoing communication with U.S. authorities to clarify issues surrounding recent sanctions imposed on Indian entities. On November 2, MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal addressed the situation during a weekly briefing, stating that India is actively engaging with the U.S. to resolve concerns related to sanctions targeting 19 Indian companies and two individuals accused of supplying materials to Russia amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

Jaiswal emphasized that India operates under a "robust legal and regulatory framework" concerning strategic trade and non-proliferation controls, asserting that the transactions in question do not violate Indian laws. He noted India's membership in key multilateral export control regimes, including the Wassenaar Arrangement, the Australia Group, and the Missile Technology Control Regime, which underscores its commitment to non-proliferation.

The U.S. sanctions are part of a broader effort to disrupt networks supporting Russia's military-industrial base and include nearly 400 entities globally. The sanctions aim to prevent the flow of critical technologies necessary for Russia's military operations. Despite these actions, Jaiswal reassured that affected Indian companies are being informed about applicable export control provisions and any new measures that could impact their operations.

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'Clear And Consistent About Concern With Pakistan's Ballistic Missile Program': US

Washington: The US on Tuesday (local time) said that it has been "clear and consistent" regarding concerns with Pakistan's ballistic missile program for many years.

US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller expressed commitment to strengthening the international non-proliferation regime by taking action against networks supporting activities of proliferation concern.

While addressing a press briefing on Tuesday (local time), Miller said that the US' action last week follows the October 2023 and April 2024 designations of six Chinese entities and one Belarusian entity that have worked to supply Pakistan's missile program.

Asked about US concerns as sanctions have been imposed against suppliers of Pakistan's ballistic program, Miller responded, "The United States is committed to strengthening the international non-proliferation regime by taking action against networks supporting activities of proliferation concern. We have been clear and consistent about our concern with Pakistan's ballistic missile program for many years."

"The Executive Order action that was taken last week follows our October 2023 and April 2024 designations of six PRC entities and one Belarusian entity that have worked to supply Pakistan's missile program as well as numerous third country entities on the Department of Commerce entity list for decades," he added.

Miller further said that it has been the US' policy to deny support to Pakistan's long-range ballistic missile program. He said that the US will continue to use sanctions and other tools to ensure that its national security cannot be impacted and the US financial system cannot be used by proliferators.

In response to another question regarding US sanctions against Pakistan's ballistic missile program, Miller stated, "Pakistan has been a longtime partner of ours. I think what this action shows is, there continue to be places where we have disagreement and when we have disagreement, we won't hesitate to act to protect America's interests."

"It has been our policy to deny support to Pakistan's long-range ballistic missile program. We will continue to use our sanctions and other tools to ensure our national security cannot be impacted and that the US financial system cannot be used by proliferators," he added.

Last week, the US State Department imposed sanctions on China-based firms, for their supply to Pakistan's ballistic missile program under the missile sanctions laws.

"The Department of State is taking action against five entities and one individual that have been involved in the proliferation of ballistic missiles and controlled missile equipment and technology. Specifically, the Department of State is designating the Beijing Research Institute of Automation for Machine Building Industry (RIAMB) pursuant to Executive Order 13382, which targets proliferators of weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery," US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said in a press statement.

Notably, RIAMB has worked with Pakistan's National Development Complex (NDC), which the United States assesses is involved in the development and production of Pakistan's long-range ballistic missiles.

"Additionally, the United States is imposing sanctions under the missile sanctions laws (i.e., the Arms Export Control Act [AECA] and the Export Control Reform Act [ECRA]) on three PRC-based entities, one PRC individual, and a Pakistani entity for ballistic missile proliferation activities: PRC-based firms Hubei Huachangda Intelligent Equipment Company, Universal Enterprise Limited, and Xi'an Longde Technology Development Company Limited (aka Lontek); PRC individual Luo Dongmei (aka Steed Luo); and Pakistani-based entity Innovative Equipment," the press statement read further.

The State Department spokesperson further added that the US 'will continue to act' against proliferation and associated procurement activities of concern, wherever they occur.

"These sanctions are being imposed because these entities and individuals knowingly transferred equipment and technology controlled under the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) Annex, in support of MTCR Category I missile programs, to a non-MTCR country," he said in a statement.

The US had designated four entities targeting proliferators of weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery previously as well. These entities too had supplied missile-applicable items to Pakistan's ballistic missile program, including its long-range missile program.

The entities included Belarus-based Minsk Wheel Tractor Plant, which has worked to supply special vehicle chassis to Pakistan's long-range ballistic missile program. It further imposed sanctions on three Chinese entities, including, "Xi'an Longde Technology Development Company Limited", "Tianjin Creative Source International Trade Co Ltd" and "Granpect Company Limited."

(With Inputs From Agencies)

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Why India’s Latest Agni-V Test Has Everyone Talking: A Peek Into MIRV Tech, The Future of Missiles

India successfully test-fired Agni-V intercontinental ballistic missile with multiple warheads on March 11. It is a major breakthrough and will enhance India's strategic deterrence capabilities

by Ranjit Kumar

The successful test-firing of India’s Agni-V intercontinental ballistic missile with multiple warheads on March 11 has attracted the attention of strategic community the world over, as it not only will prove to be a game-changer in India’s missile weaponry, but also change the dynamics of missile powerplay among major powers. The Agni missile equipped with MIRV (Multiple Independently Targetable Re-Entry Vehicle) will make India invincible as no power on earth has yet achieved any capability to deflect the multiwarhead missiles and simultaneously intercept them. Hence, the MIRV-equipped Agni-V long range ballistic missile will give a new dimension to the deterrent capabilities of Indian military with strategic nuclear deterrence.

Though the MIRV technology was first introduced in 1970 by the US military, Indian achievement in this technology domain five decades later should by no means undermine the significance of its induction in Indian military. Such technologies are not available in open market, and missile powers — even those strategically aligned to India — have jealously safeguarded this technology. In the face of strict technology denial regimes like MTCR (Missile Technology Control Regime), the Indian defence scientists, who empowered India with this missile technology, deserve kudos for making India an unbeatable missile power. The MIRV warhead launch capability showcased to the world India’s political will to challenge any enemy as this will make India a real nuclear missile power and will strengthen India’s military muscle.

The development and testing of Agni-V MIRV has indeed put India in a higher league and will position India on the high table of missile powers. It’s a great leap forward in missile technology as only the US, Russia, China, the UK and France currently possess this capability. The grand Indian achievement has already conveyed a message to rival nuclear missile powers that India cannot be browbeaten and forced to submit to the expansionist agenda of its neighbours. This added firepower is commensurate with the status of the fifth largest world economy, which needed this offensive capability to deter India’s strategic rivals from challenging its rise in economic and strategic arena.

Though India had flight-tested its maiden Agni-V ballistic missile, with over 5,000-km range, almost a decade ago and is now a part of the Strategic Forces Command, it was well aware of efforts of the rivals to neutralise the Agni-V ballistic missiles with missile defence systems. China had first strengthened its ballistic missile defence system by inducting the Russian S-400 anti-missile systems, and has now developed its indigenous BMD. India is also on the same course to strengthen its ballistic missile defence capability with Russian S-400 along with its own indigenous BMD. But China has not acquired any BMD that can safeguard its territory from any Indian multi-warhead Agni ballistic missiles. In fact, not even super-advanced BMD power US has been able to acquire any such defensive mechanism to neutralise any attacking MIRV-equipped ballistic missile in its space.

True to its name — the mythological 'Divyastra' from the Mahabharat and Ramayana eras — the multi-warhead Agni-V has been appropriately designated, which when launched on the enemy territory will not rest until it has caused havoc on the enemy target. Hence, the thought of its existence in the Indian missile arsenal will be enough to make an enemy nation think twice before launching any nuclear attack on Indian soil. India has thus restored greater balance in the India-China nuclear deterrent relationship. The MIRV can also have decoys to fool the enemy defence systems. Even if the China-Pakistan combine forces India to face a two-front war situation, the MIRV Agni will put more confidence on the Indian military to simultaneously tackle the two nuclear armed neighbours.

This MIRV-armed Agni Inter Continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) acquired under Mission Divyastra can deliver missiles on targets spread over a few hundred kilometres apart, which will make the defender’s task almost impossible to stave off missiles in different directions and different targets. According to experts, the Agni MIRV can carry four to 12 missiles. The MIRV technology will increase the survivability of its nuclear tipped missiles. The MIRV-tipped Agni missiles will also enhance the confidence of Indian strategic planners to stoutly deal with the enemy as India has committed itself to no-first use doctrine.

Agni-VI 'Surya' In The Pipeline

In spite of India’s principal nuclear rivals China and Pakistan adopting the first use doctrine, the Indian military will be able to strike a devastating response to the enemy. Thus, by acquiring the MIRV Agni, India has strengthened its no-first-use doctrine by making the enemy nation aware of the consequences of first strike. This speaks of India’s maturity and non-aggressive policy.

India, as a responsible global power, has consistently displayed a sense of geopolitical balance and adherence to UN treaties. India has no hegemonistic designs but taking measures to defend its territories that are facing a volatile neighbourhood. Also, Indian strategic observers refute the contention of US expert Hans Kristensen, the director of Nuclear Information Project of Federation of American Scientists, who said Indian Agni-V would be an important target for an adversary to destroy before they could be launched to reduce the damage, and hence, the new Agni would pose a "bigger danger to India itself”. This shows the concern even in US strategic circles over the likely challenge from Indian missiles to the US. However, India’s missile program is purely defensive and in response to the threat it faces from the rival powers.

The long range Agni-V missiles will not only be able to get entire Pakistan within it’s strike range, but even China. India’s MIRV-equipped Agni-V missiles have been principally designed to take on the China challenge. Satellite images indicate more than 300 new missile silos. China has reportedly more than 500 operational nuclear warheads, with plans to expand it to 1,000 warheads by 2030. A cash-strapped and technologically backward Pakistan is also dreaming to acquire a multi-warhead missile. India is also responding and, in fact, knowledgeable sources contend that Indian missile range will be further augmented with a new series of Agni-VI version. This will ensure that India does not lag behind in the missile race with its present and future rivals.

The author is a senior journalist and strategic affairs analyst

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Ship From China Suspected To Contain Dual-Use Consignment For Pakistan's Nuclear Program Stopped At Mumbai Port

“A team of Defence Research and Development Organisation inspected the consignment and certified that it could be used by the neighbouring country for its nuclear program,” officials said.

“A Karachi-bound ship from China was stopped by Indian security agencies at Mumbai’s Nhava Sheva port on suspicion that it contained a dual-use consignment that could be used for Pakistan’s nuclear and ballistic missile program,” officials, in Mumbai, said on March 2.

The customs officials, based on an intelligence input, halted a Malta-flagged merchant ship — CMA CGM Attila — at the port en route Karachi on January 23 and inspected the consignment, which included a Computer Numerical Control (CNC) machine, originally manufactured by an Italian company.

CNC machines are basically controlled by a computer and produce a scale of efficiency, consistency and accuracy not possible manually.

“A team of Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) also inspected the consignment and certified that it could be used by the neighbouring country for its nuclear program,” officials said.

According to the experts, the equipment would be useful in manufacturing critical parts for Pakistan's missile development program.

Since 1996, CNC machines have been included in the Wassenaar Arrangement — an international arms control regime aimed at stopping the proliferation of equipment with both civilian and military uses. India is among the 42 member countries that exchange information on transfers of conventional weapons and dual-use goods and technologies. The CNC machine was used by North Korea in its nuclear program.

“The port officials, with specific intelligence, had alerted the Indian defence authorities who inspected the heavy cargo and reported their suspicions, after which the consignment was seized,” the officials said, adding that the seizure falls under the prevention of possible proliferation by Pakistan and China.

According to documents such as bills of loading and other details of the consignment, the consigner was mentioned as "Shanghai JXE Global Logistics Co Ltd" and consignee was "Pakistan Wings Pvt Ltd" of Sialkot.

“However, a deeper investigation by the security agencies indicated that the consignment, weighing 22,180 kg, was shipped by Taiyuan Mining Import and Export Co Limited and was meant for Cosmos Engineering in Pakistan,” the officials said.

This is not the first instance when Indian port officials have seized such dual-use military-grade items being shipped from China to Pakistan.

Cosmos Engineering, a Pakistani defence supplier, has been on a watchlist since March 12, 2022, when Indian authorities intercepted a shipment of Italian-made thermoelectric instruments, once again at the Nhava Sheva port.

The officials said there have been concerns that Pakistan might be utilising China as a conduit to acquire restricted items from Europe and the U.S., masking identities to evade detection.

Concerns have intensified over Chinese support for Pakistan's nuclear and missile programs, exemplified by a 2020 case where an industrial autoclave, crucial for missile production, was concealed as industrial equipment on a Chinese vessel bound for Pakistan.

The ongoing investigation aims to determine if the suspected Pakistani entities receiving these dual-use items are supplying these to the Defence Science and Technology Organisation (DESTO), responsible for much of Pakistan's defence research and development.

‘Despite assertions of commitment to international conventions by both Pakistan and China, the interception of such covert shipments underscores a persistent cooperation in potential proliferation activities, contravening global agreements and regulations,” the officials said.

In February 2020, China was supplying autoclave to Pakistan under the cover of "industrial dryer". The autoclave was seized from a Chinese ship, Dai Cui Yun, carried a Hong Kong flag and had left Jiangyin port on the Yangtze river in Jiangsu province of China, bound for Pakistan's Port Qasim.

The seizure of the autoclave, possibly meant to be used in the missile program of Pakistan, strengthens apprehensions that Pakistan is unabashedly indulging in illegal trade of missiles and violating the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR).

In June 2023, the U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) sanctioned three Chinese companies — General Technology Limited (autoclave supplier to Pakistan), Beijing Luo Luo Technology Development and Changzhou Utek Composite Company — for its involvement in supplying missile-applicable items to Pakistan's ballistic missile program.

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Modi’s Visit Proves India-US Ties No Longer Transactional

The deal on tech transfer is the outcome of decades of hard work — the first agreement on tech cooperation was signed between Ronald Reagan and Rajiv Gandhi in 1984

Time was when the United States imposed sanctions on third countries for transferring technology to India. For instance, in 1992, the US imposed sanctions on Russian space organisation Glavkosmos and the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) because of the ‘transfer of rocket engine technology’, which, in its view, violated the provisions of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR).

Much water has flowed down the Hudson since then, and cooperation in technology seems to be the next big ticket in India-US relations, as was evident from Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to the US.

For many years, despite the upswing in ties, technology transfer, particularly in the defence arena, was a problem in bilateral relations. New Delhi has complained about Washington’s refusal to transfer technology, seeing this as symbolising the US’ lack of trust in India. The US refusal to transfer technology has also affected defence deals in the past. Washington has been particularly reticent about dual-use technology, i.e. technology which has both civilian and defence applications.

But technology was the leitmotif in the Prime Minister’s visit. In the joint statement signed at the end of the visit, both sides affirmed that technology would play ‘the defining role’ in deepening relations and committed themselves to an ‘open, accessible, and secure technology ecosystem’. Technology is at the centrepiece even in the section in the joint statement on the defence partnership with both sides hailing the MoU between General Electric and Hindustan Aeronautics Limited to produce GE-F414 jet engines in India, for HAL’s TEJAS MK-2 as this would ‘enable greater transfer of US jet engine technology than ever before’.

The agreement on technology transfer is the outcome of many years of dialogue and hard work by officials from both countries, with the first agreement on technological cooperation signed between US President Ronald Reagan and Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi way back in November 1984. The Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET), which started in January, is clearly a breakthrough in US-India ties, hailed as being on par with the Indo-US nuclear deal. The agreement covers everything from space to semiconductors, high-performance computing to Artificial Intelligence. These are all important areas from India’s point of view as it wants to develop a sound manufacturing base for sustained growth in the new economy. It will also enhance defence interoperability and lead to more defence co-development and co-production between the two countries.

Technology has always been a major currency in international relations. As Modi said in his address to the joint session of US Congress: “Technology will determine the security, prosperity and leadership in the 21st century.” Scholars like Raju G C Thomas have pointed out the examples of South Korea and Japan to show how technological cooperation with the US in the defence sector can often promote technological superiority in the civilian sector, and help faster industrial growth. If these examples are anything to go by, India indeed is poised for rapid growth.

Among other important takeaways from the visit was the decision to resolve six unsettled disputes at the World Trade Organization. India’s plans to procure General Atomics MQ-9B HALE UAVs, which will be assembled in India, and enhance India’s ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance) capabilities was another key takeaway. Boeing’s decision to invest $100 million in infrastructure and pilot training in the backdrop of Air India’s recent deal to buy 220 jets from Boeing is also significant. Another announcement was made by US semiconductor technology and chipmaker Micron Technology, Inc, which said it would invest around $825 million in a new chip assembly and test facility in Gujarat. The launch of the US-India Defense Acceleration Ecosystem (INDUS-X), a network of universities, startups, industry, and think tanks to facilitate joint defence technology innovation, and co-production of advanced defence technology is one more important takeaway.

Overall, the visit was a success for both sides, with several important breakthroughs made. The fact that the White House feted Modi despite concerns in the US over India’s position on the Russian invasion of Ukraine and human rights, shows that the India-US relationship is no longer transactional. Beyond values, it is built on India’s need for Western technology to meet its security and developmental challenges, and on the mutual need to manage the rise of China.

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Here Is How India Developed Technologies To Bypass Sanctions Against Its Missile Program

After successfully testing the Prithvi missile in 1988, and the Agni missile in 1989, India faced the sanctions and restrictions of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR). To overcome thIs, the DRDO’s Integrated Guided Missile Development Program (IGMDP) team brought together several DRDO laboratories and various industrial players to develop, manufacture and improve these sub-systems indigenously.

While India is now looking to sell missiles to the world, just four decades ago the country had been facing sanctions and restrictions from international bodies to develop its own missile program. After independence, India lacked the indigenous capabilities to design or manufacture its own missile systems or weapons and relied on foreign weapon exports. India’s government sought to rectify this with the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) being given the responsibility for developing homegrown technology. In a recent podcast with ANI, Dr G Satheesth Reddy, the former DRDO Chief and current scientific advisor to the Ministry of Defence, said how India worked on a mission mode to overcome the international restrictions.

Over the next three decades, India made leaps and bounds in technological progress in missile development. After successfully testing the Prithvi missile in 1988, and the Agni missile in 1989, India faced the sanctions and restrictions of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) on importing military technologies. MTCR is an informal body of nations that seeks to reduce nuclear and weapon proliferation. The organisation’s members, then Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK and the US, sanctioned components and certain materials to stop India’s missile program.

“The various subcomponents or the critical systems which were dependent on foreign nations that had become restricted,” said Dr G Satheesth Reddy, “But, I think that had helped the country and we had to develop ourselves so that was taken as a mission,” Dr Reddy said to Smita Prakash in the ANI Podcast.

The DRDO spearheaded the mission to indigenously develop all the critical subsystems or components that were needed for India’s guided missile program. To overcome the sanctions, the DRDO’s Integrated Guided Missile Development Program (IGMDP) team, which was led by former President Dr APJ Abdul Kalam, brought together several DRDO laboratories, various industrial players as well as educational institutions to develop, manufacture and improve these subsystems indigenously, Dr Reddy revealed.

While the sanctions did slow down progress in the short term as teams had to deal with a lack of components when existing stocks ran out, India was able to quickly overcome the hurdle. India’s ease in dealing with the sanctions came from the fact that when India started the IGMDP, the top leadership had also decided to work on subsystems and critical components in parallel. This allowed India to develop the necessary technical and manufacturing know-how for many components, which could later be used to also develop and manufacture the sanctioned components.

As a result, India was able to continue its missile program, developing a large variety of missiles for different tasks (ATGMs, SAMs, ATAs, etc.) for a variety of various range applications. While the sanctions placed on India are no longer there, India joined the MTCR in 2016, the country still remains highly self-sufficient in missile development.

“Today, I can say that the indigenous content in our missiles programs is very, very high. I can definitely say that we are not dependent on any critical subsystems and things like that from anyone. All these things are developed here in the country and the industry is able to produce them,” Dr Reddy said. The sanctions were just one of the key turning points in India’s missile development program. The 1962 Sino-Indian War was the first major turning point as the Indian government now decided that having strategically guided missiles, especially Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs), was essential to prevent further Chinese aggression. Though early projects like Project Devil and Project Valiance ended inclusively, they were essential as the second turning point as they allowed India to develop the technical and material know-how for missile research and development.

One of the next and major turning points was the elevation of Dr Kalam as the head of the IGMDP. It was through his leadership that the DRDO was able to convince the government to work on not one but five different missile systems at the same time. These were the short-range Surface to Surface Missile (SSM) ‘Prithvi’, the long-range Surface to Surface Missile (SSM) ‘Agni’, the medium-range Surface to Air Missile (SAM) ‘Akash’, the short-range Surface to Air Missile (SAM) ‘Trishul’, and the Anti-tank Guided Missile (ATGM) ‘Nag’.

At the recently concluded Aero India 2023 exhibition, Prime Minister Narendra Modi talked about his vision of India achieving an ambitious defence export goal of $5 billion within the next two years from the $1.5 billion that it stands at today. One of the most important components to achieve this target is the sale of the Indo-Russian jointly developed supersonic missile, the BrahMos. With interest from several countries in the Middle East as well as Asia, including a $375 million contract to provide four BrahMos batteries to the Philippines, the BrahMos missile is a testament to the success of India’s missile program.

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Agni-V Makeover - Pak Media

Given the Indian missile testing spree throughout 2022, it seems to have abandoned restraint in nuclear capable missile development and testing. The recent test of Agni-V (15 Dec 22) at an extended range of 5400 km poses regional as well as global concerns. It is also being reported that the missile can even go beyond 7000 km as its overall weight has been reduced by 20%. Being a member of Hague Code of Conduct (HCOC) and Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), India stands in violation of its political commitments to curb missile proliferation and exercise maximum possible restraint in development, testing and deployment of missiles. Interestingly, the country is nowhere close on these three counts.

India not only has the fastest growing nuclear program but also fastest missile testing record in the region. India and North Korea have tested maximum number of missiles in the outgoing year. Although the motivation for missile testing is different for both countries; however, it reflects a similar threatening and armament-oriented mindset. North Korea’s missile testing is a clear political and strategic signal to the U.S. administration vis-à-vis its calls for denuclearization of Korean Peninsula. While Indian missile testing could be seen as signalling towards China – backed by the West for its own vested interests, the increasing ranges of Indian missiles should be equally concerning for the U.S. like the threats from North Korean missile program.

The maximum range of Agni-V always remained contested. Some assessments indicate that it may be capable of hitting targets up to 8,000 km. Even though Agni-V can cover entire China, the Indian DRDO is working on developing even a longer-range missile Agni-VI capable of carrying warhead beyond 10,000 km. It is believed that India is unlikely to pursue capabilities beyond China and that the requirement for ranges should be calculated from farthest point in the operating country till the farthest point in adversary’s landmass. However, the same criterion is not applied when analysts assess the rationale for development of Pakistan’s Shaheen-3 missile that barely reaches farthest points in India. Anything exceeding the stated objective of deterrence vis-à-vis China would indicate either a technological competition driven by status or catering for a deterrent capability to address potential threats from across the globe. At the doctrinal level, missiles with ranges up to 10,000 km clearly go beyond what may be required for maintaining a credible minimum deterrent vis-à-vis China and Pakistan.

Indian scientific leadership has been long indicating their intent of integrating Multiple Independently-targetable Re-entry Vehicles (MIRV) capability in the Agni-V and a future Agni-VI missile. The recent test of Agni-V is also reported to be that of Hypersonic Glide Vehicle (HGV). The fact that the weight of missile is reduced by 20% coincides with one of the main subsystem requirements of HGV to have a light-weight airframe. HGVs, a category of hypersonic weapons, are usually launched on top of ballistic missiles which then glide back through the atmosphere to their target at hypersonic speeds (5 Mach and above). HGVs are capable of carrying multiple warheads and are highly maneuverable, designed to not just reduce the flight time but also to avoid existing missile defense systems. Testing and integration of HGV capability in the, currently, longest-range Indian missile could be an indication of an upcoming demonstration of MIRV capability. MIRV capable missiles are generally seen as a countermeasure for BMD systems but would be an overkill given the absence of an operational BMD system in China and Pakistan.

Introduction of newer technologies like HGV and MIRV capable missile systems will make resumption of nuclear testing a necessity for India. ICBMs like Agni-V and Agni-VI with respective ranges of 7,000 and 12,000 km are not suitably complimented by the currently claimed maximum yield of 25 KT. There are also significant domestic pressures on India regarding the disputed success of its claimed thermonuclear tests. Hence, Indian position not to sign CTBT is consequential. During the recently held 77th session of the First Committee, India voted against Operative Paragraph (OP) 19 of the resolution on nuclear disarmament, which calls for early entry into force, universalization and strict observance of the CTBT.

In its eagerness to enter the elite club, India appears to be dismissive of regional realities in the form of fragile deterrence stability, existing disputes and a perpetually dysfunctional state of relationship with its nuclear armed neighbours. Although India has made a commitment in its nuclear doctrine to work towards global nuclear disarmament and maintains this stance at international forums; its actions point towards arms race which runs counter to the objective of disarmament.

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