The political landscape of Bangladesh has undergone a dramatic transformation since August 2024, when widespread protests led by a coalition of student groups, civil society activists, and radical Islamist factions forced the resignation of long-time Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. In her place, Nobel Peace Prize laureate Muhammed Yunus was appointed as interim leader, initially raising hopes for reform and national unity.

However, these hopes have increasingly given way to concerns about the rise of Islamist influence and a strategic realignment in Bangladesh's foreign policy that threatens regional stability, particularly in relation to India.

Under Hasina, Bangladesh maintained a secular agenda, banning the Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) due to its controversial role in the 1971 Liberation War and its alleged incitement to violence. Hasina’s government also worked to protect minority rights and sustain close ties with India. In contrast, Yunus’s administration has reversed these policies by lifting the ban on Jamaat-e-Islami and adopting a more tolerant stance toward Islamist groups.

This shift has emboldened Islamist factions, leading to increased mob violence targeting Hindu minorities and the Ahmadiyya Muslim sect, fuelling fears of growing religious intolerance and sectarian violence within Bangladesh.

The rise of Islamist forces under Yunus is further exacerbated by the appointment of government officials with known Islamist radical affiliations, such as Nasimul Gani, linked to Hizb ut-Tahrir, and Mohammad Mahfuz Alam, who orchestrated protests against Hasina’s secular government.

This has alarmed regional observers, especially India, which remains vigilant against Islamist insurgencies in its north-eastern states bordering Bangladesh. Indian security agencies have heightened their preparedness to counter potential threats stemming from the increased influence of Islamist groups and the suspected involvement of Pakistan’s ISI in supporting radical elements within Bangladesh.

On the foreign policy front, Yunus has initiated a significant pivot away from Bangladesh’s traditional alignment with India toward closer ties with China and Pakistan. During a recent visit to Beijing, Yunus offered China strategic access to the Bay of Bengal through Bangladesh, a move that has raised alarms in New Delhi due to potential threats to India’s maritime security.

This realignment reflects a broader strategic shift influenced by regional power dynamics and economic considerations, as Bangladesh seeks to diversify its international partnerships beyond India. However, this shift risks entangling Bangladesh in China’s expanding influence in South Asia, reminiscent of Sri Lanka’s "debt trap" situation, and could undermine India’s longstanding investments and diplomatic efforts in Bangladesh.

The combination of rising Islamist influence and strategic realignment poses complex challenges for regional stability. The resurgence of Islamist groups threatens to deepen Hindu-Muslim tensions within Bangladesh and across the border in India’s north-eastern states, potentially leading to reciprocal communal violence and displacement.

Simultaneously, Bangladesh’s growing closeness with China and Pakistan threatens to isolate India strategically in its own neighbourhood, undermining regional cooperation frameworks and security architectures.

Indian analysts and diplomats emphasise the urgent need for New Delhi to enhance its diplomatic engagement with Dhaka through increased economic aid, trade concessions, and security cooperation to counterbalance China’s influence and address the internal challenges posed by Islamist radicalization. Failure to do so could result in Bangladesh becoming a fault line of instability rather than a bridge of cooperation in South Asia.

The rise of Mohammed Yunus to power in Bangladesh has triggered significant political and strategic shifts. His administration’s tolerance of Islamist groups and the foreign policy pivot toward China and Pakistan have raised fears of increased religious intolerance, regional destabilization, and a weakening of Bangladesh-India ties. The evolving situation demands careful diplomatic navigation to preserve peace and stability in South Asia.

ANI