In the aftermath of the deadly Pahalgam terror attack that claimed 26 lives, predominantly tourists, India has undertaken a series of stringent diplomatic and strategic measures against Pakistan. Among the most consequential actions is the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), a landmark water-sharing agreement signed in 1960, and the closure of the Baglihar and Salal dams on the Chenab River, severely restricting the downstream flow of water into Pakistan.

The Indus Waters Treaty, brokered by the World Bank, has for over six decades governed the allocation and management of the Indus river system, which includes the Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej rivers.

The treaty divides usage rights between India and Pakistan, with Pakistan’s agriculture and economy heavily reliant on these river flows, particularly from the Chenab and Jhelum. Historically, the IWT has survived multiple wars and periods of high tension between the two nations, often being cited as a rare example of sustained cooperation.

Following the Pahalgam attack, India accused Pakistan of supporting cross-border terrorism and announced the suspension of the IWT, declaring its intention to halt water flows to Pakistan until credible action is taken against terrorism. As a direct consequence, authorities closed all gates of the Baglihar and Salal dams, which are critical for regulating the Chenab’s flow into Pakistan. This move has resulted in an unprecedented drop in water levels downstream, with significant stretches of the Chenab riverbed running dry for the first time in living memory.

The immediate impact has been dramatic in Jammu and Kashmir’s Akhnoor and Reasi regions, where the Chenab, which typically flows at a height of 25–30 feet, has reduced to just 1.5–2 feet in some areas. Locals have expressed strong support for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s decision, with many stating they do not want a single drop of water supplied to Pakistan and backing the government’s tough stance on cross-border terrorism. There have also been instances of residents being able to walk across the riverbed, highlighting the severity of the water reduction.

Despite the drastic reduction, authorities have maintained minimal water releases from a single gate at both dams to prevent significant harm to marine wildlife, suggesting that environmental considerations are being factored into the ongoing water regulation.

Pakistan has voiced grave concern over the move, warning that any disruption to its water supply would be viewed as an “act of war” and threatening reciprocal actions, including the possible withdrawal from all bilateral agreements with India.

The water shortage is expected to have a direct impact on Pakistan’s upcoming Kharif crop season, with projections of a 21% deficit due to the reduced Chenab flows.

In addition to water-related measures, India has downgraded diplomatic ties, expelled Pakistani diplomats, and closed its primary land border with Pakistan, escalating the standoff to a new level.

India’s decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty and close the Baglihar and Salal dams marks a significant escalation in its response to cross-border terrorism.

The resulting near-dry stretches of the Chenab River downstream of the dams have underscored the strategic leverage India holds over Pakistan’s water supply, with profound implications for bilateral relations, regional stability, and the livelihoods of millions dependent on the Indus river system. The situation remains fluid, with both nations on high alert and the potential for further diplomatic or on-ground escalation.

ANI