US Vice-President J.D. Vance’s ongoing visit to India has emerged as a pivotal moment for both nations, coming at a time when the threat of steep US tariffs looms and trade negotiations are at a sensitive stage.

Although the official reason for Vance’s four-day trip is personal—accompanied by his Indian-origin wife, Usha, and their children—his scheduled meetings with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and National Security Adviser Ajit Doval underscore the visit’s diplomatic weight.

Vance’s presence in India, as the highest-ranking US official to visit since President Donald Trump’s inauguration, is being interpreted in New Delhi as a strong signal that the US values its relationship with India and is open to resolving contentious trade issues. The timing is critical: the US recently imposed a 26% tariff on Indian imports as part of a broader push against countries with large trade surpluses, but this has been temporarily reduced to 10% for 90 days, giving both sides a narrow window to negotiate before the higher tariffs take effect.

Indian officials and analysts see Vance’s visit as an opportunity to demonstrate India’s seriousness about a trade deal, hoping to fast-track negotiations and avert the tariff hike. The bilateral trade relationship is significant, with the US being India’s largest trading partner and a two-way trade volume of $129 billion in 2024, heavily favouring India. Both sides have expressed ambitions to quadruple trade to $500 billion by 2030, but progress has been hampered by complex issues around tariffs, market access, and sensitive sectors like agriculture.

While Vance is not directly responsible for trade policy, his close ties to President Trump and his influence in Washington make him a key interlocutor. His visit is expected to help create the political momentum needed to address difficult issues, particularly as negotiators work toward an “early tranche” of a trade agreement that could be announced before September, possibly timed with a major Quad summit in Delhi. The optics of Vance’s family engaging in cultural activities and donning Indian attire further reinforce the message of goodwill and high-level engagement.

However, significant hurdles remain. The US is pressing India to lower tariffs on products like whiskey, automobiles, and farm goods, while India is wary of exposing its agricultural sector to foreign competition, which could trigger domestic backlash. Indian farmers’ unions and opposition politicians have already voiced concerns about the impact of any deal on local incomes and visa issues for Indian professionals.

Experts caution that while Vance’s visit is a positive step, it may not yield immediate breakthroughs. If no concrete announcement emerges during his stay, it would indicate that negotiations will take more time, reflecting the complexity and sensitivity of the issues at stake. Nonetheless, the visit has clearly injected new energy into the process and is seen as a crucial opportunity for both sides to bridge differences and avert a damaging trade conflict.

Vance’s visit is helping to fast-track trade talks by signalling high-level US engagement and political will, but whether it will be enough to avert the Trump tariff threat depends on the ability of both sides to find compromise on contentious issues in the limited time available.

Agencies